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Iran...are we going to attack them


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#16    aquatus1

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 12:03 AM

View PostDamrod, on 08 January 2012 - 07:21 PM, said:

But I think they are desperate...the sanctions are killing them and now they are trying to do anything to break free of them...

Indeed.  Everyone keeps referring to what we are doing as an inducement to war.  It is not, no more than a franchise moving into a small town area is a war with the local store owners.  95% of the time, the tiny locals simply do not have the power or the resources to do anything about it, and instead of finding an alternative to survival, they refuse whatever offer has been made to them and tend to go down fighting, wasting the precious few resources they have.

Is it unfair?  Is it immoral?  Are both claims utterly subjective?  Of course.  It isn't about fairness or morality.  It is about behaviour.  The pack that controls the most territory ("controlling" not to be mistaken with "living in") isn't going to let some piddly little upstart dictate the rules of the forest.  They will either fall in line or they will be dealt with.

#17    acidhead

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 05:03 AM

View Postaquatus1, on 09 January 2012 - 12:03 AM, said:

Indeed.  Everyone keeps referring to what we are doing as an inducement to war.  It is not, no more than a franchise moving into a small town area is a war with the local store owners.  95% of the time, the tiny locals simply do not have the power or the resources to do anything about it, and instead of finding an alternative to survival, they refuse whatever offer has been made to them and tend to go down fighting, wasting the precious few resources they have.

Is it unfair?  Is it immoral?  Are both claims utterly subjective?  Of course.  It isn't about fairness or morality.  It is about behaviour.  The pack that controls the most territory ("controlling" not to be mistaken with "living in") isn't going to let some piddly little upstart dictate the rules of the forest.  They will either fall in line or they will be dealt with.


No, your analogy is flawed to say the least.

In your scenario, the franchise moves in and the tiny local shops cannot compete because they do not have the advantage of the larger overhead of the franchise.

In reality, to use your scenario actual context, the franchise moves in and immediately builds brick walls in front of the entrances to all the tiny local shops thus restricting any commerce from taking place there.

Sanctions are an act of trade warfare.

You would be singing a different tune if Iran held veto power at the U.N. and imposed sanctions on the USA.
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Posted 09 January 2012 - 11:24 AM

View Postacidhead, on 09 January 2012 - 05:03 AM, said:

No, your analogy is flawed to say the least.

In your scenario, the franchise moves in and the tiny local shops cannot compete because they do not have the advantage of the larger overhead of the franchise.

In reality, to use your scenario actual context, the franchise moves in and immediately builds brick walls in front of the entrances to all the tiny local shops thus restricting any commerce from taking place there.

Sanctions are an act of trade warfare.

You would be singing a different tune if Iran held veto power at the U.N. and imposed sanctions on the USA.
If I understand Aquatus1 the point is not whether the behavior is just or unjust but rather that it is the nature of those with power to influence, coerce even control those without as much power.  In short it's just human nature.  And to your point - YES Americans would be upset if they were being controlled by foreign powers but today that isn't the reality.  Tomorrow, who knows.  Sanctions are the least destructive means left to attempt to curb behavior that is NOT conducive to peaceful coexistence in the region.  Iran's rhetoric lead to this outcome.  If A'jad had not repeatedly denied the holocaust, demonized Israel and made reference to cleansing the region of this stain(paraphrasing) then the international community would never have imposed sanctions - it's just bad for business.  This process has been ongoing for years and still Iran insists on it's rights while hiding and sheltering it's means of enriching fuel.  If bombing their facilities will delay them testing a nuke for a couple of years then it's worth it IMO.  The aftermath will probably be a nightmare but NOT to act would be worse.
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#19    Rafterman

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 12:29 PM

View PostYamato, on 08 January 2012 - 06:01 AM, said:


What, what?  No longer using the giant credit card in the sky to fill up our Ford Excursions and Cadillac Escalades?   Now that's just "kooky".  :w00t:

.

The Ford Excursion hasn't been produced since 2005.  

But don't let facts stand in the way of rocking your meme.

#20    Yamato

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 12:53 PM

View PostRafterman, on 09 January 2012 - 12:29 PM, said:

The Ford Excursion hasn't been produced since 2005.  

But don't let facts stand in the way of rocking your meme.
Oh that's right, we live in a world where only cars 2006 and newer use gasoline.  How could such a fact have escaped me.
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Posted 09 January 2012 - 12:58 PM

I don't want to say this, but everything is tilting towards a war. Iran is soon to start their complex for Uranium enrichment we will see what happens then. In my country people are saying " Why does US have nuclear weps, and doesn't allow Iran to have, the same IF they are actualy going to build one ". But the news that they've tested medium range missile is abit distrubing. I don't want any wars, but that isn't our call...
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#22    Corp

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 02:19 PM

There's a lot a saber rattling but I'm hoping cooler heads prevail. The US doesn't want another war and I doubt Iran wants one either, unless they think Russia and China will step in and protect them. What will be interesting to see is how the other Middle Eastern countries react to Iran taking this action. Could be that they decide to deal with Iran themselves.
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#23    Yamato

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 04:46 PM

View Postand then, on 09 January 2012 - 11:24 AM, said:

If I understand Aquatus1 the point is not whether the behavior is just or unjust but rather that it is the nature of those with power to influence, coerce even control those without as much power.  In short it's just human nature.  And to your point - YES Americans would be upset if they were being controlled by foreign powers but today that isn't the reality.  Tomorrow, who knows.  Sanctions are the least destructive means left to attempt to curb behavior that is NOT conducive to peaceful coexistence in the region.  Iran's rhetoric lead to this outcome.  If A'jad had not repeatedly denied the holocaust, demonized Israel and made reference to cleansing the region of this stain(paraphrasing) then the international community would never have imposed sanctions - it's just bad for business.  This process has been ongoing for years and still Iran insists on it's rights while hiding and sheltering it's means of enriching fuel.  If bombing their facilities will delay them testing a nuke for a couple of years then it's worth it IMO.  The aftermath will probably be a nightmare but NOT to act would be worse.
It's remarkable how one can think that sharing a region with nuclear rogues and being surrounded by foreign military powers who also have nuclear weapons is only conducive to peaceful coexistence so long as one doesn't have the bomb!  I'd love to read that thesis:  How nuclear deterrence isn't nuclear deterrence.  With that kind of logic, we should give away all of our nukes to Brazil, Columbia and Cuba and be at peace, but with the foreign bungling Iran has been putting up with for the past 60 years they're little likely to give up anything.  Threats of war and acts of war aren't going to change that but to reinforce it.  

Everyone's an upstart before they're not.  While it's the people who always rule in the end, seeing that governments not grant special treatment to big business (too big to fail) and other countries by virtue of their nuclear status is the least we should do in the meantime.  We've shown the world that there's a way to tolerate and negotiate with nuclear powers and a way to bully and refuse to negotiate with non-nuclear powers.   It's probably too late to save face with Iran; they've caught that drift.  But the nuclear genie is out of the bottle and other powers will aspire to and eventually achieve nuclear bombs no matter how big our self-destructive temper tantrums get over it.  By destroying Iran's nuclear energy facilities we'd probably delay their acquisition of the bomb no matter what their intent, and preempting suppositional threats seems to be good enough for the war mongers to make their cases politically over the past 10 years.  I say probably because suppose they get angry we attacked them and buy a few nukes from Pakistan?  Shouldn't someone get some bandaids to cover for that supposition too?  Ushering in a, as you call it, "probable nightmare" that's worth no longer being scared of another pack of lies.

Let's explore one of the lies here, specifically the nonsense that Ahmadinejad repeatedly denies the Holocaust.

The Holocaust didn't happen...in the Middle East.  The media never finishes the sentence.  Ahmadinejad has provided explanations numerous times but the punditry is more interested in propagating lies for the masses to believe than informing the public and telling the truth.  If rhetoric is the reason for sanctions then there is no reason.  Ahmadinejad never repeatedly denied the Holocaust.  The media repeatedly claims that he did.

The Holocaust didn't happen...to Jews only.  Hitler exterminated between 10 and 11 million civilians of which about half were Jewish.  Why should we only remember half?  Nazis were abhorrent bigoted fascists but why should their bigotry against Jews monopolize our understanding of the Holocaust?  Is it because dead Jews are the scapegoats who attend to a certain nationalistic movement that we must be goaded into supporting?  Or is the better reason to remember the horrors of the Holocaust to assure that we don't tolerate cases where a state violently imposes power over innocent peoples' lives that it considers less worthy than other groups it prefers?  When Gypsies get evicted from their homes in the 21st century, when Gays aren't allowed to marry, why don't we evoke the Holocaust to voice our opposition over that?  Mind you, I'm not pushing for any homeland here, I'm merely asking for equal treatment under the law.  What in the blazes would happen if Jews couldn't get married somewhere?  

We don't have to agree with Ahmadinejad's statements or even appreciate that he likes to ask about the details such as where the Holocaust happened or who the Holocaust happened to.  It's so much easier to spread BS that he denies it than to listen to his questions, much less ask our own.  And what of Holocaust memorials that aren't held in Iran?  Is it alright to ask politically incorrect questions at those?  Are they "denying it" just for talking about it too?
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#24    Damrod

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 05:35 PM

Ahmadinejad is just the political face and voice of the Ayatollah.  In most practical terms, he cannot do much of anything without the spiritual leaders blessings and approval.  On one hand, if you put aside our cultural, spiritual and religious differences...the President of Iran has a really crappy job.  He doesn't have any real power and he is left to try and turn iconic religious beliefs into a political position on the world stage...probably a frustrating place to be...

Not trying to sympathize with the guy but at some level, if you step back and look at this thing through non-religion based glasses...it is a lose-lose proposition for them and the rest of the world trying to negotiate with them.  How can you (us) as a country with a separation of church and state deal with someone where church IS the state...not easily.

His comments over the Holocaust and wanting to wipe the Jews off the earth is just psycho-babble and I am yet to understand this part of the Middle Eastern problems...I just have never understood it and probably never will...Jews, Christians and Muslims all acknowledge the God of Abraham as "THE" creator...yet they bicker and fight over how to worship, pay homage and who will be the "messiah"...the Jews reject Jesus as the messiah and are...to them...waiting on the first coming...The Muslims believe Jesus was a great prophet and will fight alongside their "savior" in the end battle...I have never understood this need to kill in the name of One god...and it is the same God...why do they fight so much?  No wait...don't even try to explain it...it makes my head hurt if I try to expend thought on it...I choose to not go there...

And about the sanctions...well...whether it is an act of war or not depends on which side of the blockade you ar sitting on...I am sure if I was locked in and my child needed medicine I could not get because of political sanctions...I'd consider that an act of war...regardless of the details...

#25    Corp

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 06:47 PM

It's my theory that the closer two religions are the more their followers want to kill each other. I mean the old Catholic Church didn't care about Hindus. Jews? Try to convert them or kick them out of the country. Muslims? Wars and a bit of slavery. Protestants? BURN THEM!!!


I wouldn't call the sanctions a blockade since Iran has no trouble trading with Russia or China.

Edited by Corp, 09 January 2012 - 06:49 PM.

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth a war, is much worse...A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares more about than he does about his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.

#26    Damrod

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 06:56 PM

View PostCorp, on 09 January 2012 - 06:47 PM, said:

It's my theory that the closer two religions are the more their followers want to kill each other. I mean the old Catholic Church didn't care about Hindus. Jews? Try to convert them or kick them out of the country. Muslims? Wars and a bit of slavery. Protestants? BURN THEM!!!


I wouldn't call the sanctions a blockade since Iran has no trouble trading with Russia or China.

Yes and no and I suppose I need to look this up...I thought Russia and China had agreed to the sanctions and were only trading at a humanitarian level for food and the raw necessities of life?...I mean if it were open trade...hell China and Russia are huge markets...our sanctions would be pointless...no...they are suffering and they are angry...thus the "power display"...."We have missiles!!"...meh....a patriot will take care of those things....but they felt a HUGE need to show they are still trying....so...I think that comes from desperation...if they were trading fully....they would not be in such bad positions...

Edited by Damrod, 09 January 2012 - 06:57 PM.


#27    and then

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 07:33 PM

View PostDamrod, on 09 January 2012 - 06:56 PM, said:

Yes and no and I suppose I need to look this up...I thought Russia and China had agreed to the sanctions and were only trading at a humanitarian level for food and the raw necessities of life?...I mean if it were open trade...hell China and Russia are huge markets...our sanctions would be pointless...no...they are suffering and they are angry...thus the "power display"...."We have missiles!!"...meh....a patriot will take care of those things....but they felt a HUGE need to show they are still trying....so...I think that comes from desperation...if they were trading fully....they would not be in such bad positions...
The latest sanctions are aimed at Iran's oil sales.  Between 60 and 80 percent of their total revenues.  They are getting a bit desperate I think.  The sanctions won't be in effect for a month or so but the bluster that's coming from Tehran says this set will HURT.  Russia and China still do a lot of business with Iran but they also are willing to use this situation to leverage really good prices for the oil that's no longer going to be sold to Europe.  Real friends huh?
Also - Iran is crowing today about the beginning of enrichment to 20% of uranium in the Fordo site.  A friendly little enrichment operation under about 300 ft of mountain rock.  That facility may prove to be counterproductive for the mullahs and A'jad  aka "monkey boy" - so dubbed by a political rival in Tehran a few years back.
Counter productive in that the only weapon that will guarantee collapse and destruction of such a site is a low yield nuke on a deep penetrating bunker buster bomb.  And the day after?  The world will howl and beat their chest in rage and do exactly nothing of consequence.  Iran will probably activate their proxies (stooges) in the Gaza and Lebanon and Israel will show what their forces are capable of when they aren't hamstrung by DC.  A big old bloody mess all because the Iranians miscalculated the resolve of Israel to just survive. :tu:
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#28    THE MATRIX

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 08:43 PM

View PostDamrod, on 07 January 2012 - 08:24 PM, said:

I don't know what to think...we have the Iranian military in motion but then we do a humanitarian thing and save some of their fishermen...

I am afraid that we are trying to pick a fight....and I think that the Iranians know they don't have a snowballs chance in h*ll of beating us...but I also understand the idea of entering hostilities is connected to the Military Industrial machine that drives our economy....and I have issues with that...

I personally prefer the Ron Paul Idea of "just worry about us" and bring our troops home...if this middle eastern country attacks that one....so be it...it is not our fight...we can make it without them...but...I know the Christian Fundamentalist think this is all staging for the "end of days" and it causes us to be involved in crap we really should leave alone...it is not Armegeddon people...it is just posturing and pride...

Just my opinion though...

When the next Republican President gets voted into the White House. That President will claim WMDs and drag us into another 10 year war and at the same time will try to pick a fight with N. Korea and end up dragging the US into a second war with N. Korea.

#29    Corp

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 09:12 PM

View PostDamrod, on 09 January 2012 - 06:56 PM, said:

Yes and no and I suppose I need to look this up...I thought Russia and China had agreed to the sanctions and were only trading at a humanitarian level for food and the raw necessities of life?...I mean if it were open trade...hell China and Russia are huge markets...our sanctions would be pointless...no...they are suffering and they are angry...thus the "power display"...."We have missiles!!"...meh....a patriot will take care of those things....but they felt a HUGE need to show they are still trying....so...I think that comes from desperation...if they were trading fully....they would not be in such bad positions...

Russia and China have been blocking a lot of the harsher sanctions that the US has been trying to get slaped on Iran. I believe the current round of sanctions is mainly coming from Europe. While Russia and China will of course take advantage of the situation and the sanctions will hurt a lot Iran is still going to be able to find markets to sell their oil. Just poking around it seems even with all the sanctions the US has slapped on them Iranian oil profits have been increasing over the last year or so.

http://www.nytimes.c...?ref=middleeast
War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth a war, is much worse...A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares more about than he does about his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.

#30    and then

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 11:44 PM

View PostCorp, on 09 January 2012 - 09:12 PM, said:

Russia and China have been blocking a lot of the harsher sanctions that the US has been trying to get slaped on Iran. I believe the current round of sanctions is mainly coming from Europe. While Russia and China will of course take advantage of the situation and the sanctions will hurt a lot Iran is still going to be able to find markets to sell their oil. Just poking around it seems even with all the sanctions the US has slapped on them Iranian oil profits have been increasing over the last year or so.

http://www.nytimes.c...?ref=middleeast
Yeaah...essentially all they have to do is make threats and the prices go up.  Handy skill to have and a great way to make money.
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