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North Atlantic tropical storms increase


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#1    Br Cornelius

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Posted 30 October 2012 - 10:47 PM

http://web.archive.o...y_1930-2007.gif
This figure shows the number of named tropical storms in the North Atlantic, per year, smoothed out over a 10-year running average to minimize the noise in year-to-year variation. Since 1996, tropical storm frequency has exceeded by 40% the old historic maximum of the mid-1950s, previously considered extreme. Recent peer-reviewed studies suggest a link between higher sea surface temperature and storm frequency. Extreme weather events are a projected impact of global climate change.

http://web.archive.o...acts/storms.cfm

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Edited by Br Cornelius, 30 October 2012 - 10:53 PM.

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#2    Ashotep

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Posted 30 October 2012 - 11:43 PM

Unfortunately this may be the new normal.


#3    Little Fish

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 12:14 AM

View PostHilander, on 30 October 2012 - 11:43 PM, said:

Unfortunately this may be the new normal.
http://web.archive.o...y_1930-2007.gif

the graph above cherry picks the end point and crops the bottom of the graph, it makes it look more scary, not to mention they were not actively and accurately counting and looking for storms way back then as they are now, that's why the graph says "named" storms, and not to mention it is not a global measurement, just the atlantic, so again cherry picking if the intent was to imply storm frequency as increasing due to co2.

here is real data, up to date and honest.

http://policlimate.com/tropical/
Posted Image

here is the situation globally, as you can see there is nothing to write home about, they show a small decline in number and intensity, so your fears are not founded in the data.

Posted Image

Edited by Little Fish, 31 October 2012 - 12:16 AM.


#4    Professor Buzzkill

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 12:29 AM

You often hear alarmists stating that insurance figures prove that cyclone/hurricane intensity is up.

The fact is that in the list of the top 10 most costly hurricanes in the USA (adjusted to 2005 USD) only one has been in the period of "anthropogenic global warming" which was Hurricane Katrina (at no.2).


#5    spud the mackem

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 02:15 AM

Well I've crossed the Atlantic maybe up to 30 times in 1962/3 and I can remember only twice when we had good weather both ways,but maybe your statistics dont go back that far.The weather can brew up in a matter of a few hours whether you take the North about route,in the summer, or the South route, in the Winter,and a 40000 ton ship can be chucked about like a cork.

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#6    susieice

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 02:35 AM

You sailed into Philadelphia too didn't you Spud? Just wondering if you went up the Delaware Bay. It was bad there. I know it has a long history of shipwrecks going to the late 1600s but when I took the ferry from Cape May, NJ to Lewes, DE you could see a line of tankers and ocean type vessels I assumed were heading to Wilmington and Philly. Don't think anything like that happened now but I'm sure it was rough sailing for them with the surges going up the bay.

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#7    Br Cornelius

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 05:36 PM

Global storm tracking is not what this thread is pointing out and is not relevant. However on a Global scale extreme weather events (storms/floods/droughts) have been on a steady rise over the last century. Insurance data is the best data we have on tracking this trend - and it shows a clear upward trend in recorded extreme weather events.

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#8    spud the mackem

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 09:33 PM

View Postsusieice, on 31 October 2012 - 02:35 AM, said:

You sailed into Philadelphia too didn't you Spud? Just wondering if you went up the Delaware Bay. It was bad there. I know it has a long history of shipwrecks going to the late 1600s but when I took the ferry from Cape May, NJ to Lewes, DE you could see a line of tankers and ocean type vessels I assumed were heading to Wilmington and Philly. Don't think anything like that happened now but I'm sure it was rough sailing for them with the surges going up the bay.
  Hiya, Susie, yep Hampton Roads for orders then either to Philly or Baltimore to load up Iron Ore or Coal,then back to Rotterdam, it got really monotonous after 6 months,especially in Winter,They made a film called The Perfect Storm,which actually happened on our 3rd trip over, (I have a copy of the original weather chart.)it took 17 days from Rotterdam to your East coast, when it normally took 7.Everyone was going to give up the Sea,ha ha,but most of us signed on again.  I hope Sandy didnt cause a lot of  damage in your area.

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#9    spud the mackem

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 09:43 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 31 October 2012 - 05:36 PM, said:

Global storm tracking is not what this thread is pointing out and is not relevant. However on a Global scale extreme weather events (storms/floods/droughts) have been on a steady rise over the last century. Insurance data is the best data we have on tracking this trend - and it shows a clear upward trend in recorded extreme weather events.

Br Cornelius
  If insurance data is the best you can come up with, I dont rate it.. How about Meteorological reports where weather maps/charts give a day to day picture on world weather patterns.

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#10    susieice

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:41 AM

View Postspud the mackem, on 31 October 2012 - 09:33 PM, said:

Hiya, Susie, yep Hampton Roads for orders then either to Philly or Baltimore to load up Iron Ore or Coal,then back to Rotterdam, it got really monotonous after 6 months,especially in Winter,They made a film called The Perfect Storm,which actually happened on our 3rd trip over, (I have a copy of the original weather chart.)it took 17 days from Rotterdam to your East coast, when it normally took 7.Everyone was going to give up the Sea,ha ha,but most of us signed on again.  I hope Sandy didnt cause a lot of  damage in your area.
A lot of people without power still. Trees down everywhere and roofs blown off here in town. They said any danger of the rivers flooding is over. We here will be alright in a week or so after all the power is restored. There is only one ship I heard was in trouble and that was on the Atlantic. They were trying to go around the storm and didn't make it. It had 18 crewmen. 2 were missing and 1 died after rescue. That's the last I heard. It was called the Bountiful or something like that. It's amazing you were in that storm. I saw that movie and it didn't look good. Was it really like that?

Edited by susieice, 01 November 2012 - 02:43 AM.

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#11    Br Cornelius

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 11:54 AM

View Postspud the mackem, on 31 October 2012 - 09:43 PM, said:

If insurance data is the best you can come up with, I dont rate it.. How about Meteorological reports where weather maps/charts give a day to day picture on world weather patterns.
Why do you dismiss data from an industry who's very existance requires they have up to the minute accurate data on risk - otherwise they go out of business.
Science has the unfortunate restraint that it takes about 5yrs for a piece of research to be published from onset to public. It also generally requires a new theory to be proposed in order for that data to ever get out there. Then there is the fact that scientists are extremely reluctant to make statements which could be considered declarative.

I put my faith in where ever the actual data is strongest. However there are scientific studies showing extreme weather increases, and one of the main areas of climate research at the moment is statistical modelling of extreme weather event attribution.

Br Cornelius

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Robert Anton Wilson

#12    Doug1o29

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:20 PM

Interesting.

FYI:  I just ran the calculations for winter storms in western Arkansas.  They are fewer in number since about 1980.  Up to that point, they pretty much tracked global mean temps, but in 1980 they started decreasing in number.  No explanation.  Go figure.
Doug

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#13    spud the mackem

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 05:39 PM

View Postsusieice, on 01 November 2012 - 02:41 AM, said:

A lot of people without power still. Trees down everywhere and roofs blown off here in town. They said any danger of the rivers flooding is over. We here will be alright in a week or so after all the power is restored. There is only one ship I heard was in trouble and that was on the Atlantic. They were trying to go around the storm and didn't make it. It had 18 crewmen. 2 were missing and 1 died after rescue. That's the last I heard. It was called the Bountiful or something like that. It's amazing you were in that storm. I saw that movie and it didn't look good. Was it really like that?
   Hi Susie, The ship lost was a sailing ship, a replica of H.M.S.Bounty, and yes I was in that Hurricane,the centre was about a 100 miles away,quite a few vessels were lost,mostly fishing boats,the waves were measured by our Chief Officer, 3 waves to a mile between 60 to 80 feet high,one of them ripped our lifeboats off on the left side of the ship, we lived on corned beef sandwiches for 3 days as you couldnt cook,because the pans wouldnt stay on the stove, and everything got soaking wet, you couldnt lie on your bunk (bed) as you would be thrown off,so very little sleep,I guess we were lucky.It was great when we got to America, everyone was so helpfull,

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#14    spud the mackem

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 06:00 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 01 November 2012 - 11:54 AM, said:

Why do you dismiss data from an industry who's very existance requires they have up to the minute accurate data on risk - otherwise they go out of business.
Science has the unfortunate restraint that it takes about 5yrs for a piece of research to be published from onset to public. It also generally requires a new theory to be proposed in order for that data to ever get out there. Then there is the fact that scientists are extremely reluctant to make statements which could be considered declarative.

I put my faith in where ever the actual data is strongest. However there are scientific studies showing extreme weather increases, and one of the main areas of climate research at the moment is statistical modelling of extreme weather event attribution.

Br Cornelius
  Ok but perhaps you are commenting on risks on land when I was commenting on risks at sea,the North Atlantic in winter is a dangerous place to be in,which is what this thread is about (I think ?). Lloyds of London are the main Insurance people specialising in ships, but there are dozens of land based insurance companies for all purposes.

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#15    Professor Buzzkill

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 07:02 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 01 November 2012 - 01:20 PM, said:

Interesting.

FYI:  I just ran the calculations for winter storms in western Arkansas.  They are fewer in number since about 1980.  Up to that point, they pretty much tracked global mean temps, but in 1980 they started decreasing in number.  No explanation.  Go figure.
Doug

Surely its because of global warming? i thought everything you looked into was global warming's fault?





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