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Occum's Razor = some Crop Circles are 'real'


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#61    laver

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 01:05 AM

View PostEsoteric Toad, on 10 January 2013 - 12:51 AM, said:

And let's not forget orbs :tu:

Indeed, there are some interesting accounts of orbs sometimes being connected to crop design creation


#62    bison

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 02:39 AM

There do appear to be some microwave-like effects on crops, that diminish with distance from the center of the formation. Most crop circles are slightly oval rather than perfect circles. This could be interpreted as the 'footprint' of a radiant beam from above, aimed slightly off the vertical.   We also have numerous accounts of interference with electronic devices taken into certain circles; typically the unusual  draining of batteries. How this is to be explained is unclear.

Edited by bison, 10 January 2013 - 02:43 AM.


#63    DingoLingo

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 03:07 AM

I will wait for the day when there is credible evidence that crop circles are not man made.. so far.. that has never been shown..


#64    psyche101

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 03:42 AM

View PostDingoLingo, on 10 January 2013 - 03:07 AM, said:

I will wait for the day when there is credible evidence that crop circles are not man made.. so far.. that has never been shown..

I have tracked down the source of the OP's claim.

Surprise, surprise. Guess what, It's Pravda.

How is it Russian Scientists seem to be the whackiest. I imagine that they all look a bit like the German Scientist from Iron Sky.

They are not saying "it is unknown or ET". Not at all. They figure lightning strikes release microwaves that create crop circles. In fact, they are even rather upset (that;s gotta say something!!) with the insinuations, such as the OP has put forth.


Quote

A recent documentary about mysterious crop circles aired on "ORT" along with several publications in Russian newspaper "Arguments and Facts" once again begin to stir up the media. The latter mentions an interesting "version of one biophysicist from Krasnoyarsk". Interestingly, I first reported my point of views on "Pravda.Ru"'s website. Later, the information became known in various media sources abroad.
What saddens me the most is the fact that Russians continue being exposed to the nonsensical information about the extraterrestrial. In reality, such facts pertain to an absolutely different topic. Today, I am willing to return to my previous topic and reveal certain facts.
Perhaps, there exists a more global reason behind all this. Perhaps, people are intentionally trying to make alien existence a reality in order to persuade people of some revolutionary ideas. Besides, many of the "drawings" resemble a revolutionary perspective in scientific development. In other words, people might think that it is extraterrestrial intellect that transfers its valuable data to us. Whereas in reality, it might all be created by humans.
As for me personally, I think that the whole deal about crop circles is nothing but an evil game played by "financial gods." New Russians for instance have plenty of money to spare. They buy elephants, golden toilets and what not. Western billionaires have their own weirdness. They also like to confuse the public.


LINK


Even the original premise is wrong, and some half cooked nonsense probably gleaned from one of these UFO websites with garish colours, but from what I can tell, this "hypothesis" is not suited to this very forum, but perhaps Natural World. Because the actual claim is:


Quote


A crop circle is in fact an ancient phenomenon. It is a result of scantily studied process dealing with atmospheric electricity. There exists a special term in electrical engineering -"glow discharge." The term resembles a similar incident where quite lightning along with condensation occurs on rye or ear fields. The stems accumulate the charge. Now, let me describe the actual mechanism of such process.
Obviously, there has to be some kind of force that pushes stems to the ground. How? In a crop circle, stems are bent in a spiral, as a result of a vertical air flow. Air needed to be lifted in order to result in such vertical air flow. Air begins moving upward only when it heats up. Therefore, there had to be temperature increase at a certain point which later had moved upward after coming in touch with cool air from the sides. So what about the stems? Well, the stems heat up as a result of soil temperature increase. As a result, those stems loose their firmness and bend easily.
Today, there appear quite harmless yet rather mysterious crop circles world wide. After examining the actual mechanism of such crops, someone decided to use it for their own reasons. Obviously, modern technology enables people to create practically anything. Beginning from late 80s, there appeared numerous circles on multiple fields across the world.
How can one heat up the soil from afar? Everyone is aware of microwave ovens. Besides, there have already been reports about newly designed “weapon” aimed at scaring away naughty demonstrators. The device is aimed at a person’s face and heats up the skin. Today, the only question concerns the way such beam will be able to reach quite distant territory.
After publishing my recent article "Aliens are nothing! Transnational corporations draw crop circles," I have received numerous e-mails and letters from interested readers. Extraterrestrial lovers however do not accept such stand point. They pose a reasonable question, "why would any transnational corporation be interested in creating such circles and therefore perplexing people?"


The author goes on to call these corporations "wealthy satanists"

Honestly, I am not sure how much "science" is involved is any at all, but it does read like it was written by a superstitious person. Not a scientist.


And yes, as everyone suspected, the usage of Occam's Razor is fallacious and incorrect.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#65    DONTEATUS

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 04:06 AM

:clap: WHere do we get in Line for our Free Prize?

This is a Work in Progress!

#66    psyche101

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 05:19 AM

View PostDONTEATUS, on 10 January 2013 - 04:06 AM, said:

:clap: WHere do we get in Line for our Free Prize?

You get to watch Iron Sky :D

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#67    laver

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:41 AM

View Postbison, on 10 January 2013 - 02:39 AM, said:

There do appear to be some microwave-like effects on crops, that diminish with distance from the center of the formation. Most crop circles are slightly oval rather than perfect circles. This could be interpreted as the 'footprint' of a radiant beam from above, aimed slightly off the vertical.   We also have numerous accounts of interference with electronic devices taken into certain circles; typically the unusual  draining of batteries. How this is to be explained is unclear.

The ovality of crop circles is interesting and brings to mind the shape of ancient stone circles which are often not true circles at all. Much research has been done on this notably by Professor Thom and his son over many years who propose an ancient knowledge of geometry. Although initially discounted this seems now to be being given much more serious consideration. The proximity of many crop designs to ancient locations on the landscape and having a focal point in Wiltshire with its many ancient sites is worthy of consideration. The interference with electronic devices is a strange fact but might be another way of drawing our attention to these phenomena


#68    bison

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 07:41 PM

View Postpsyche101, on 10 January 2013 - 03:42 AM, said:

I have tracked down the source of the OP's claim.

Surprise, surprise. Guess what, It's Pravda.

How is it Russian Scientists seem to be the whackiest. I imagine that they all look a bit like the German Scientist from Iron Sky.

They are not saying "it is unknown or ET". Not at all. They figure lightning strikes release microwaves that create crop circles. In fact, they are even rather upset (that;s gotta say something!!) with the insinuations, such as the OP has put forth.





LINK


Even the original premise is wrong, and some half cooked nonsense probably gleaned from one of these UFO websites with garish colours, but from what I can tell, this "hypothesis" is not suited to this very forum, but perhaps Natural World. Because the actual claim is:





The author goes on to call these corporations "wealthy satanists"

Honestly, I am not sure how much "science" is involved is any at all, but it does read like it was written by a superstitious person. Not a scientist.


And yes, as everyone suspected, the usage of Occam's Razor is fallacious and incorrect.
Not all information on the involvement of microwaves in the creation of crop circles comes from such a dubious source. The article linked below discusses an article on this topic, which appeared in Physics World. There still seems to be some reasonable doubts about human proficiency with microwaves, so as to be able to create crop circles.  Link: http://www.huffingto...o_b_929152.html


#69    Sir Wearer of Hats

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:29 PM

View Postlaver, on 10 January 2013 - 01:05 AM, said:

Indeed, there are some interesting accounts of orbs sometimes being connected to crop design creation
"orbs"?
Orbs are motes of dust caught in the flash of a camera.


#70    psyche101

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 05:14 AM

View Postbison, on 10 January 2013 - 07:41 PM, said:

Not all information on the involvement of microwaves in the creation of crop circles comes from such a dubious source. The article linked below discusses an article on this topic, which appeared in Physics World. There still seems to be some reasonable doubts about human proficiency with microwaves, so as to be able to create crop circles.  Link: http://www.huffingto...o_b_929152.html

So there is several dubious sources associated with this claim? The Huffington Post article references and links to the BLT Research page as "evidence"

Quote

Colin says some of the conclusions of BLT's  researcher William Levengood are plain wrong and the
group should admit the mistake.

He claims to have filmed proof that circle plants Levengood said showed good evidence of the genuine
"crop circle making energy" were in fact from a fake circle made by Nancy's own plant samplers.

Nancy sparked the dispute in a piece she wrote for the Report a Crop Circle Facebook page responding
to questions about published papers by her BLT group.

She suggested "No reputable professional scientist would challenge already published work without
having carried out research replicating the research they are challenging"

She adds: "And if some of the lay-people involved in the crop circle situation are themselves raising
questions about the scientific work, such questions are basically insignificant...precisely because these
lay-people do not have the academic or scientific training needed to correctly understand what the
published material actual says."

But weighing in with his own statement headed: "BLT got it wrong and should admit it and move on", Colin
argues: "It does not always necessitate replication of a finding to prove the scientist is heading
down the wrong road".

He claims he filmed Nancy's crop circle samplers making a crop circle, sending samples to her from it and
then finally viewing Levengood's findings back to them.

Writes Colin: "Mr. Levengood concluded that the plants from this circle were among the best examples of
the real phenomenon and showed the highest crop circle making energy.  But the team and I knew
differently.  Whatever the science and protocols, whatever his findings, the plants came from a man made
crop circle. The results showed whatever they showed but the interpretation
was wrong".


LINK

What do you expect from the Bacon Lettuce Tomato Institute LOL.

Posted Image

Edited by psyche101, 11 January 2013 - 05:20 AM.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#71    psyche101

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 05:19 AM

View PostWearer of Hats, on 10 January 2013 - 10:29 PM, said:

"orbs"?
Orbs are motes of dust caught in the flash of a camera.



Alien dust motes mate. ;)

View Postlaver, on 10 January 2013 - 09:41 AM, said:

The ovality of crop circles is interesting and brings to mind the shape of ancient stone circles which are often not true circles at all. Much research has been done on this notably by Professor Thom and his son over many years who propose an ancient knowledge of geometry. Although initially discounted this seems now to be being given much more serious consideration. The proximity of many crop designs to ancient locations on the landscape and having a focal point in Wiltshire with its many ancient sites is worthy of consideration. The interference with electronic devices is a strange fact but might be another way of drawing our attention to these phenomena

Ovality? I thought the majority were quite circular.

Posted Image

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#72    bison

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 03:36 PM

View Postpsyche101, on 11 January 2013 - 05:19 AM, said:

Alien dust motes mate. ;)



Ovality? I thought the majority were quite circular.

Posted Image
  The circular-appearing parts of many crop circle formations are substantially oval or elliptical. This is generally not apparent to casual inspection of photographs, but careful measurements have shown this again and again. The degree of departure from circularity is often greater than would be expected, given the otherwise high level of precision in some formations.


#73    bison

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 05:17 PM

View Postpsyche101, on 11 January 2013 - 05:14 AM, said:

So there is several dubious sources associated with this claim? The Huffington Post article references and links to the BLT Research page as "evidence"




LINK

What do you expect from the Bacon Lettuce Tomato Institute LOL.

Posted Image
  So some people knowingly created and submitted fraudulent evidence, allowing it to be believed that it was from a phenomenon with an unknown cause.  I wouldn't expect BLT research to be infallible in their determinations. This is on the cutting edge of science. The best scientific minds have been taken in by hoaxes at times. The Piltdown man hoax is a good example of this. Shall we dismiss anthropologists and paleontologists as mad scientists, too?


#74    JesseCuster

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 08:53 PM

View Postbison, on 11 January 2013 - 03:36 PM, said:

The circular-appearing parts of many crop circle formations are substantially oval or elliptical. This is generally not apparent to casual inspection of photographs, but careful measurements have shown this again and again. The degree of departure from circularity is often greater than would be expected, given the otherwise high level of precision in some formations.
How can something be "substantially oval or elliptical" but "not apparent to casual inspection of photographs" and requires "careful measurements"?

If it requires careful measurements to determine that something is in fact elliptical and not perfectly circular then the eccentricity is obviously very close to zero and thus it can't be "substantially elliptical".  If something is slightly off from circular wouldn't you just put that down to imperfection by the circle makers?

Also, do you have a source for that "many crop circle formation are substantially oval or elliptical"?

Anyway, if you remember your high school maths, it's not much harder to draw an ellipse than it is a circle.  An ellipse requires 2 sticks (and an extra person for a crop circle) to mark the foci whereas a circle only needs one to mark the center.  After that you need a piece of string (rope) and a pencil (board for smashing).

Edited by Archimedes, 11 January 2013 - 08:54 PM.

"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard P. Feynman

#75    bison

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 10:52 PM

View PostArchimedes, on 11 January 2013 - 08:53 PM, said:

How can something be "substantially oval or elliptical" but "not apparent to casual inspection of photographs" and requires "careful measurements"?

If it requires careful measurements to determine that something is in fact elliptical and not perfectly circular then the eccentricity is obviously very close to zero and thus it can't be "substantially elliptical".  If something is slightly off from circular wouldn't you just put that down to imperfection by the circle makers?

Also, do you have a source for that "many crop circle formation are substantially oval or elliptical"?

Anyway, if you remember your high school maths, it's not much harder to draw an ellipse than it is a circle.  An ellipse requires 2 sticks (and an extra person for a crop circle) to mark the foci whereas a circle only needs one to mark the center.  After that you need a piece of string (rope) and a pencil (board for smashing).
    Where does slight leave off and substantial begin?  A judgement call, I suppose. If you prefer slight, please substitute that for substantial.  Also a matter a of  judgement about how much ellipticity can be ascribed to error in a formation with a certain level of precision.  I have no one source for what I said about the ellipticity of many crop circles. It comes from studying the measured diagrams of quite a few.  I realize that drawing an ellipse is not particularly difficult. I am not aware of any indications that this was done intentionally by human crop circle makers. As the departure from round is not readily apparent, their reason for doing so escapes me.





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