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Projections of sea level are underestimated


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#1    questionmark

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:27 PM

New Scientist said:

Expect more water to lap at your shores. That's the take-home message from two studies out this week that look at the latest data on sea level rise due to climate change.

The first shows that current projections for the end of the century may seriously underestimate the rise in global sea levels. The other, on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, looks at just how much of the water stored up there has been moving into the oceans.

Both demonstrate that global warming is a real and imminent threat.

Read more


Edited by questionmark, 03 December 2012 - 02:28 PM.

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#2    Valdemar the Great

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:36 PM

What's the matter, not apocalyptic enough were they? Decided they need to be even more dramatic? If all these Climate Change experts were perhaps to direct their talents towards some suggestions as to how to help people adapt to this and how to live with it, rather than just standing and issuing dire prophecies like Old testament prophets, and yelling "it's all your fault" [meaning, of course, everyone but them], and "You wouldn't listen to us", they might perhaps be able to make a useful contribution, and people will be more willing to listen to them. Just shouting at people tends not to be a very good way of getting people to listen to your arguments.

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#3    Br Cornelius

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:56 PM

View Post747400, on 03 December 2012 - 02:36 PM, said:

What's the matter, not apocalyptic enough were they? Decided they need to be even more dramatic? If all these Climate Change experts were perhaps to direct their talents towards some suggestions as to how to help people adapt to this and how to live with it, rather than just standing and issuing dire prophecies like Old testament prophets, and yelling "it's all your fault" [meaning, of course, everyone but them], and "You wouldn't listen to us", they might perhaps be able to make a useful contribution, and people will be more willing to listen to them. Just shouting at people tends not to be a very good way of getting people to listen to your arguments.
When politicians have resolutely set their heart against taking any meaningful action there is little for the scientists to do other than issue dire  warnings. Please don't blame the scientists for doing their jobs, look to the politicians to vent your spleen on.

Scientists have precisely no power to effect the changes which are needed - unless we citizens and our political representatives delegate them that power. The fault here is squarely with us as citizens for failing to take the scientists warnings seriously.


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Edited by Br Cornelius, 03 December 2012 - 03:00 PM.

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#4    GreenmansGod

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 03:17 PM

Maybe I should start making dates for renting out my place for when it becomes beach front property.

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#5    ealdwita

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 03:18 PM

Huh-oh, here comes another tax hike!

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#6    Br Cornelius

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 03:25 PM

View Postealdwita, on 03 December 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:

Huh-oh, here comes another tax hike!
How succinctly you sumerize the failure of us to take the science seriously. Those nasty politicans want another excuse to tax us - how convenient of the scientists to find them climate change.

Meanwhile in the real world - the climate continues to change.

Br Cornelius

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#7    shaddow134

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 03:40 PM

Climate change is real,and we could end going into an Extinction event on a very large scale.If sea temperatures rise and the vast areas of frozen Methane on the sea floor begin to melt you could be looking at a runaway train that you can't stop.

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#8    wolfknight

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:03 PM

So we are looking at a Water World.  That much of a rise a year isn't that much to panic about. If it was a foot or 2 a year thenh I would worry.


#9    Doug1o29

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 08:23 PM

View Postwolfknight, on 03 December 2012 - 04:03 PM, said:

So we are looking at a Water World.  That much of a rise a year isn't that much to panic about. If it was a foot or 2 a year thenh I would worry.
Whether 3.2 mm per year is important depends on where you live and how close to the sea that is.  At Acadia National Park (coast of Maine) it's not even noticeable.  But in Bangla Desh, that's the loss of not quite eight acres of of farmland for each mile of shoreline (Forty acres can grow a lifetime supply of food for one person in one year.).  In other words, that small rise in sea level has wiped out the livlihoods of 72 familes in the last 20 years (and that's just in Bangla Desh).  And there's worse to come.
Doug

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#10    Professor Buzzkill

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 08:32 PM

So whats the solution?


#11    ealdwita

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 08:47 PM

View PostProfessor Buzzkill, on 03 December 2012 - 08:32 PM, said:

So whats the solution?

At present, the preferred solution (in the UK at least) is to pay huge subsidies to inefficient wind factories and other pipe dreams, pile more and more tax on fuel and energy sources, sign up to unrealistic 'treaties' and condemn thousands of UK households to 'fuel poverty' whilst 'emerging economies' such as China and India are pumping tons of poisonous gasses into the atmosphere and discharging gallons of waste into our seas!  This country could go back to the carbon footprint of the Bronze Age and still not make the slightest difference to the climate!

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#12    Doug1o29

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 08:50 PM

View PostProfessor Buzzkill, on 03 December 2012 - 08:32 PM, said:

So whats the solution?
In the short term, there probably isn't one.  We have already entrained a substantial amount of sea level rise just by allowing the climate to warm as much as it already has.

But in the long run:
1.  Quit adding to the problem:  limit CO2 emissions and replace current power systems with non-polluting ones.
2,  Replace existing cropping systems with tillage methods that increase soil storage of carbon (In the developed world, this could be done in as little as two or three years.).
3.  Replace fossil fuels with wind, solar, tidal, geothermal and biomass systems.
4.  Lower atmospheric CO2 (In effect, geo-engineering) to no more than 350 ppm - should be lower, but we can probably live with 350 ppm.
5.  Low priority, but there are still quite a few acres in naturally-forested areas that are unstocked, or understocked with trees.
6.  Most of the world cooks with wood:  develop more-efficient wood stoves for cooking and distribute them to third-world families.

That's a short list.  There are other things we can do, but they are mostly variants of these.
Doug

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#13    Doug1o29

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 09:04 PM

View Postealdwita, on 03 December 2012 - 08:47 PM, said:

At present, the preferred solution (in the UK at least) is to pay huge subsidies to inefficient wind factories and other pipe dreams, pile more and more tax on fuel and energy sources, sign up to unrealistic 'treaties' and condemn thousands of UK households to 'fuel poverty' whilst 'emerging economies' such as China and India are pumping tons of poisonous gasses into the atmosphere and discharging gallons of waste into our seas!  This country could go back to the carbon footprint of the Bronze Age and still not make the slightest difference to the climate!
I don't know how you Brits managed to screw this up.  In the US, wind is cheaper than coal, oil or biomass and comparable to natural gas.  Far from costing more, conversion will save money.

So how do we handle China?  The US can adopt the following strategies:
1.  Balance the Federal budget.  Then insist that China go along with pollution control if it wants the money back that we've already borrowed from it.  A few other incentives, like favorable trade status could also be used.
2.  A carbon fee charged at the well-head, mine mouth or port-of-entry (This is where we get China.), including fees for leaked or flared-off gas and/or oil.  This should be distributed EQUALLY to every citizen who files an income tax return (Dependent children limited to two per family.).  Fees should start low and gradually rise to give the economy a chance to adjust.  Let each person decide for himself how to spend his carbon funds (No taxes on carbon money.).  Purchasing decisions made by each person at the margin will gradualloy direct spending away from carbon-expensive products.
Doug

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The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#14    ealdwita

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 09:14 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 03 December 2012 - 09:04 PM, said:


So how do we handle China?  The US can adopt the following strategies:
1.  Balance the Federal budget.  Then insist that China go along with pollution control if it wants the money back that we've already borrowed from it.  A few other incentives, like favorable trade status could also be used.
2.  A carbon fee charged at the well-head, mine mouth or port-of-entry (This is where we get China.), including fees for leaked or flared-off gas and/or oil.  This should be distributed EQUALLY to every citizen who files an income tax return (Dependent children limited to two per family.).  Fees should start low and gradually rise to give the economy a chance to adjust.  Let each person decide for himself how to spend his carbon funds (No taxes on carbon money.).  Purchasing decisions made by each person at the margin will gradualloy direct spending away from carbon-expensive products.
Doug

Hmm. Sounds a little like a 'Treaty of Versailles' to me. I'm not sure the Chinese would take too kindly to it! Like the idea of limits on children though. Overpopulation is probably the main threat to be overcome in the coming decades.

"Gæð a wyrd swa hio scel, ac gecnáwan þín gefá!": "Fate goes ever as she shall, but know thine enemy!".
I can teach you with a quip, if I've a mind; I can trick you into learning with a laugh; Oh, winnow all my folly and you'll find, A grain or two of truth among the chaff!
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#15    Michelle

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 09:45 PM

People have no idea what constitutes petroleum based products and the energy involved in producing them. There is no way they are going to do without the items they use on a daily basis to make any real effect on the environment.

If people are really concerned they should google petroeum based products and stop buying things like toothbrushes and tires for their environmentally friendly bikes and their helmets. I'm constantly amazed, and I'm not talking about you Doug, that people think it is so easy to get away from petroleum based products in this day and age.





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