quillius, on 10 October 2012 - 01:53 PM, said:
ahh dont be surprised Boony, you know I dont buy that explanation yet.
we are still left with just two observations being chosen over many others, why?
I do have many issues with various parts of his analysis, which we have discussed before.

It wasn't just two observations.
We have Rich Contry and Mitch Stanley on the ground who each determined conclusively that the formation was planes after viewing them through binoculars and a telescope respectively. Contry also noted that he only heard the engines after they had flown over him and were heading south, and even then the sound was faint as if the planes had very low throttle. From the air we have pilots Larry Campbell and John Middleton who saw the formation and purportedly spoke with at least one of the pilots of the aircraft in formation who identified themselves as flying Tutors. We have the video captured by Terry Proctor which obviously depicts distinct lights in a varying V formation at various points of the film which proves that it was NOT a single huge triangular object, but rather 5 individual objects.
At to this the variation in descriptions from witnesses who did not definitively identify what they were looking at. We had some observers who connected the dots and concluded they represented a single craft. Some of these witnesses reported that even though they believed it was a single craft, the craft was translucent and they could see stars and even the moon through it between the lights, though there was a haziness. (notice the haziness trailing these Tutors...)
The really important points to take away from this are the consistencies.
For those which concluded they were aircraft, the made this determination without any doubt. They saw, heard, and spoke with the pilots of these aircraft. In essence, they KNEW what they were looking at, and they knew this CONCLUSIVELY.
For those which reached no conclusion, they could not determine what they were looking at. In other words, they DIDN'T KNOW what they were looking at.
Think about the significance of that for a moment.
From a position of ignorance, as is the case for someone who is unable to identify what they are looking at, what reasonable conclusions can we reach? Aside from confirming that they saw 'something,' there isn't a whole lot more we can determine. Yes they can describe their perception of what they witnessed, and from that we can possibly get useful details and information which might act as clues for helping identify what it may have been, but from a point of determining exactly what it was we can't rely solely on the ambiguity which is inherent in a situation where an unknown object is involved. We also might get invalid details from such accounts because the mind has a way of trying to fill in the gaps for us when we don't have all the pieces of the puzzle.
From a position of certainty, as is the case for the witnesses who determined that they were looking at planes in formation, what reasonable conclusions can we reach? Well, we can conclude that they saw planes. There is no doubt about this. The witnesses who identified planes saw planes because there were planes flying in formation on that night.
Where does that leave us?
If the mystery of the earlier sighting is to be maintained we must decide that the witnesses who positively identified planes were:
- Looking at something other than the other witnesses who couldn't identify the lights.
- Lying about what they saw.
- Mistaken in their identification.
If I've left anything out, please let me know.
Let's address those possibilities.
1.
In the case of Mitch Stanley at least we can determine that he was looking at the same objects, in the same region of the sky, and at the same time as Tim Ley and his family. Contry's sighting was the earliest that I'm aware of, but based on his description we know that it was roughly right before the other sightings and that the formation of aircraft were flying in the same general direction that would place them where other witnesses later saw the lights to the south. To me, this is enough to confirm that it is extremely likely that both Contry and Stanley observed the same exact lights in the sky that Tim Ley and the other witnesses of the earlier events.
2.
Why would they lie? What imaginable reason would they have to deceive about something as mundane as airplanes flying in formation? Are they government agents here to 'muddy the waters' as some like to put it? This kid was a government disinformation agent?
Forgive me if I find this notion to be completely ridiculous, but I do. I'm not suggesting that you would put this forward Q, but I have little doubt that others may be so inclined whenever they start to feel that their 'evidence' is being dismantled, invalidated, and/or disproved. It's that last clinging of hope that so many fall back on when looking into this field of UFOlogy.
3.
Finally, could they have identified these as aircraft in error? From a purely logical standpoint considering probabilities, what makes more sense to you? That these individuals who offer a positive identification of aircraft flying in formation actually mistook an alien piloted vehicle for something mundane? Or that people who are in a position of ignorance (by the mere fact that they don't know what they are looking at) may have misidentified something mundane as being something extraordinary and thereby potentially extraterrestrial?
I don't know about you, but I can easily see how someone unable to pinpoint those lights as conventional aircraft reaching all kinds of possible unconfirmed and unconfirmable conclusions. In that type of situation one's imagination can, and most likely will, run wild with the numerous possibilities. But for the life of me I can't imagine that someone looking at these objects through binoculars and a telescope can positively say "airplanes in formation" and have it be a mis-identification of what was actually one gigantic extraterrestrial vehicle. Can you?
It is primarily for these reasons that I believe the preponderance of evidence supports the conclusion that the earlier reported sighting consisted of planes flying in formation. I'm confident that these points will do nothing to modify the mysterious conclusions that many UFO=ET believers would prefer to stick to, but you Q are a man of integrity, sincerity, and intelligence. You can't just hand wave all of this away as being without merit. If you can find flaws in my reasoning, please by all means point them out.
Cheers.