Jump to content




Welcome to Unexplained Mysteries! Please sign in or create an account to start posting and to access a host of extra features.


- - - - -

"Obama/Bradley Effect";general election polls


  • Please log in to reply
2 replies to this topic

#1    rideron

rideron

    Apparition

  • Member
  • PipPip
  • 286 posts
  • Joined:29 Nov 2007
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:U.S.

Posted 04 October 2008 - 10:33 AM

THis is an article from back in Feb. re: the actual New Hampshire Democratic primary results vs. pre-primary poll numbers.  The "Bradley Effect" was apparently at play even among Dem primary voters.

What might be going on now among General Election voters and the poll numbers?  Early on, some commentators were saying Obama would need a least a 10-15 point poll lead to cancel out the "Bradley Effect" even in the Democratic primaries...

"Looks like Andrew Sullivan has brought up something we've been talking about here at the Agonist for a while: the prospensity of folks to lie to pollsters about voting for a black person, because they feel a bit ashamed of their racism, then going out and not voting for them.

It's called the Bradley effect and a lot of people thought it had faded. But New Hampshire suggests it may not have. One data point doesn't make a case, but the thing I always come back to is the infamous study where blacks with the exact same resumes as whites got one third less interview requests.(pdf)

America's a racist society and acknowledging that is just dealing with the world as it is, rather than the way we'd like it to be. I hope the Bradley effect isn't what happened in New Hampshire and I hope that America is ready for a black president. We'll see if there are significant gaps between polls and end-results elsewhere. If there are, the Bradley effect may still be alive and kicking--with Obama on the receiving end.

I'm not a fan of Obama's, but the Bradley effect would be a very sad and unfair way for him to lose the nomination.

Photo Credit: Alison Harger



Ian Welsh January 9, 2008 - 12:48am







#2    Sherapy

Sherapy

    Sheri loves Sean loves Sheri...

  • Member
  • 21,736 posts
  • Joined:14 Jun 2005
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:At the Beach-- San Pedro, California

  • "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar" (Freud )

Posted 04 October 2008 - 05:52 PM

rideron on Oct 4 2008, 03:33 AM, said:

THis is an article from back in Feb. re: the actual New Hampshire Democratic primary results vs. pre-primary poll numbers.  The "Bradley Effect" was apparently at play even among Dem primary voters.

What might be going on now among General Election voters and the poll numbers?  Early on, some commentators were saying Obama would need a least a 10-15 point poll lead to cancel out the "Bradley Effect" even in the Democratic primaries...

"Looks like Andrew Sullivan has brought up something we've been talking about here at the Agonist for a while: the prospensity of folks to lie to pollsters about voting for a black person, because they feel a bit ashamed of their racism, then going out and not voting for them.

It's called the Bradley effect and a lot of people thought it had faded. But New Hampshire suggests it may not have. One data point doesn't make a case, but the thing I always come back to is the infamous study where blacks with the exact same resumes as whites got one third less interview requests.(pdf)

America's a racist society and acknowledging that is just dealing with the world as it is, rather than the way we'd like it to be. I hope the Bradley effect isn't what happened in New Hampshire and I hope that America is ready for a black president. We'll see if there are significant gaps between polls and end-results elsewhere. If there are, the Bradley effect may still be alive and kicking--with Obama on the receiving end.

I'm not a fan of Obama's, but the Bradley effect would be a very sad and unfair way for him to lose the nomination.

Photo Credit: Alison Harger



Ian Welsh January 9, 2008 - 12:48am


I don't think color is an issue nor should be ....Obama is the best man   we have  right  now for the job...




#3    IrishAidan07

IrishAidan07

    Psychic Spy

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,681 posts
  • Joined:23 Aug 2008
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Michigan, United States

  • If you can't describe what you are doing as a process, you don't know what you're doing.

Posted 04 October 2008 - 05:56 PM

I thought there was a "Bradley Effect" thread already.



"There is not a Liberal America, a Conservative America, a Red America or Blue America, there is the United States of America." ~ Barack Obama

Posted Image

~~Irish~~




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users