15 replies to this topic

[Bella-Angelique]

http://www.nature.co...ature10831.html


They combined a version of a virus that would stick to the inside of the nose and throat with the H5N1 virus.
The H5N1 virus had a 50% mortality rate.

Edited by Bella-Angelique, 03 May 2012 - 05:29 PM.

[and then]

It sounds in the article as though they are attempting to see how the changes occur naturally so they can get on top ASAP when a natural mutation occurs.  Once an easily transmissible variant occurs it will be too late to help millions.

[awest]

They have already been stockpiling vaccines for an H5N1 outbreak. If it occurs it will likely be well prepared for. Also the 2009 pandemic was not H5N1, it was H1N1 and had a mortalitly rate less then that of the seasonal flu.

Edited by awest, 03 May 2012 - 05:25 PM.

[Bella-Angelique]

awest, on 03 May 2012 - 05:19 PM, said:

the 2009 pandemic  had a mortalitly rate less then that of the seasonal flu.

Thanks for spotting mistake I wrote.

[JayMark]

I think I have seen an article about it in a book written in the 60's. It talked about a deadly virus and it had to do with rabbits. I think it was one of the same class at least. It was said in the book that some people wanted to use it for biological weapon development.

Damn, I can't remember. I've seen that a long time ago. It might have been something completely diffrent.

Does it ring a bell to anybody?

[awest]

Bella-Angelique, on 03 May 2012 - 05:28 PM, said:

Thanks for spotting mistake I wrote.

No problem. You were right about the mortality rate of H5N1, you were just mistaken about the virus that caused the 2009 pandemic, which was the H1N1. H5N1 has almost a 60% mortality rate but there have only been 566 cases of it since 2003, with 332 deaths(according to the World Health Organization).

[unit]

hmmm...


..let's breed these 12 foot killer monsters..


..incase people are ever attacked by 12 foot killer monsters?





ooooooookay?

[and then]

I think they were just building "pieces" of the monsters to see how to defeat one when it actually arrives.  At least that's what I got from it.  Dangerous still, to be sure, but if they do nothing then while they are playing catch up millions could be dying.  

I became a serious believer in the lethality of influenza after reading John Barry's Historical account of the Spanish Flu of 1918.  THE GREAT INFLUENZA  is a book that will scare the crap out of the average person who knows not much about virology/biology.  It's a little heavy in the first few chapters as he tells the history of virology basically but after that when he deals with the transmission and attempts to quarantine.... It'll give you nightmares.  Cities like Philadelphia and Boston had death rates in the tens of thousands.  Mass graves, quarantines, curfews...even martial law.  Uninfected people who were otherwise disabled died because their neighbors were too terrified to even look in on them.

[FurthurBB]

awest, on 03 May 2012 - 05:19 PM, said:

They have already been stockpiling vaccines for an H5N1 outbreak. If it occurs it will likely be well prepared for. Also the 2009 pandemic was not H5N1, it was H1N1 and had a mortalitly rate less then that of the seasonal flu.

The mortality rate is actually quite a bit higher for H1N1 than the seasonal flu, but since most people over the age of 60 had some amount of immunity to it, which actually helped us learn a lot about how the influenza virus mutates in general, it was not near as bad as expected.

[FurthurBB]

and then, on 03 May 2012 - 05:14 PM, said:

It sounds in the article as though they are attempting to see how the changes occur naturally so they can get on top ASAP when a natural mutation occurs.  Once an easily transmissible variant occurs it will be too late to help millions.

Always nice to see a little common sense thrown into the mix.

[awest]

FurthurBB, on 03 May 2012 - 10:19 PM, said:

The mortality rate is actually quite a bit higher for H1N1 than the seasonal flu, but since most people over the age of 60 had some amount of immunity to it, which actually helped us learn a lot about how the influenza virus mutates in general, it was not near as bad as expected.

"Seasonal flu has a death rate of less than 0.1 percent -- but still manages to kill 250,000 to 500,000 people globally every year.A category 5 pandemic would compare to the 1918 flu pandemic, which had an estimated death rate of 2 percent or more, and would kill tens of million of people.Lipsitch took information from around the world on how many people had reported they had influenza-like illness, which may or may not actually be influenza; government reports of actual hospitalizations and confirmed deaths.He came up with a range of mortality from swine flu, from 0.007 percent to 0.045 percent."This is from http://www.reuters.c...E58E6NZ20090916 if you would like to check for yourself.

[awest]

Though it did have a much higher mortality rate in the lesser developed areas, such as Mexico.

Edited by awest, 03 May 2012 - 10:54 PM.

[Paracelse]

JayMark, on 03 May 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:

I think I have seen an article about it in a book written in the 60's. It talked about a deadly virus and it had to do with rabbits. I think it was one of the same class at least. It was said in the book that some people wanted to use it for biological weapon development.

Damn, I can't remember. I've seen that a long time ago. It might have been something completely diffrent.

Does it ring a bell to anybody?

Could be this book by Tony Hillerman:  The Wailing Wind a Joe Leaphorn and Jim Chee interesting novel;  There was also a Clive Cussler novel in which terrorists attempted to retrieve elements of the 1918 Spanish flu somewhere in the North were bodies of the victims had been buried in permafrost.

[FurthurBB]

awest, on 03 May 2012 - 10:52 PM, said:

"Seasonal flu has a death rate of less than 0.1 percent -- but still manages to kill 250,000 to 500,000 people globally every year.A category 5 pandemic would compare to the 1918 flu pandemic, which had an estimated death rate of 2 percent or more, and would kill tens of million of people.Lipsitch took information from around the world on how many people had reported they had influenza-like illness, which may or may not actually be influenza; government reports of actual hospitalizations and confirmed deaths.He came up with a range of mortality from swine flu, from 0.007 percent to 0.045 percent."This is from http://www.reuters.c...E58E6NZ20090916 if you would like to check for yourself.

I do not need news articles, I work in this field, thanks.

[Copasetic]

FurthurBB, on 04 May 2012 - 10:51 AM, said:

I do not need news articles, I work in this field, thanks.

I dig what you are saying Further, but technically Awest is correct. Because mortality rate refers to a number of deaths in a population, per 100,000 in a given period of time. So his statement that the 2009 H1N1 pandemic had a lower mortality rate than that years seasonal flu is correct. It did in the specified time.

I also agree with what you are saying though, that H1N1 is in fact, more deadly than the seasonals that come around. If we expand the period of H1N1 infections, stretching back to cover previous pandemics than the mortality rate is higher than the yearly flu.

You guys are apples and oranges at the moment Which gets doubly confusing when we start talking epidemiology. Hell even the epidemiologists confuse themselves with all their specificity

Edited by Copasetic, 04 May 2012 - 09:29 PM.