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And the pendulum swings back


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#1    Startraveler

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Posted 17 September 2008 - 11:16 PM

McCain had a good two weeks there but it appears his Palin/post-convention bounce is over. The RCP average--for the first time since September 6--no longer shows a McCain lead. The two men are now tied 45.7-45.7, though if you look at the list of polls a trend is clear. The oldest polls (taken over periods more than a week ago) showing a McCain lead are buoying McCain's average. Given the latest polls listed, it seems likely we'll be seeing Obama back in the blue in the next few days. Expect the battleground states to follow the national polls shortly after.

We're already seeing a hint of this in battleground polls released by CNN today:

Florida: 48-48
Ohio: 49-47 Obama
North Carolina: 48-47 McCain
Indiana: 51-45 McCain
Wisconsin: 50-47 Obama

Polls of polls in some states still show McCain doing slightly better because they incorporate polls taken during McCain's golden two weeks. It'll be interesting to see how polls taken over the next weeks shake out. But I think the McCain ascent has stopped and has now shifted into reverse.




#2    Caesar

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 07:00 AM

Startraveler on Sep 17 2008, 07:16 PM, said:

McCain had a good two weeks there but it appears his Palin/post-convention bounce is over. The RCP average--for the first time since September 6--no longer shows a McCain lead. The two men are now tied 45.7-45.7, though if you look at the list of polls a trend is clear. The oldest polls (taken over periods more than a week ago) showing a McCain lead are buoying McCain's average. Given the latest polls listed, it seems likely we'll be seeing Obama back in the blue in the next few days. Expect the battleground states to follow the national polls shortly after.

We're already seeing a hint of this in battleground polls released by CNN today:

Florida: 48-48
Ohio: 49-47 Obama
North Carolina: 48-47 McCain
Indiana: 51-45 McCain
Wisconsin: 50-47 Obama

Polls of polls in some states still show McCain doing slightly better because they incorporate polls taken during McCain's golden two weeks. It'll be interesting to see how polls taken over the next weeks shake out. But I think the McCain ascent has stopped and has now shifted into reverse.

I like the real clear politics sites you used, thats the one I ckeck up on. I haven't seen any bounce for Obama on that site. I must say that it all seems really close now since the convention bounce its been so even going by the Electoral College polls.

RealClearPolitics Electoral College

Also if you notice that CNN uses registered voters and everyone elses uses likely voters. LV polls are much better and show a much better picture of whats going on.

Edited by Caesar, 18 September 2008 - 07:24 AM.


#3    AROCES

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 08:48 AM

Startraveler on Sep 17 2008, 11:16 PM, said:

McCain had a good two weeks there but it appears his Palin/post-convention bounce is over. The RCP average--for the first time since September 6--no longer shows a McCain lead. The two men are now tied 45.7-45.7, though if you look at the list of polls a trend is clear. The oldest polls (taken over periods more than a week ago) showing a McCain lead are buoying McCain's average. Given the latest polls listed, it seems likely we'll be seeing Obama back in the blue in the next few days. Expect the battleground states to follow the national polls shortly after.

We're already seeing a hint of this in battleground polls released by CNN today:

Florida: 48-48
Ohio: 49-47 Obama
North Carolina: 48-47 McCain
Indiana: 51-45 McCain
Wisconsin: 50-47 Obama

Polls of polls in some states still show McCain doing slightly better because they incorporate polls taken during McCain's golden two weeks. It'll be interesting to see how polls taken over the next weeks shake out. But I think the McCain ascent has stopped and has now shifted into reverse.

Swings back???
Obama had a good lead on polls that was gone.
You just making yourself feel good here .


#4    Startraveler

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 12:14 PM

Quote

I haven't seen any bounce for Obama on that site.


Did you follow the link? He's now up, from being tied when I posted this yesterday. Polls go in descending order of date:

RCP Average 09/07 - 09/16 -- 45.3 46.2 Obama +0.9

CBS News/NY Times 09/12 - 09/16 LV 44 49 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 09/11 - 09/16 987 LV 45 49 Obama +4
Gallup Tracking 09/14 - 09/16 2787 RV 45 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen Tracking 09/14 - 09/16 3000 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/14 - 09/16 909 RV 42 45 Obama +3
Reuters/Zogby 09/11 - 09/13 1008 LV 45 47 Obama +2
Newsweek 09/10 - 09/11 1038 RV 46 46 Tie
Battleground* 09/07 - 09/11 1000 LV 48 44 McCain +4
FOX News 09/08 - 09/09 900 RV 45 42 McCain +3

The latest poll, for example, the NYT poll showing a 5-point Obama lead, is based on likely voters. As is the Q-poll before it showing Obama up 4.

As I said, watch for the electoral college map to start swinging to better reflect the change in the national polls (the EC tends to lag the national polls).


#5    Aristocrates

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 11:09 PM

AROCES on Sep 18 2008, 04:48 AM, said:

Swings back???
Obama had a good lead on polls that was gone.
You just making yourself feel good here .


...?

If you don't claim your humanity you will become a statistic.

#6    danielost

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 11:11 PM

only 30% of the people who registered to vote will vote maybe.

I am a mormon.  If I don't use mormons believe, those my beliefs only.
I do not go to church haven't for thirty years.
There are other mormons on this site. So if I have misspoken about the beliefs. I welcome their input.
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#7    Splodgenessabounds

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 11:24 PM

danielost on Sep 19 2008, 12:11 AM, said:

only 30% of the people who registered to vote will vote maybe.


So 70% of Americans are quite smart after all.


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#8    Startraveler

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 11:24 PM

danielost on Sep 18 2008, 07:11 PM, said:

only 30% of the people who registered to vote will vote maybe.


That would be shocking, considering that 89 percent of registered voters voted in 2004 and 86 percent of them voted in 2000.


#9    MasterPo

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 11:32 PM

Given the situation - an unpopular President, unpopular war, weak economy, falling stock market, etc - those numbers are terrible for Obama.

He should be sweeping the floor with McCaine if he really is being accepted and believed by the electorate.


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#10    BlindMessiah

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 11:33 PM

Majikthise on Sep 19 2008, 12:24 AM, said:

So 70% of Americans are quite smart after all.

No... wrong on several levels. Boycotting the electoral process is giving away your rights. In addition, your math is off. He claimed that 30% of registered voters will vote. All americans aren't registered voters so the 70% figure you used is inaccurate.


#11    MasterPo

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 11:40 PM

BlindMessiah on Sep 18 2008, 07:33 PM, said:

No... wrong on several levels. Boycotting the electoral process is giving away your rights. In addition, your math is off. He claimed that 30% of registered voters will vote. All americans aren't registered voters so the 70% figure you used is inaccurate.


Agreed.

Whether you like the candidates or not the reality is the next President will be McCaine or Obama. So you can either participate and have a say or stay out and be quiet with whoever gets elected.

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#12    Splodgenessabounds

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Posted 19 September 2008 - 12:03 AM

BlindMessiah on Sep 19 2008, 12:33 AM, said:

No... wrong on several levels. Boycotting the electoral process is giving away your rights. In addition, your math is off. He claimed that 30% of registered voters will vote. All americans aren't registered voters so the 70% figure you used is inaccurate.


Okay...

70% of Americans who are registered to vote are quite smart after all.  Happy Now. grin2.gif

Quote

So you can either participate and have a say or stay out and be quiet with whoever gets elected.


So you're forcing someone to vote for a candidate (could be any of 'em) they don't want otherwise they can't have an opinion on who gets elected.  I don't agree with that, I'm not voting because I can't be bothered to.  If you can't be bothered then yes, fine, you have no right to have an opinion on whoever gets elected.  But that isn't why I'm not voting, I abstain because I have no faith in politicians, because I don't believe any of the candidates deserve to have the view from the oval office.  So why, under those circumstances, should i have to give up my right of opinion because I don't vote.

It's a case of either voting for someone you don't believe in or, not voting and having you political beliefs suspended for 4 years.  IMO that isnt fair.

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#13    BlindMessiah

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Posted 19 September 2008 - 12:07 AM

You can always support a third party as I do. That is making your voice heard. Boycotting does nothing.


#14    MasterPo

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Posted 19 September 2008 - 12:08 AM

Majikthise on Sep 18 2008, 08:03 PM, said:

So you're forcing someone to vote for a candidate (could be any of 'em) they don't want otherwise they can't have an opinion on who gets elected.


Basically, yes.

You can cry all you want but the reality is the next President is going to be McCaine or Obama. Wishing there was another candidate at this point is just fantasy at best, being childish at worse. Maybe next time around but not this one. So you can either make the best of the situation or stay out of it and don't complain with what you get.



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#15    Splodgenessabounds

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Posted 19 September 2008 - 12:18 AM

MasterPo on Sep 19 2008, 01:08 AM, said:

Basically, yes.


Fair enough, that was blunt  grin2.gif  

Quote

You can always support a third party as I do. That is making your voice heard. Boycotting does nothing.


Remind's me of the Simpsons.

Kang:  It's a two party system, you have to vote for someone

Man:  Well I believe I'll vote for a third party

Kodus:  Go ahead, throw your vote away


"It doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat.  As long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat."
Deng Xiaoping

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules."
Walter Sobchak - The Big Lebowski




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