I don't know what numbers to fill into equations like these, although my guess would be that nearly 100% of stars have planets and that one in ten planets might be earth-like--and therefore develop something like life as we know it. I cannot say how many planets would develop life as we do NOT know it. No one can.
My guess is that some form of intelligent life would end up developing eventually on planets that have life, even if it took time.
But what about civilizations that became star faring long ago and spread life to other planets, perhaps even colonized them or remade them in their own image? That also throws a monkey wrench into any calculations like these, with the assumption that life and civilizations always develop independently of one another. Not even the history of earth necessarily bears that out, since all civilizations here eventually made contact with each other, for better or worse, even with relatively primitive technology.