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Very high probability of extraterrestrials

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#1    qtvali


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 04:33 PM

Consider 3 points:
  • It has been shown, that one-cellular life forms can survive crashes (like meteor) and space (NASA had a rock on their space ship for 365 days, some others have crashed rocks - in both cases, some bacteria have survived).
  • Meteors and other space bodies bounce off from earth atmosphere - which means, they can come to as low as 3600 km and then bounce off. Sometimes, space rock will crash on Earth, but so strongly, that Earth soil will be blown back to Cosmos - by news, some part of it is by all calculations probably already travelled to many star systems (the one thrown away by event, which probably destroyed dinosaurs - this is good basis for space reptile myth:)).
  • If you consider movement of Sun around Earth (relativistically speaking to get simplest model) you see that bacteria there must survive very high and low temperatures, which happen up there. As air flows also up, bacteria can live also in atmosphere - and they do live everywhere they can.

Now, you see the definite mechanics, how life can travel away from earth - some sensitive bacteria can see it's path to Alpha Kentauri and go with a space rock, and hibernate for 160 000 years ;) Earth is 4.5 billion years old, life here is 3.6 - with 25 million small meteores per day (mostly dust) and still many per year, if you put Earths history into a hour, then it would be 1200 years per second - asteroids would fly in all directions. If it's cold at the middle and hot around it, going through Earth atmosphere, and contains water and organic elements, asteroid can grow some bacteria when in ideal condition; then some stone can blow this asteroid up and life will travel.

The array will sometimes send some DNA parts (bacteria can just pick them up and try, so much of random DNA on other planets will be checked out, if there is compatible DNA-based life) and sometimes some amobea (all Earth DNA shares some primitive parts of our genes). This primitive part might be enough to make up a planet - compunds of air and our atmosphere has been built by life. Cosmic evolution would guarantee that after some time, forms it creates on similar planets are similar - this is highly probable that once we get to cosmos, we will find humanoid, reptiloid (in instance dinos didn't die out somewhere) and maybe insect-life conscious life forms.

Now, consider the probabilities in case life *can* travel:
  • Consider that we have a planet and divide it to eight parts with same size.
  • Consider that we take one part and find life.
  • Probability that life first appeared on that part is 1/8.


Take an unit, which is km2a - square kilometer or other size measure multiplied with time measure. For one km2a there is some average probability that life would appear. Lets take average probability of life appearance in space for 1 km2a as P, average probability of life appearance on Earth for 1 km2a as p.

Now lets say that if earth is x square kilometers in size and t square kilometers old, then e = x * t * p (probability of life appearing on Earth, not coming from other place, is x times t times p).

Now lets make a list of all planets, from where life could have travelled to Earth, multipliing their size and age, and multipliing the result with probability that it got to Earth from that place, and including life-supporting asteroids and other space rocks. Lets add the result of this multiplication together, to get age-size of our neighbourhood, and lets call this E.

Now the probability that life appeared first on Earth and not on some other planet is e / E - almost non-existent.


Edited by Daughter of the Nine Moons, 16 November 2012 - 05:45 PM.
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#2    Ryu


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 05:04 PM

There are some seemingly inhospitable places right here on our planet such as the scalding and acidic waters around undersea volcanic vents where life thrives. Fish, crustaceans and so forth.
I read that there are worm-like...umm..worms that live in the ice..the list goes on so I agree that it is quite possible and probable that life exists on other worlds, many of which would be hostile to human or most earth life. The forms might differ as well too.

So I agree with your premise but the challenge lies in finding that "life"; the real challenge lies in that we are looking for life as WE know it and assuming any life will look like what we have..and it might and might not. We just don't know.
However if life does exist elsewhere then it should not be such a stretch to contemplate that there are beings that have evolved to have civilizations similar to us...but they aren't going to be naked, drooling monsters or glowing angels either.
I can only hope some of them are less hostile than we are.

#3    OverSword


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 05:04 PM

Bacteria traveling through the vacuum of space for potentially millions of years, doing a fiery crash through an alien atmosphere and then evolving into an ecosystem is really far fetched, it's not completely impossible, but I'm doubting that's how it works.  I also question just how far any soil torn from the earth during the extinction event meteor you mention could escape our own suns gravity to travel to another solar system. Even if it did with the distances it would have to travel and the speeds I would guess those soil samples would not have even reached Jupiter yet.

#4    Taun


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 05:13 PM

To escape the solar system it would take an object travelling at 1,000 km per second.... That's pretty danged fast... I seriously doubt that a microbe or bacterium could be accelerated to that speed by natural forces...

#5    bmk1245


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 05:27 PM

View Postqtvali, on 16 November 2012 - 04:38 PM, said:

Now the probability that life appeared first on Earth and not on some other planet is e / E - almost non-existent.
How you calculated probability that life appeared first on planet Wdutsah, or planet Waszdas, or etc etc?

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#6    Mr Right Wing

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 05:29 PM

View Postqtvali, on 16 November 2012 - 04:33 PM, said:


One thing I've realised is not to expect the expected.

When we talk about there being a high probability of alien life the probability is based on our current assumptions, ideas and perceptions. We dont know what the future holds, where we are going or what we will discover.

I think in 50 years time when our understanding of Quantum Mechanics has matured we may realise we humans are living right now in an 11 dimensional civilization without even realising it. One where higher beings in our civilization are making the decisions and guiding us towards an outcome we've yet to realise.

Lets face it we all have little bizarre experiences in life we dont like to talk about. I think they make changes when things go off course to what it is we're experiencing as reality.

Edited by Daughter of the Nine Moons, 16 November 2012 - 05:46 PM.
Removed "wall of text" quote

#7    Ashotep


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:25 PM

I have a strong feeling that there is life out there and it has been here.  It might be why we are here.  Any lifeforms that is going to advance no matter what principle/chemical their life is based on will have to be able to think, retain knowledge, be able to move about and manipulate things to move them.

#8    ReaperS_ParadoX


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 08:01 PM

I could see that



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