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Scientists: MAJOR solar storms for 2012


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#16    sickpuppy

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Posted 21 October 2009 - 07:47 PM

Torgo, just wondering..

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A distortion of the Earth's magnetic field is a temporary event
how 'temporary'? 1000 years may be 'temporary' considering we're talking about the universe here..?

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- as the cloud of magnetically coupled plasma passes us, our magnetosphere resumes its original shape.
how long does that take?
what happens during this time?

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The orbit of the moon has quite literally NOTHING to do with the Earth's magnetic field - not only does it orbit entirely outside our magnetosphere, but it does not exert any net force on it at all even were it in the field.
/shrugs

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Nukes cannot go off from a solar storm. A solar storm would induce currents in long conductors, like power lines. This would cause power surges and the like, and the power line circuit breakers would trip and cut off power.
what happens if there's no power for these circuit breakers?
we DID have a chernobyl event, right? 3 mile island? (and they were mere 'earthborne' drama's)

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Nukes have innumerable steps that must be undergone for them to detonate, and basically cannot go off accidentally. Even were just one of the explosive charges in the core of a nuclear device to go off, without perfect timing of all the pieces and perfect working of all the components, you would get a fizzle that just acts as the nuke breaching its shell and spewing uranium around - and even that would not happen, the conductors are far too short to be damaged by even the most intense geomagnetic storm.
/shrugs

about the 'alignment' you say is meaningless, i'm told this is only an alignment as seen from our point of view (earth) but i'm wondering why it was even mentioned at all by a people who were said to possess no telescopes, no technology, etc etc

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#17    Torgo

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Posted 23 October 2009 - 03:27 PM

View Postunit, on 21 October 2009 - 07:47 PM, said:

how 'temporary'? 1000 years may be 'temporary' considering we're talking about the universe here..?

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how long does that take?
what happens during this time?
Geomagnetic storms caused by solar events happen over a timescale of hours to days at most.  A cloud of ionized, magnetized plasma comes towards us, envelops the earth, distorts the magnetic field, moves past us, and the field returns to its original shape.  The effects of this are that while the magnetosphere is changing shape, either distorting or returning to norrmal, the changing magnetic field induces the aforementioned currents in long conductors.  There is also a slight effect by which the upper upper atmosphere, over 100 km up, is heated ever so slightly by particles hitting it at the magnetic poles so it expands upwards and the drag experienced by satellites in low earth orbit increases by some fraction for a time (I think on the order of days to weeks).

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what happens if there's no power for these circuit breakers?
we DID have a chernobyl event, right? 3 mile island? (and they were mere 'earthborne' drama's)
Circuit breakers in power distribution networks use the current passing through them to power themselves, or have batteries that are charged off the grid.  If too much current passes through them the magnetic field produced by a coil pulls a switch open and forces something into the gap to break the circuit.  Chernobyl and 3 mile island had nothing to do with power grids.  3 Mile Island was a combination of a faulty valve and an inadequately trained reactor staff, and Chernobyl was the result of a profoundly unsafe incompetent reactor design in which a power failure would lead to the failure of coolant pumps and a runaway steam explosion within the reactor vessels.  

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about the 'alignment' you say is meaningless, i'm told this is only an alignment as seen from our point of view (earth) but i'm wondering why it was even mentioned at all by a people who were said to possess no telescopes, no technology, etc etc
It would have been important to them because, as you said, its an alignment AS SEEN FROM EARTH.  They had no other perspective, as we do now.  They found the dark patches in the milky way, including one large dark one directly on the line towards the center of the galaxy and near where the sun crosses the plane of the galaxy as seen from here, important in their mythology.  They may have set up their calendar to have the end of the 5000 year cycle coincide with the closest approach of the sun to the center of this dark cloud - and they got remarkably close, the closest approach of the sun to the center of that cloud (and to the center of the galaxy) as seen from Earth was in 1998.


#18    Universal Being

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Posted 23 October 2009 - 07:43 PM

View PostAgent. Mulder, on 09 October 2009 - 08:23 PM, said:

its nothing our earth cant stand though. we were hit by some big ones within the last 9 years, but ya didnt hear about them because not much happened. our ionosphere will protect us, or filter anything out.
According to Geryl, there will be a be a masive solar ejection of trillions of particles that will reverse the polarity of the earth .Now, I am not advocating his theory here but, the other scientists who are predicting a solar event of some kind ,have me pondering over  what Geryl has had to say

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#19    tinieblas

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Posted 23 October 2009 - 11:10 PM

I think it will happen; events will kick off in 2012; peak around 2015 and be over by 2020....no big catastrophic extinction event of end of all human life type thing; rather a chain of significant and unexpected (therefore unprepared for) events which will change a significant number of things within our society and our everyday lives.  It is, however, human to senstionalise and, especially in today's media-saturated world, to expect lots of big explosions and events cooler than any Hollywood special effect but that's not how it will be.  The human race will survive, sorry about that.  The world shan't end, whoops.  Things will be quite different, yes they will.

Before you all flame me, I'm sorry but I have no evidence of this, it's just what I, shall we say, suspect.  I cannot have evidence anyway because if events are unexpected, we can't by definitiion know what they're going to be...

However, solar activity is in the frame, i believe.

One small comment though, some of this stuff; large scale solar storm effects, magnetic field distortions and so forth ARE based on computer models and smaller scale tests, no?  Have we ever seen, with our own eyes on our own planet, such an event take place or are we trusting theory over actual concrete fact here?

One thing which intrigues me more though, is HOW did the Aztecs and Mayans get it so close without the technology and tools we currently possess?

Edited by tinieblas, 23 October 2009 - 11:14 PM.

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#20    Torgo

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Posted 24 October 2009 - 06:13 AM

The Myans would have been able to get the date at which the equinox falls closest to the sun crossing the plane of the galaxy as seen from earth easily enough - by looking at the positions of the stars during sunset at particular times of the year.  Its the same way we do it, we just can do it precisely much easier than they can and make accurate predictions much easier.  You can get down the rate of precession of the equinoxes by comparing measurements taken just a few decades apart, if you can measure a change in the positions of the stars by something like the size of the full moon in the sky.  These people were intelligent, they just didn't know what what they were looking at meant at all - they had no framework within which to look other than the geocentric.  And if they were indeed trying to set up their calendar so it cycled over at the sun's closest approach to the dark cloud by the center of the galaxy, they got it right to within 14 years out of something like 1000 - a 1% error.  Not bad.

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One small comment though, some of this stuff; large scale solar storm effects, magnetic field distortions and so forth ARE based on computer models and smaller scale tests, no? Have we ever seen, with our own eyes on our own planet, such an event take place or are we trusting theory over actual concrete fact here?

We see geomagnetic storms and increased solar activity ALL THE TIME.  The sun's magnetic field changes in an 11 year cycle, and each maximum it throws off lots of flares.  We haven't had a BIG storm since the 80s - that one knocked out power to parts of Canada for a few hours.  In the 1800s, there was a huge solar storm intense enough that some telegraph systems were damaged and those that were not damaged had enough current moving through them (from the magnetic fields inducing currents) that they could be used to send messages without being attached to generators/power sources.  These things happen all the time.


#21    gosgirl

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Posted 31 October 2009 - 06:07 AM

This reminds me how everybody thought that computers everywhere were going to crash back in 2000 for the turn of the millenium, Everybody said planes would collide into each other etc etc.



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