Here is the calculation I'm currently using to account for Earth's curvature... Distance in Miles (say 50 miles) squared (2,500') divided by 1.513 = 1,652.3'. That can then be converted to Angle in degrees (0.358528). Which would put your calcs. and my own much closer.
After looking at all of this in fairly great detail with the additional contributions between you and Peri, it looks to me like the appearance of the flares is likely in an arc as the Warthogs were angling back toward Tuscon ((edit)As noted by Peri back in post #2058 - to give credit where it is due! (/edit)). That would make lights 2 thru 9 follow that arcing turn radius away from the point of view of the K video, explaining why lights 2 thru 4 have a tight grouping (flying away turning from right to left) lights 5, 6, and 7 the most distant (the furthest in arc) and 8 and 9 are slightly closer as the angle turns somewhat (but not much) toward the POV.
This quick and rough picture kind of helps to visualize I think. The intention here is that the outside edge of the red ellipse is a guestimation of the possible flight path from a top down view.
The light on the right is light 2 from the K video and the one on the left is light 9 (order of appearance, with light 1 not shown in this picture, but would be off to the left and below).
Granted, this is a very rough image hastily thrown together, but it seems to match up somewhat with the light grouping. The lights seem to appear about every 8 seconds or so (estimated from the K video), and they aren't equidistant despite commentary from the witnesses in skyeagle's posted videos (primarily Lynne Kitei).
I think with this and the speed/climb information that you and Peri have put together we could fill in the remaining lights on Google Earth with a fair degree of estimated accuracy for visibility calculation purposes.
Edited by booNyzarC, 24 April 2011 - 11:00 PM.