59 replies to this topic

[Still Waters]

www.dailymail.co.uk said:

Cambridge university scientists say that a new Ice Age is due to start within 1,500 years.

But due to human carbon emissions, the lethal 'big freeze' could be put off.

Levels of CO2 in the atmosphere could actually insulate against a catastrophic ice age which would see glaciers advance over Europe and north America.

The scientists admit that we would be 'better off' in a warmer world - but caution that this is 'missing the point'.

In a paper published in Nature Geoscience, Cambridge University paleoclimatologist Luke Skinner says that even if carbon emissions stopped today, levels would remain elevated for at least 1,000 years, and stored heat could prevent the next Ice Age from happening.

Instead, things would cool down, but not quite so severely.

Read more...

[FLOMBIE]

I thought we are currently in an ice age?

EDIT: Yes, we are: Quaternary Glaciation

I assume they have mixed up the terms 'ice age' and 'glacial period'.

Edited by FLOMBIE, 09 January 2012 - 04:22 PM.

[Leonardo]

These are very speculative claims by the Cambridge scientists. Based on records of previous inter-glacials retreived from ancient ice cores going back furhter than half a million years, it appears that the warmer the inter-glacial, the shorter it's duration - possibly due to hyper-regulation as negative feedback systems over compensated.

Therefore it is entirely possible that by increasing global temperatures, the actions of humans are precipitating a new glacial period earlier than it would otherwise be expected.

That is also speculation of course, the truth is no-one knows. I do wonder why scientists make such claims, however, unless it is simply for the 'prestige' of seeing their words in the media?

[BFB]

Leonardo, on 09 January 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

These are very speculative claims by the Cambridge scientists. Based on records of previous inter-glacials retreived from ancient ice cores going back furhter than half a million years, it appears that the warmer the inter-glacial, the shorter it's duration - possibly due to hyper-regulation as negative feedback systems over compensated.

Therefore it is entirely possible that by increasing global temperatures, the actions of humans are precipitating a new glacial period earlier than it would otherwise be expected.

That is also speculation of course, the truth is no-one knows. I do wonder why scientists make such claims, however, unless it is simply for the 'prestige' of seeing their words in the media?

So basically you believe insolation has a bigger impact than CO2?

Hmm interresting but i dont agree.  

I do wonder why none of the hardcore AGW enthusiasts haven't replied to your post?

[Leonardo]

BFB, on 10 January 2012 - 11:55 AM, said:

So basically you believe insolation has a bigger impact than CO2?

Hmm interresting but i dont agree.

I don't believe that is what I said. There are many systems that affect climate and an unbalancing in one may lead to hyper-regulation in others that normally provide a balancing effect.

Quote

I do wonder why none of the hardcore AGW enthusiasts haven't replied to your post?

Perhaps because I am not declaring that AGW as a component of climate change doesn't exist?

[angi chiesa]

lets wait and see

[BFB]

Leonardo, on 10 January 2012 - 01:19 PM, said:

I don't believe that is what I said. There are many systems that affect climate and an unbalancing in one may lead to hyper-regulation in others that normally provide a balancing effect.

But isn't your post irrevelavant then? Because past glacial inceptions have been driven by orbital insolation.

Edited by BFB, 10 January 2012 - 02:00 PM.

[Leonardo]

BFB, on 10 January 2012 - 02:00 PM, said:

But isn't your post irrevelavant then? Because past glacial inceptions have been driven by orbital insolation.

Have they? Isn't that an assumption?

Even if it was true, it wouldn't follow that my comments are a declaration that insolation is a greater factor in the current episode of warming.

Edited by Leonardo, 10 January 2012 - 03:27 PM.

[BFB]

Leonardo, on 10 January 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Have they? Isn't that an assumption?

Sadly no.

Leonardo, on 10 January 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Even if it was true, it wouldn't follow that my comments are a declaration that insolation is a greater factor in the current episode of warming.

If you believe Luke Skinner makes some very speculative claims judged by his new paper, i would say yes.

Bottom line of his paper is that CO2 is a bigger factor than insolation.

[Leonardo]

BFB, on 10 January 2012 - 03:50 PM, said:

Sadly no.

So, you believe Earth did not have a biosphere during the past inter-glacials?

[Br Cornelius]

A cursory glance at the paloclimatic record will show that temps/co2 tends to spike before ice ages start. The mechanism for this is not understood, so Leonardos statement is not contrary to current understanding. Tipping points and hyperregulation seems the most likely explanation - with fundemantal changes in the deep ocean conveyor been the most likely mechanism.

This is why I tend to be skeptical of climate predictions beyond about a 50yr window - since beyond certain critical threshholds all bets are off.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 10 January 2012 - 03:58 PM.

[FlyingAngel]

Whether it is true or not, CO2 is not good for health. We'd die of pollution sooner than expected. Not even counting there's lot of people who die from heat.

[sagittae]

The sun's surface ( photosphere ) and corona have been increasing their output of light ( including infra red radiation ) since 1973 ( ever since the U. S. lost the Vietnam War). Any build-up of CO2 by Man has no effect on the global temperature of Planet Earth. Our immense oceans quickly absorb the extra CO2 even though much of the land has been deforested. As CO2 and water react, the oceans become more acidic and Man is killing off all the fish,instead. The sun has been dragging the solar system into a nearby "bubble" of plasma which is causing the sun to get brighter(and hotter ). People born before  1973 must have noticed that their not living under the same sun as in the 1950s( my growing up years ). Today, I stand at a bus stop with sunglasses on feeling the cursed sun burning my shoulders and back  (even in the Winter Time in the Philadelphia Area). People born after 1973 accept this bright, hot thing in the sky as normal and don't know what I'm talking about. Notice how hot metal objects in your car are to the touch? This was not so, back in the 50's. Roads in Texas were bubbling during their unprecedented drought,last Summer. The "Global Warming due to Man's Activity" is a lie from you - know -who for Big Business and "Carbon Credits". Most Astronomers are afraid to say the truth because some have been defrocked and tarred and feathered and run out of the U. S. Academy of Sciences "Club" and are now homeless and living in the city shelter.

[Br Cornelius]

sagittae, on 10 January 2012 - 03:59 PM, said:

The sun's surface ( photosphere ) and corona have been increasing their output of light ( including infra red radiation ) since 1973 ( ever since the U. S. lost the Vietnam War). Any build-up of CO2 by Man has no effect on the global temperature of Planet Earth. Our immense oceans quickly absorb the extra CO2 even though much of the land has been deforested. As CO2 and water react, the oceans become more acidic and Man is killing off all the fish,instead. The sun has been dragging the solar system into a nearby "bubble" of plasma which is causing the sun to get brighter(and hotter ). People born before  1973 must have noticed that their not living under the same sun as in the 1950s( my growing up years ). Today, I stand at a bus stop with sunglasses on feeling the cursed sun burning my shoulders and back  (even in the Winter Time in the Philadelphia Area). People born after 1973 accept this bright, hot thing in the sky as normal and don't know what I'm talking about. Notice how hot metal objects in your car are to the touch? This was not so, back in the 50's. Roads in Texas were bubbling during their unprecedented drought,last Summer. The "Global Warming due to Man's Activity" is a lie from you - know -who for Big Business and "Carbon Credits". Most Astronomers are afraid to say the truth because some have been defrocked and tarred and feathered and run out of the U. S. Academy of Sciences "Club" and are now homeless and living in the city shelter.

Bla Bla - fly by skeptic delivers same industry disinformation we've heard a million times. Bored

Br Cornelius

[BFB]

Leonardo, on 10 January 2012 - 03:54 PM, said:

So, you believe Earth did not have a biosphere during the past inter-glacials?

Where did that come from?

Br Cornelius, on 10 January 2012 - 03:55 PM, said:

A cursory glance at the paloclimatic record will show that temps/co2 tends to spike before ice ages start. The mechanism for this is not understood, so Leonardos statement is not contrary to current understanding.

Br Cornelius

Br maybe to your current understanding. I'll agree that the mechanism is not 100% understood but we have evidence for why CO2 spikes just before. At least for the last two.

Edited by BFB, 10 January 2012 - 04:07 PM.