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2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2012 atlantic hurricane season forecast

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#16    Raptor Witness

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 06:16 AM

View PostQuiteContrary, on 07 July 2012 - 01:23 AM, said:

I'm new to living in a possible hurricane's path and this report came out about a month ago for our new home: Houston/Harris county.

According to the analysis by Civil Tech Engineering, a Category 4 hurricane moving northwest at 10 mph would cause $309 billion in property damage and $65 billion in business interruptions.
The study predicts nearly 800,000 homes in Harris County would be severely damaged or destroyed - 80 percent of the total housing stock - along with 50,000 commercial buildings.
"That's just wind damage," said Melvin Spinks, president of Houston-based Civil Tech. "It doesn't include flooding from rain or surge."

I would love to see some scientific papers on sediment in and around Houston, to get some sense of how frequently they get slammed hard. I would hope that given the population, someone has done or at least attempted to do such a study.

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#17    Q-C

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 10:21 AM

View PostRaptor Witness, on 07 July 2012 - 06:16 AM, said:

I would love to see some scientific papers on sediment in and around Houston, to get some sense of how frequently they get slammed hard. I would hope that given the population, someone has done or at least attempted to do such a study.

Yes, this is from the  2012 report on a wind assessment study Houston commissioned them to do. They said we are overdue as the last monster storm was in 1915 when there were only 100,000 people living here. Here is the link. I don't know if it will help you find more info or not.

http://www.chron.com...ind-3605028.php

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#18    Raptor Witness

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 04:05 PM

We're hearing a lot of record breaking, in terms of the heat in the Midwest this year, and Chicago is a particularly common barometer being used. Suffice to say that it's been hotter in Chicago only once this early, since record keeping began in the late 1800's.

Using this simple measure for a general comparison in the overall pattern, we have to go back to the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1934. That year wasn't particularly busy, in terms of the number of storms, but for those who watch the usual pattern we see out there, there was a prominent shift westward for all Atlantic systems that formed that year.

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#19    Raptor Witness

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Posted 13 July 2012 - 06:42 AM

It looks like La Nina is returning to the Eastern Pacific. This increases the chances for an active Atlantic hurricane season. Some amateur forecasters are speculating that the unusual number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific this year may be responsible for the sudden cooling trend off the coast of Peru, extending westward.

It's an interesting theory, and one I wouldn't discount, as the purpose in nature of tropical storms and hurricanes, is to transport heat from the equatorial regions to the arctic latitudes. So why should we be so surprised by this recent development? Especially since it appeared, beginning in February of 2012(I've read) that El Nino was returning.  

Hmmmm, not so fast says Mother Nature.

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#20    Raptor Witness

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Posted 31 July 2012 - 08:16 PM

It's time to wake up Mother Nature. It's time to roll.


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#21    Raptor Witness

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Posted 02 August 2012 - 04:22 PM

If this one continues on its forecast path, Ernesto will be passing over a sea of gasoline before entering the Gulf of Mexico. The water is not just hot in the northwestern Caribbean, it's hot all the way down to the sea bed.

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#22    Raptor Witness

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Posted 04 August 2012 - 02:52 PM

I can't do this update any better than this poster ...

The Atlantic has suddenly come alive with activity.



Edited by Raptor Witness, 04 August 2012 - 02:53 PM.

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#23    Raptor Witness

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Posted 05 August 2012 - 09:46 AM

Etymology of Ernesto - The baby boy name Ernest is pronounced as AHRNahST (English) †. Ernest is an English, French, and Slavic name of Germanic origin. Derived from the element 'eornost' meaning earnest, seriousness, steadfastness, battle to the death.

Now that we know what his name means, it puts things in clearer perspective, perhaps?

Seriously ... given the mouthful ahead, can we count this one out? The hair suddenly standing up on the back of my neck, says no.

Never forget "Ike," and remember who founded NASA. Call it a coincidence, but the fact remains, Mission Control is where his namesake went.

Perhaps in some rare cases, destiny can be by design.

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#24    Raptor Witness

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 03:28 AM

Forward speed is going to be a big factor with this system. Note how the forecast for the developing trough over the central U.S. has deepened since yesterday.

Hold onto your horses Ernestoy, it looks like cavalry reinforcements are on the way ...

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#25    Raptor Witness

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Posted 06 August 2012 - 11:24 AM



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#26    Raptor Witness

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 08:00 AM

Ernesto landed in Mexico and given the pinhole eye that developed shortly afterwards, weather geeks are speculating that this thing possibly strengthened to a major hurricane. We may never know how strong he managed to get, because the hurricane hunters weren't flying through at this time, and the area where he came ashore is sparsely populated with little or equipment to record the wind.

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Changing the subject, a very vigorous wave is poised to move off the African Continent in the next day or so. It's rare to see one this strong while still over land. It will probably die down once it moves out over the water, but it's still worth watching carefully, as it could restrengthen rapidly as it moves further west.

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#27    Raptor Witness

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 05:02 AM

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Post 351. Neapolitan 12:32 AM GMT on August 10, 2012 - Weather Underground

If 93L (or TD7) can become Helene in the next few days, it will be the second earliest appearance of an eighth Atlantic tropical cyclone, beating an unnamed hurricane in 1936 that formed on August 15. (First place is, of course, 2005, which was already up to Irene by now, though Jose didn't appear until August 22, and Katrina two days after that.)

Climatologically-speaking, the 7th named system doesn't appear until September 16, and the 8th not until September 24, so 2012 is at least five weeks ahead of schedule. (Hurricane-wise, the third one doesn't form until September 9, so 2012 has a good chance of beating that, as well.)

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Perhaps my forecast(April 5, 2012) of many butterflies is coming true ... ?

Count their number on the canvas, and note that those on the table are different.

View PostRaptor Witness, on 01 June 2012 - 09:51 AM, said:



Edited by Raptor Witness, 10 August 2012 - 05:04 AM.

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#28    Raptor Witness

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Posted 16 August 2012 - 07:52 PM

Gordon is going bye bye ...

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#29    Raptor Witness

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 04:45 AM

Helene lives ...

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#30    Raptor Witness

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Posted 22 August 2012 - 06:47 AM

All I can say is, "wow."

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Edited by Raptor Witness, 22 August 2012 - 06:54 AM.

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Also tagged with 2012, atlantic, hurricane, season, forecast

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