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Climate change tree test begins


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#1    Waspie_Dwarf

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Posted 29 March 2012 - 12:57 PM

www.bbc.co.uk said:

European forestry scientists have begun a multi-national field trial to identify trees that will thrive as predicted climate change develops.

Thousands of trees are being planted in test plots from Portugal in the south to Scotland in the north.

The trees will be measured and monitored as they grow in the diverse environments.

The results are likely to have a marked impact on which species of trees are planted in the coming decades.

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#2    Pareto

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 06:32 PM

Does who will not survive will be cut down and sent to the lumber mill immediately and more couches will be made.


#3    Sundew

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 08:44 PM

What tree species will survive? Probably the same species that lived through the last inter-glacial period. If it gets warmer trees will move to higher latitudes or higher altitudes, if it gets colder, the reverse will occur. We think of trees as slow growing because we have a relatively short life span by comparison, however in geologic time they can quickly colonize favorable habitats.

The climate is always changing and plants survive the changes; it's called adaptation. The "global warming" seems to have ceased over the last several years. It is not universally accepted that it will continue or that it is not a natural event as opposed to an anthropomorphic one, or even merely a pretense to ask for a global tax of some some sort to combat it (think "carbon credits"). If the fossil records are any indication, there were temperate forests in parts of Antarctica at one time and the Amazon basin was much warmer than it is today. Humans were not belching industrial gases into the atmosphere at that time, the climate warmed just the same. Maybe from internal planetary heating, maybe from solar changes, who knows? Not too long ago in geologic time, over half of N. America was under an ice sheet, this is what carved out the Great Lakes. During that time winter lasted nearly all year at higher latitudes. I would rather live through a period of warming than one of cooling (which some scientists have suggested may be next). In times of extreme cooling the ice sheets expand, reflecting more sunlight and thus perpetuating more cooling. Populations are displaced, northern forests can be killed off or pushed southward, tropical and sub-tropical plants are driven back towards the equator, food becomes scarce, people die. Supposedly we are currently in an inter-glacial period, the climate in general has been warming for 10,000+ years, prior to our technology, prior to the Industrial Revolution, prior to the internal combustion engine. It may continue to warm, we may have little or nothing to do with it. Warming is, in general, at least more conducive to human life and civilization as we enjoy it today.

And besides, palm trees might look good in New Jersey.  :tu:


#4    Doug1o29

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 05:37 PM

View PostSundew, on 30 March 2012 - 08:44 PM, said:

What tree species will survive? Probably the same species that lived through the last inter-glacial period. If it gets warmer trees will move to higher latitudes or higher altitudes, if it gets colder, the reverse will occur. We think of trees as slow growing because we have a relatively short life span by comparison, however in geologic time they can quickly colonize favorable habitats.
This is, essentially, a provenance test.  These have been going on since forever.  Usually it's just to find out what varieties from other areas can survive and do well in this area and vice versa.  These are long-term tests.  Usually the plantings are left in place for at least a century.  Most that have ever been started and not been destroyed by fires or lost road crews are still out there.  All that has changed is that they've given them another name:  global warming studies.

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The climate is always changing and plants survive the changes; it's called adaptation.
This time, warming is occurring much faster - fast enough that plants and animals aren't moving poleward fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures.  Once the necessary habitat conditions outrun the species, that's extinction.  Oaks go under first - cottonwoods last.  At the very least, we're going to see radically altered plant and animal communities, if not ecosystem collapse.  Business-as-usual means disaster has already been entrained.

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The "global warming" seems to have ceased over the last several years.  It is not universally accepted that it will continue or that it is not a natural event as opposed to an anthropomorphic one, or even merely a pretense to ask for a global tax of some some sort to combat it (think "carbon credits").
Read "Storms of My Grandchildren" by James Hansen, available through Amazon.com.  All these issues are addressed.

The datasets I have, show warming has slowed, but not ceased.  That's believed to be due mainly to sulfur pollution by Chinese power plants.  This will decrease as China cleans up its plants.

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If the fossil records are any indication, there were temperate forests in parts of Antarctica at one time and the Amazon basin was much warmer than it is today. Humans were not belching industrial gases into the atmosphere at that time, the climate warmed just the same. Maybe from internal planetary heating, maybe from solar changes, who knows?
In times past, the sun produced less energy than it does today.  1500 ppm of CO2 nicely offset that.  If you want to know what 400 ppm of extra CO2 will do, look at the last time CO2 reached that level.  How high were sea levels?  How hot was it?  The past is your best key to the future.  Climate models are instructive, but they can't tell us everything.

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Not too long ago in geologic time, over half of N. America was under an ice sheet, this is what carved out the Great Lakes. During that time winter lasted nearly all year at higher latitudes.
Check out Milankovich Cycles.  The solar forcings change slowly on cycles of 20,000, 40,000 and 100,000 years.  We are still about 8100 years from the next minimum in the 20,000-year cycle and we are about 10,000 years out-of-phase with the 40,000-year cycle.  At any rate, orbital changes are pretty puny compared with what we're putting out in terms of pollution.

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I would rather live through a period of warming than one of cooling (which some scientists have suggested may be next).
There will never be another ice age as long as humans are around.  We know how to warm the planet.  That's easy to do - one CFC plant could put out enough to offset orbital mechanics.  And the amount of CO2 now in the atmosphere will guarantee we won't need that plant for at least three or four centruies.

Those scientists who have suggested that we may be in for an ice age are geologists who look at the past, not at atmospheric chemistry and physics.  And much of what is appearing in the popular press is bunk without any scientific backing, even bad science.

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In times of extreme cooling the ice sheets expand, reflecting more sunlight and thus perpetuating more cooling. Populations are displaced, northern forests can be killed off or pushed southward, tropical and sub-tropical plants are driven back towards the equator, food becomes scarce, people die. Supposedly we are currently in an inter-glacial period, the climate in general has been warming for 10,000+ years, prior to our technology, prior to the Industrial Revolution, prior to the internal combustion engine. It may continue to warm, we may have little or nothing to do with it. Warming is, in general, at least more conducive to human life and civilization as we enjoy it today.

And besides, palm trees might look good in New Jersey.  :tu:
The worst-case scenario for global warming is that we will trigger a massive release of methane from the ocean deeps.  That has been blamed for five of the six major extinctions that have marked earth's paleontology, as well as for several smaller ones.  Life was seriously disrupted - millions of species went extinct - but survived, mostly because there wasn't enough methane plus CO2 to completely disrupt the system.  But now we are burning fossil fuels at a high rate.  There is now about 120 ppm more CO2 in the air than would be there naturally (and we are adding about 1.7ppm annually), as well as more methane, CFCs and black carbon.  Another thirty years of business-as-usual will put enough more of these into the air that a methane release could push the greenhouse effect past the point of no return.

How hot could it get?  The Venus Syndrome.  Think of oceans boiling.  There's enough carbon locked away in coal, oil, gas, tar sand and oil shale to accomplish that.  And we're busy digging it up so we can do it.

At the moment, this scenario is impossible, but it won't remain that way for longer than a few more decades.

And it doesn't have to be so.  There are cheap, affordable solutions.  Some that cost less than what we're doing right now.  It's a disaster we can chose not to experience.
Doug

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#5    Alienated Being

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Posted 31 March 2012 - 08:33 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 31 March 2012 - 05:37 PM, said:



This time, warming is occurring much faster - fast enough that plants and animals aren't moving poleward fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures.  Once the necessary habitat conditions outrun the species, that's extinction.  Oaks go under first - cottonwoods last.  At the very least, we're going to see radically altered plant and animal communities, if not ecosystem collapse.  Business-as-usual means disaster has already been entrained.
Warming is occurring much "faster" simply because we do not possess the technological means of measuring temperature variations millions of years in the past - it is occurring much faster than what we have expected it to, but so far, out of all of the papers I have read, and all of the IPCC reports I have consulted, I have found no evidence whatsoever to indicate that we are, beyond a reasonable doubt, the root cause of the warming of the earth - much less the acceleration of the Earth's warming.

Edited by Alienated Being, 31 March 2012 - 08:33 PM.


#6    mitchall

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 02:11 PM

Another 'COSTLY" program using money which i feel sure could actually benefit where it is really needed !





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