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No warming for 15 years


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#1    Little Fish

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 05:24 PM

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1kxQ85zqC


#2    PeacefulAnarchy

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 06:23 PM

Excuse me while I get a hammer and start smashing my own teeth in...

Has anybody got a clue about the Earth's climate...

Anybody?

Anybody?

:wacko:

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Tokyo, February 18, 2002 :huh:

#3    Damrod

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 06:35 PM

Interesting article...be nice if it had more sources of this "opinion".  

I have avoided using the term "Global Warming" all through these debates and discussions on the topic..."Global Warming" has certain views and connotations attached to it that are not exactly easy for some people to swallow...the correct terminology is "Climate Change".  You don't have to be a climatologist to observe shifting weather patterns.  I have lived all over the east coast but basically in and around the mid-Atlantic region...and the weather is different now than it was 40 years ago, it just is.  Is it completely man-made?...No, probably not.  But I'm also pretty sure we haven't helped much either.

Weather patterns have shifted ever since this planet started, it is a natural cycle and yes I do believe a lot of it is tied to solar cycles and activity.  Does mankind have an influence on it?  I'm going to say, yes...we may indeed be accelerating or enhancing it.  If it isn't completely man-made, does that mean we don't try to live cleaner and preserve nature and resources for posterity?  No...there is nothing wrong with being a little more conscientious about the world we leave to our children and grandchildren.  Water is a precious commodity and we need to be more responsible about how we take care of our freshwater sources...ground water contamination is no-ones friend.

I do think there are scare tactics involved...It has been a driving force to enact more controls and pen down certain legislation to control a property owners rights, even to the point of seizing lands deemed "environmentally fragile".  It has also been a rallying point for taxes, cap and trade...

But I also believe completely denouncing it is folly.  If we could get beyond the special interest groups that fund and steer the outcomes of these studies, we might actually get a straight answer...but I won't be holding my breath.


#4    Little Fish

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 07:54 PM

more here:
http://wattsupwithth...ential-cooling/


#5    Doug1o29

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 08:20 PM

View PostLittle Fish, on 30 January 2012 - 05:24 PM, said:

You might want to check the arithmetic.  I just did:

Temperatures since 1996:
1996  43
1997  47
1998  77
1999  51
2000  50
2001  60
2002  71
2003  70
2004  63
2005  80
2006  70
2007  78
2008  57
2009  72
2010  86
2011  72

Temperatures are in hundredths of a degree centigrade above the 1951-1980 global mean temperature.

Since 1996, temperatures have risen at an average rate of 0.01775 degrees centigrade per year, based on a simple straight-line model.  43% of the variation is "explained" by the model.  The standard error is 0.01040 degrees centigrade.  The probability of accepting a false conclusion is one part in 175.

The "global-warming-is-over" claim is a myth.

Data source:  http://data.giss.nas...data/GLB.Ts.txt

If we're going to keep having these discussions, we might first want to talk about why short-range trends don't really show what is going on.  If this were a 30-year time line instead of fifteen, it would be harder to fit.
Doug

P.S.:  I decided to check the 30-year trend while I was at it.  Since 1980, the temperature increase has averaged 0.02714 degrees centigrade per year.  A straight-line model accounted for 72.8% of the variation.  Probability of accepting a false conclusion was less than one part in 10,000.

I also tried a parabola and a cubic.  Neither fit.  At 95% confidence, warming didn't even slow down during the mid-2000s.
Doug

Edited by Doug1o29, 30 January 2012 - 08:46 PM.

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#6    Doug1o29

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 08:44 PM

View PostDamrod, on 30 January 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:

I have avoided using the term "Global Warming" all through these debates and discussions on the topic..."Global Warming" has certain views and connotations attached to it that are not exactly easy for some people to swallow...the correct terminology is "Climate Change".  You don't have to be a climatologist to observe shifting weather patterns.  I have lived all over the east coast but basically in and around the mid-Atlantic region...and the weather is different now than it was 40 years ago, it just is.  Is it completely man-made?...No, probably not.  But I'm also pretty sure we haven't helped much either.
"Climate chnnge" has tended to replace "global warming" in the lexicon because it is more inclusive.  It doesn't sound quite right to apply "global warming" to changes in precipitation.

Quote

Weather patterns have shifted ever since this planet started, it is a natural cycle and yes I do believe a lot of it is tied to solar cycles and activity.  Does mankind have an influence on it?  I'm going to say, yes...we may indeed be accelerating or enhancing it.  If it isn't completely man-made, does that mean we don't try to live cleaner and preserve nature and resources for posterity?  No...there is nothing wrong with being a little more conscientious about the world we leave to our children and grandchildren.  Water is a precious commodity and we need to be more responsible about how we take care of our freshwater sources...ground water contamination is no-ones friend.

I do think there are scare tactics involved...It has been a driving force to enact more controls and pen down certain legislation to control a property owners rights, even to the point of seizing lands deemed "environmentally fragile".  It has also been a rallying point for taxes, cap and trade...

But I also believe completely denouncing it is folly.  If we could get beyond the special interest groups that fund and steer the outcomes of these studies, we might actually get a straight answer...but I won't be holding my breath.
Well stated.
Doug

Edited by Doug1o29, 30 January 2012 - 08:44 PM.

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#7    Little Fish

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 10:09 PM

the article refers to the met office, but you are using a different dataset, one that uses US land temperature readings in urban areas where the type of paint used on the recording equpiment can give false high readings much higher than the numbers you've shown.

what does the satellite data say?


#8    Little Fish

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 10:49 PM

co2 has gone up quite a bit over the last 15 years, where was the temperature increase?

co2 went up according to manua loa about by the same amount over the preceeding 15 year period.


#9    Doug1o29

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:21 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 30 January 2012 - 10:09 PM, said:

the article refers to the met office, but you are using a different dataset, one that uses US land temperature readings in urban areas where the type of paint used on the recording equpiment can give false high readings much higher than the numbers you've shown.

what does the satellite data say?
Unless I missed something in the article you cited, it doesn't provide a source for either the study it is commenting on or a reference for the dataset the study used.  The met publishes data from over 5000 stations.  So which dataset are you talking about?
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#10    Doug1o29

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:37 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 30 January 2012 - 10:49 PM, said:

co2 has gone up quite a bit over the last 15 years, where was the temperature increase?

co2 went up according to manua loa about by the same amount over the preceeding 15 year period.
2010 was the hottest year on record, with 2005 right behind.  A one-year drop in average temps is not exactly a trend.

2008, 2009 and 2010 were the wettest years on record in central Noth America.  It is tempting to blame that on climate change, but I don't really think there's enough data to warrant that conclusion - yet.  Strange weather continued worldwide through 2011 and even though rainfall is higher and it is winter, we are setting new record highs almost daily.

Solar output may (or may not) be dropping.  If it is dropping, but temperatures don't fall by a similar proportion, you have evidence for global warming, even in the face of declining temperatures.

The pattern of a severe late-winter freeze, followed by severe summer drought, is a common one in Oklahoma/Arkansas.  It happened nine times in the twentieth century and most-recently in 2011.  I think I see evidence for it in tree rings from Henryetta, OK in 1785 and 1795.  It's nothing new.  But in 2011, with only one exception, temps went above 100 degrees F. for six consecutive weeks.  And that IS new.

If I remember correctly, the last solar maximum was in 2009.  So if temps are correlated with solar output, shouldn't 2010 be colder than 2009?
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#11    ExpandMyMind

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:37 AM

View PostDoug1o29, on 31 January 2012 - 02:21 AM, said:

Unless I missed something in the article you cited, it doesn't provide a source for either the study it is commenting on or a reference for the dataset the study used.  The met publishes data from over 5000 stations.  So which dataset are you talking about?
Doug

Quote

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997
http://times247.com/...-new-data-shows

Maybe someone should visit the respective websites to read the data?


#12    DKO

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 01:14 PM

Where I live we had our hottest summer on record last year, so far this summer has been the mildest in a long time. Weather is all over the place.

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#13    Jaygatz

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:34 PM

The planet has been here four and a half billion years. We've been here, what? A hundred thousand? Maybe two hundred thousand? And we've only been engaged in heavy industry for a little over two hundred years. Two hundred years versus four and a half billion. And we have the CONCEIT to think that somehow we're a threat? That somehow we're gonna put in jeopardy this beautiful little blue-green ball that's just a-floatin' around the sun?

The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through all kinds of things worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles; hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids and meteors; worlwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages... And we think some plastic bags, and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The planet... the planet... the planet isn't going anywhere. WE ARE!
[George Carlin]

Edited by Jaygatz, 31 January 2012 - 02:35 PM.


#14    Eldorado

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:48 PM

View PostPeacefulAnarchy, on 30 January 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

Excuse me while I get a hammer and start smashing my own teeth in...

Has anybody got a clue about the Earth's climate...

Anybody?

Anybody?

:wacko:

:tu:


#15    Verneph

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:27 PM

View PostDamrod, on 30 January 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:

Interesting article...be nice if it had more sources of this "opinion".  

I have avoided using the term "Global Warming" all through these debates and discussions on the topic..."Global Warming" has certain views and connotations attached to it that are not exactly easy for some people to swallow...the correct terminology is "Climate Change".  You don't have to be a climatologist to observe shifting weather patterns.  I have lived all over the east coast but basically in and around the mid-Atlantic region...and the weather is different now than it was 40 years ago, it just is.  Is it completely man-made?...No, probably not.  But I'm also pretty sure we haven't helped much either.

Weather patterns have shifted ever since this planet started, it is a natural cycle and yes I do believe a lot of it is tied to solar cycles and activity.  Does mankind have an influence on it?  I'm going to say, yes...we may indeed be accelerating or enhancing it.  If it isn't completely man-made, does that mean we don't try to live cleaner and preserve nature and resources for posterity?  No...there is nothing wrong with being a little more conscientious about the world we leave to our children and grandchildren.  Water is a precious commodity and we need to be more responsible about how we take care of our freshwater sources...ground water contamination is no-ones friend.

I do think there are scare tactics involved...It has been a driving force to enact more controls and pen down certain legislation to control a property owners rights, even to the point of seizing lands deemed "environmentally fragile".  It has also been a rallying point for taxes, cap and trade...

But I also believe completely denouncing it is folly.  If we could get beyond the special interest groups that fund and steer the outcomes of these studies, we might actually get a straight answer...but I won't be holding my breath.

I was going to comment, but then I read this and realized I did not have to. Excellent post.  :tu:





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