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AOL Straw Poll shows commanding McCain lead


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#16    Guardsman Bass

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:36 PM

This poll is completely unscientific. For one thing, as Fluffybunny pointed out, it's a self-selecting group; the only people who vote in it are those people who visit the AOL website and bother to pay attention to AOL straw polls. That's not exactly representative of the whole population, now is it? That's why real pollsters actually use randomly drawn samples of sufficient size in order to get an accurate representation of the populace's views.

This reminds me of when Ron Paul supporters would tout that Ron Paul "won" the debates based off of self-selecting online "polls" like this.

"You say that it is your custom to burn widows. Very well. We also have a custom: when men burn a woman alive, we tie a rope around their necks and we hang them. Build your funeral pyre; beside it, my carpenters will build a gallows. You may follow your custom. And then we will follow ours." -Sir Charles Napier

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#17    Whangarei

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:43 PM

There is no way McCain is winning this election.  Unless Palin blows the socks off of Biden in a debate,  which you know I wouldn't be surprised if it happened,  that would be truly interesting from a historical perspective.  huh.gif  But unless that happens there is no way McCain is going to win.  Barr would win before McCain does.  And interestingly, Gore won the popular vote, so I don't know why they keep polling the popular vote as if its an indication of who is going to win.  rolleyes.gif

Tennessee would be a better indication than all of this.  Interestingly Tennessee has voted for nearly every candidate that won the election.  And more interesting is that they didn't vote for Gore,  even though he was from there!  Here are some other ways of predicting the winner!  laugh.gif

http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/blpredict.htm

http://www.maddogproductions.com/ds_election2004.htm

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#18    Michelle

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 04:47 PM

If I may add...you don't have to look on a website for the poll if your server is AOL. It has been on their main page for months.

For the record, I don't put a lot of stock in polls, but isn't AOL one of the largest servers in the world?

Edited by Michelle, 29 September 2008 - 04:47 PM.


#19    Michelle

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:00 PM

Whangarei on Sep 29 2008, 05:43 PM, said:

Tennessee would be a better indication than all of this.  Interestingly Tennessee has voted for nearly every candidate that won the election.  And more interesting is that they didn't vote for Gore,  even though he was from there!  Here are some other ways of predicting the winner!  laugh.gif

http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/blpredict.htm

http://www.maddogproductions.com/ds_election2004.htm


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#20    BlindMessiah

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:46 PM

Guardsman Bass on Sep 29 2008, 04:36 PM, said:

This poll is completely unscientific. For one thing, as Fluffybunny pointed out, it's a self-selecting group; the only people who vote in it are those people who visit the AOL website and bother to pay attention to AOL straw polls. That's not exactly representative of the whole population, now is it? That's why real pollsters actually use randomly drawn samples of sufficient size in order to get an accurate representation of the populace's views.

This reminds me of when Ron Paul supporters would tout that Ron Paul "won" the debates based off of self-selecting online "polls" like this.

No, Ron Paul "won" the debate via the hosting news channel counting via text. Ron Paul received more text. This simply says that Ron Paul supports are more likely to text CNN, Fox News etc after debates than the average person.

In fact, I quote Sean Hannity, "I don't care what our poll says, Ron Paul didn't win that debate." This is following the Fox News debates for the republican primaries.

Edited by BlindMessiah, 29 September 2008 - 05:48 PM.


#21    twpdyp

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:50 PM

Quote

This is ridiculous. In order to believe this poll is accurate, then ya gotta believe Obama's own state, Illinois, is voting for McCain. LOL. This poll is a waste of time.

I am from Illinois and I would not vote for Obama no way no how. If he were the only candidate I simply would not vote.....

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#22    questionmark

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:50 PM

Michelle on Sep 29 2008, 07:47 PM, said:

If I may add...you don't have to look on a website for the poll if your server is AOL. It has been on their main page for months.

For the record, I don't put a lot of stock in polls, but isn't AOL one of the largest servers in the world?


Where everybody, concerned or not, can vote... very "scientific" and easy to manipulate, all you have to do is delete the AOL cookie and vote again....

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#23    Michelle

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 06:02 PM

questionmark on Sep 29 2008, 06:50 PM, said:

Where everybody, concerned or not, can vote... very "scientific" and easy to manipulate, all you have to do is delete the AOL cookie and vote again....


Okay, so shoot me....I'm not a computer geek. grin2.gif


#24    libertyworld

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 07:41 PM

Never claimed it was scientific or perfect or the last word.
On the contraty, I acknowledged such things right off.
Just different in some ways than most conventional polls.
And (I think) more democrats are online and use AOL than repubs anyway.
Just an interesting addition to the mix, and interesting as always to see how UM'ers respond.

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#25    Guardsman Bass

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 07:59 PM

BlindMessiah on Sep 29 2008, 11:46 AM, said:

No, Ron Paul "won" the debate via the hosting news channel counting via text. Ron Paul received more text. This simply says that Ron Paul supports are more likely to text CNN, Fox News etc after debates than the average person.


Either way, it is still a self-selecting group; only those people who could be arsed to actually text in their vote were counted, and they aren't exactly representative of the whole population.

"You say that it is your custom to burn widows. Very well. We also have a custom: when men burn a woman alive, we tie a rope around their necks and we hang them. Build your funeral pyre; beside it, my carpenters will build a gallows. You may follow your custom. And then we will follow ours." -Sir Charles Napier

"The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted."   D.H. Lawrence

#26    BlindMessiah

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Posted 29 September 2008 - 11:21 PM

Guardsman Bass on Sep 29 2008, 07:59 PM, said:

Either way, it is still a self-selecting group; only those people who could be arsed to actually text in their vote were counted, and they aren't exactly representative of the whole population.

It isn't self-selecting. It's a very stupid polling method. For example, on the debate last night, Fox hosted and McCain won 84% due to Fox news have conservative viewers. Same would happen on a MSNBC hosted debate for Obama. It's clearly a defective method, but that isn't the fault of Ron Paul supporters.


#27    IrishAidan07

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Posted 30 September 2008 - 12:47 AM

twpdyp on Sep 29 2008, 01:50 PM, said:

I am from Illinois and I would not vote for Obama no way no how. If he were the only candidate I simply would not vote.....


And your personal info, "GOP For Life," makes that apparent. But the reality is that most - not all - candidates win their home state, especially when their home state typically votes for their party in the first place.

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#28    Guardsman Bass

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Posted 30 September 2008 - 01:14 AM

BlindMessiah on Sep 29 2008, 05:21 PM, said:

It isn't self-selecting. It's a very stupid polling method. For example, on the debate last night, Fox hosted and McCain won 84% due to Fox news have conservative viewers. Same would happen on a MSNBC hosted debate for Obama. It's clearly a defective method, but that isn't the fault of Ron Paul supporters.


That's what self-selecting bias is - when the sample chooses to be sampled, as opposed to being randomly drawn. Presumably, that's the case in this, since the Ron Paul supporters chose to text in.

"You say that it is your custom to burn widows. Very well. We also have a custom: when men burn a woman alive, we tie a rope around their necks and we hang them. Build your funeral pyre; beside it, my carpenters will build a gallows. You may follow your custom. And then we will follow ours." -Sir Charles Napier

"The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted."   D.H. Lawrence

#29    MasterPo

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Posted 30 September 2008 - 01:41 AM

Ever read the book "How to Lie With Statistics"?


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Have the courage to read it.

#30    BlindMessiah

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Posted 30 September 2008 - 02:15 AM

MasterPo on Sep 30 2008, 01:41 AM, said:

Ever read the book "How to Lie With Statistics"?

Only 22% of Americans have.





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