Liquid Gardens, on 19 December 2012 - 02:15 AM, said:
The obvious first issue is that you are making this argument with the presumption that what you have identified as a peculiarity or a meaningful coincidence is actually one. Let's go through a couple scenarios with the Pentagon. Let's say that the Pentagon was not reinforced on any particular side, do you agree that this then become something that does not require an explanation and is just random? Unless you dig further and find some other coincidence that you find compatible with one of an infinite number of ways a false flag operation could manifest itself, and then we must start multiplying our chain of coincidences by 1/5 again? Why stop there, why not ask why the plane hit the exact place it did on that side, and maybe then we have a 1/25 chance based on the ratio of the width of the plane to a side of the Pentagon, maybe if there was some particular office or 'bunker' that needed to be destroyed which, you may believe, also fits well with some conception of a false flag. Which was part of the reason I brought up the astronomical odds of getting to work at a specific time and hitting all the red lights at exactly the time I did; it wasn't to make a comment about chains of coincidences, it was to comment that the more granularity you put into your 'coincidence' and the more probabilities you multiply together, then necessarily the odds of that particular thing happening the exact way it did comes out to be very low. Also in this case where we narrowed it to the exact spot where it hit, we could then lead in to there's no way poor Hani could have been so precise, ergo this becomes an argument 'pointing in the direction' of remote-controlled planes, and on and on we go through all the mazes of different permutations of things that could be, all based on one unproven assumption.
To your first question above, this is already answered at the end of my
post #853 - it becomes a non-event.
Separate from that, I will use the examples you mention above to explain how one occurrence is meaningful and the other not necessarily so: -
The ‘coincidence’ of the impact at the Pentagon occurring to the one segment of five where the renovation had recently been completed, meant that 800 workers were in the area opposed to the usual 4,500. In addition, the impact to that particular area significantly reduced damage to the building and gave the best test-run of the newly reinforced construction possible. Of course then there is a meaningful and very visible difference, dependent whether the impact occurred to that one segment or the other four non-renovated segments. It is the type of difference that, as it happened, did not suit terrorist aims but that of false flag planning (more on that later). Either way, there is a meaningful difference in the casualty/damage outcome.
There is also this argument we hear, stating the impact occurred at that specific location due to targeting of an audit office. This, in contrast to the above, I do not find a particular coincidence or peculiarity. I happen to know that there are more offices in the Pentagon dealing with finance matters than just the ‘ONI’. Therefore, any of these numerous offices around the building could be impacted and a speculative argument made that the purpose was to cover-up financial irregularities, i.e. it is not of a low probability that such an office should be hit. Plus the fact, I know that complete financial audit trails cannot be removed by whacking a plane into one branch of the records. In all, that the plane impacted an office dealing with financial audits is not ‘against the odds’ to begin and any plan to do so would not make sense in any case. I do not see how impacting the ‘ONI’ is necessarily meaningful, or even a notable coincidence at all.
What it comes down to when identifying our meaningful ‘coincidences’ are perhaps the following questions: -
1. Is it unusual or of low probability?
2. Does it make a clear, potential or realised, difference?
3. Does it favour terrorist or false flag planning?
When the occurrence is of low probability, at least potentially makes an obvious difference to result of the attack and in a way that appears to favour false flag planning, then we can put it down as one of our 9/11 coincidences.
The ‘coincidence’ of the impact at the Pentagon occurring to the one segment of five where the renovation had recently been completed, is affirmed by these questions. The ‘coincidence’ that the impact occurred at that specific location due to targeting of an audit office is discarded through those questions.
Liquid Gardens, on 19 December 2012 - 02:15 AM, said:
Back to your quote above, the more glaring problem is the point at which and how you determine that something is a meaningful coincidence to which to apply a probability. You don't seem to really have any good argument or evidence supporting the specific idea that your plotters would want to limit damage at the Pentagon, this seems to be a very precise interpretation of 'Pearl Harbor' that is definitely not supported by the text. Why don't you apply "Why suffer their own country more casualties and damage than thought necessary?" to WTC? Pearl Harbor was a military attack, it would be more consistent for our plotters, if they were trying to reproduce it, to favor damaging something like the Pentagon as much as possible. Doesn't the multiplication of your probability on this point in your chain of coincidence argument rely on you being very correct and having a convincing case that the plotters wanted (not 'may have wanted') to hit the most reinforced side?
Sorry, but why make such a dogs dinner of a simple issue? The required pretext was an event, “like a new Pearl Harbor”. Not “a reproduction of”, but “like”. I’ll ask again more directly in the hope of a straight answer: why kill tenfold the victims necessary to achieve likeness of that pre-designated event?
And I do apply this to the WTC also – haven’t we just discussed in my post
#843 and
#851 how the most minor and obvious of alterations to the WTC attack could have resulted in tenfold casualties? Noted you decline to discuss this properly (using flyingswan's failed response as an excuse) or attempt my thought exercise to determine whether the actual results were more likely of terrorist or false flag planning.
If you are asking, “why impact the WTC at all rather than blow the smithereens out of the Pentagon and achieve an overall similar number of casualties?”, there are viable reasons for this. The main reason would be relevant value of the WTC vs. Pentagon, the former a financial timebomb that was set to cost the government in the
double-digit billion dollars to remedy (i.e. more than the buildings were worth; essentially a colossal write-off)... until our Zionist friends recommended privatisation, fixed the bid, and purchased the site, ramping up the insurance coverage in the process. Ha, from the early 90s there was suggestion that the buildings could be demolished to avoid the cost of the necessary asbestos renovation and a dispute between the government and insurance companies over who was liable for the cost. As they say... there’s more than one way to skin a cat... they got rid of the problem buildings and the insurance companies ended up paying out. That was not main aim of the false flag, though it did make the WTC a prime target and killed two birds with one stone. In addition, there are further reasons I can think of from a false flag perspective for attacking the WTC including greater spread, visibility and psychological impact of the attack.
Liquid Gardens, on 19 December 2012 - 02:15 AM, said:
I have the same issue with the NRO exercise; I know once and maybe twice now you have snipped out my questions asking for more detail on this, the detail that would help give weight to the meaningfulness of the coincidence itself. I think I'm justified in concluding, other than your ability to connect it to the CIA which is unremarkable, that you don't really have any additional information on this, information that would help us understand how this fits in to a possible plot.
I don’t believe I have any information on the NRO exercise in addition to those remarkable details which have already been provided. That is sufficient information to address the three questions above in determining if this should be counted as a 9/11 ‘coincidence’ – which clearly it meets the criteria.
Liquid Gardens, on 19 December 2012 - 02:15 AM, said:
The point concerning the lottery was this, that the mere fact that something has a small chance of occurring specifically how it did doesn't necessarily mean it is overall unlikely. I came up with my way overestimated one in a million chance of randomly coming up with the NRO exercise. You showed no signs of having vetted this topic at all beyond this probability and moved on to the Pentagon impact, a move I was concerned about as I was hoping you would at least go down the road of explaining how you see these unlikely events, such as the lottery, differently. You hinted at it earlier when you said that you would count similar exercises at several other buildings as 'hits' also, that right there just lowered the odds of finding a coincidence like this by that number of buildings. And you could keep going, not drawing specific lines around the particulars of this coincidence, but asking how many other coincidences should you expect, the pool is enormous with 9/11. Here's originally how I thought you left it: 'the chance of the NRO exercise being planned the way it was let's hypothesize is one in a million, thus this is strong indication of something not random and a plot. Period.'. I think the response to this is along the lines of why you wouldn't accept the following: 'the chance of Suzy winning the lottery is over one in a million, thus it's a fix/cheat'. The point being overlooked in that conclusion is the fact that you have so many lottery tickets sold that the odds of someone winning are actually pretty good. I don't see why the NRO exercise example is much different, especially the way it is left right now without some evidence as to what the plotters were potentially trying to accomplish, and why they thought it would be effective at all, without involving 'maybes' of course.
The lottery is similar to the audit office example discussed above. It is as you say, and not overlooked at all - sell enough tickets, or have enough offices in a limited area, and it’s probable there will be a winner. To put the NRO exercise in the same bracket, it would need to be shown such quantity of exercises that one is likely to mimic time, location and general nature of a real-world attack. Given the sporadicity of such exercises on record (
see here), it does not appear a likely occurrence. Much like selling only 100 lottery tickets instead of however many million and then expecting a jackpot winner. Especially if our winner, Suzy, happens to be on the lottery draw staff – yeah I’m going to question if it’s a fix.
Liquid Gardens, on 19 December 2012 - 02:15 AM, said:
Well that might be a problem, how can you consider the positions of terrorists and the plotters? I wouldn't claim I know their psychology and thoughts to that specificity, especially when you don't even know who specifically the plotters are. In your earlier example pretend-we're-terrorists-in-a-cave, why are you presuming that the terrorists even cared about maximizing damage and casualties at the Pentagon to the level of instructing to hit a particular side, given all the guff about Hani's piloting skills, why do you think the instruction to just hit the building however you can is unreasonable?
Whilst you may not be able to put yourself in these others’ shoes, I certainly can. Sure, given the right level of motivation I’d do what either terrorists or those within the U.S. system did. Though it must be said that I find it rather difficult to get in the mindset of a suicide terrorist like Jarrah with a close family and girlfriend to consider – ha, does such a mindset really exist? Neither could the 9/11 Commission fathom why Jarrah did it. The comments of the Commission vice-chairman are worth repeating here: -
"I could never figure out why these 19 fellas did what they did. We looked into their backgrounds. In one or two cases, they were apparently happy, well-adjusted, not particularly religious - in one case quite well-to-do, had a girlfriend. We just couldn’t figure out why he did it. I still don’t know. And I think one of the great unanswered questions - a good topic for investigative reporters - would be: why did these 19 do what they did? We speculated in the report about why the enemy hates us, but we simply weren’t able to answer the questions about the 19."
To my mind, it’s significantly easier taking the role of an agent involved in the false flag, preserving the future global pre-eminence of my country and people, especially where I’m of a Zionist origin and the target is a foreign nation, or even where I’m a Neocon and my political philosophy is geared toward war that America’s number one position has been built upon.
So of course I can visualise how I’d go about the attack from either a terrorist or false flag perspective. We are even assisted by their guidelines; “like a new Pearl Harbor”, so it is not entirely independent in some areas.
And I do hope you are reading my posts properly before responding. I did say in my
post #851 that in context of a terrorist plan the Pentagon impact location, “must be random”. I have no issue with this, other than that the actual location impacted had a discernable effect on the outcome – one favourable to false flag planning – of course I don’t want to cause excessive casualties and damage.
Liquid Gardens, on 19 December 2012 - 02:15 AM, said:
A fine philosophical, subjective question, I don't know outside of extreme examples. Be fully aware that there are a host of fallacies and cognitive errors (pareidolia, apophenia, post hoc ergo propter hoc, etc) that arise specifically because our brains are amazing pattern recognizers, even when the patterns are meaningless.
I know, I’m aware of the pitfalls, but when it comes to 9/11 the frequency and corroboration of ‘coincidences’ and peculiarities affirmed by the three questions mentioned previously are entirely overwhelming. I can answer the question. A chain of ‘coincidence’ becomes more accurately described as a pattern when it is affirmed by the three questions, when it has meaningful consequences, when it more logically fits a plan than belief in astronomical chance occurrence. Again I think it is a case of lack of knowledge, or at least ability to piece together the bigger picture, that lets down those who don’t see it – for sure I am accounting altogether for a great many occurrences in all aspects of 9/11 that we have not been over.