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Global warming at a standstill


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#91    Br Cornelius

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 11:53 PM

View PostLittle Fish, on 11 January 2013 - 10:34 PM, said:

you claim precipitation is crunched into smaller periods of the year leading to more droughts and floods, and this is hidden in the global precipitation data which remains static.

...but this would mean there are more droughts globally, but global droughts show no change:

"Little change in global drought over the past 60 years, November 2012

...we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation7 that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles8 that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years"
http://www.nature.co...ature11575.html

and the IPCC draft 2013 on global floods and global droughts:

"low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale"

"there is currently no clear and widespread evidence for observed changes in flooding”

"The current assessment does not support the AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in droughts"
My statement was very specific to the UK. i have not studied in any detail trends in other areas.
I claimed only that this happened this year and in Britain, and so it masked the extreme precipitation events this year in Britain.

Similar things are happening across Europe however.

As I have abundantly demonstrated (with peer reviewed papers) - there are increasing trends in extreme precipitation events in regions across the globe.

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#92    regeneratia

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:18 AM

View PostHasina, on 11 January 2013 - 10:36 PM, said:

From your first link:

Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. "If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal." This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years.

And your second link has nothing to do with global warming or climate change.

I guess you are not thinking deep enough. I am of the opinion that the earth is influenced not just by the sun but by cosmic radiation coming from deep space AND the galactic center. If you look at it from that angle, it does indeed apply. With superficial glance, I am sure that it doesn't appear to apply. The earth is not just traveling around the sun. Our galaxy is traveling about the universe. Our apogees and perigees apply to the warming issue. You cannot ignore the cosmological aspects to this warming period. It is my understanding that the entire solar system is warming, not just the earth.It is easier to sit on the fence regarding this issue. But I cannot accept the anthropogenic cause of warming. The idea that people are causing global warming is just a viral memetic infection that has been handed to the gullible. "Viral memetic infection" is a term I borrowed from someone else. I didn't coin that magnificent phrase.

Edited by regeneratia, 12 January 2013 - 12:28 AM.

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#93    Hasina

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:23 AM

View Postregeneratia, on 12 January 2013 - 12:18 AM, said:



I guess you are not thinking deep enough. I am of the opinion that the earth is influenced not just by the sun but by cosmic radiation coming from deep space AND the galactic center. If you look at it from that angle, it does indeed apply. With superficial glance, I am sure that it doesn't appear to apply. The earth is not just traveling around the sun. Our galaxy is traveling about the universe. Our apogees and perigees apply to the warming issue. You cannot ignore the cosmological aspects to this warming period. It is my understanding that the entire solar system is warming, not just the earth.It is easier to sit on the fence regarding this issue. But I cannot accept the anthropogenic cause of warming. It is just a viral memetic infection that has been handed to the gullible. That is a term I borrowed from someone else. I didn't coin that magnificent phrase.
Got it, you're pretty much making it up while data shows that humans are behind global warming and climate change.

Refute the data, don't just make things up OR prove your data actually correlates with your conclusion, but if you see; it doesn't, your own link says so.

Edited by Hasina, 12 January 2013 - 12:24 AM.

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#94    regeneratia

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:30 AM

View PostHasina, on 12 January 2013 - 12:23 AM, said:

Got it, you're pretty much making it up while data shows that humans are behind global warming and climate change.

Refute the data, don't just make things up OR prove your data actually correlates with your conclusion, but if you see; it doesn't, your own link says so.

Actually, Susan Joy Rennison is the woman who got me to thinking about it. But if you feel much better thinking I made it up, it's not a problem with me. I am not in control of what you think, nor do I want to be. And I don't care what you think of me. I am personally empowered and armed with a questing mind. The fact that you have little respect for my opinion is not my probkem. I suspect it might be yours.

Edited by regeneratia, 12 January 2013 - 12:31 AM.

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#95    Hasina

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:32 AM

View Postregeneratia, on 12 January 2013 - 12:30 AM, said:

Actually, Susan Joy Rennison is the woman who got me to thinking about it. But if you feel much better thinking I made it up, it's not a problem with me. I am not in control of what you think, nor do I want to be. And I don't care what you think of me. I am personally empowered and armed with a questing mind. The fact that you have little respect for my opinion is not my probkem. I suspect it might be yours.
I was asking for proof or data of your conclusion. The link you've provided doesn't have any.

Edit: I have respect for data and proof, not opinion.

Edited by Hasina, 12 January 2013 - 12:35 AM.

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#96    regeneratia

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:35 AM

View PostHasina, on 12 January 2013 - 12:23 AM, said:

Got it, you're pretty much making it up while data shows that humans are behind global warming and climate change.

Refute the data, don't just make things up OR prove your data actually correlates with your conclusion, but if you see; it doesn't, your own link says so.

You know, there is no data that shows that humans created global warming. I can't find any anywhere. And when I ask for it, no one gives it to me, if it doesn't come from that place the is pushing the viral memtic infection of anthropogenic global warming and their leaked emails.

View PostHasina, on 12 January 2013 - 12:32 AM, said:

I was asking for proof or data of your conclusion. The link you've provided doesn't have any.

It was already provided. If you would just read the links.I am going to go now. Your discussion style is not to my liking. Have the last word. You are welcome to it.

Edited by regeneratia, 12 January 2013 - 12:36 AM.

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#97    Hasina

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:35 AM

View Postregeneratia, on 12 January 2013 - 12:35 AM, said:

You know, there is no data that shows that humans created global warming. I can't find any anywhere. And when I ask for it, no one gives it to me, if it doesn't come from that place the is pushing the viral memtic infection of anthropogenic global warming and their leaked emails.



It was already provided. If you would just read the links.
So you've read all of BR's links?

Care to explain this: Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. “If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal.” This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years.

From the first link you've provided.

In recent years, researchers have considered the possibility that the sun plays a role in global warming. After all, the sun is the main source of heat for our planet. The NRC report suggests, however, that the influence of solar variability is more regional than global. The Pacific region is only one example.

As is that.

And digging any deeper, the paper suggests we should be cooling rather then warming if the sun was causing it.

Much has been made of the probable connection between the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year deficit of sunspots in the late 17th-early 18th century, and the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. The mechanism for that regional cooling could have been a drop in the sun’s EUV output; this is, however, speculative.

ndeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. (Note: Penn and Livingston were not participants at the NRC workshop.)

It's not to your liking because I'm asking you to explain yourself, your point and why your link doesn't match up with what you're saying it 'proves'.

Edited by Hasina, 12 January 2013 - 12:46 AM.

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#98    regeneratia

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:45 AM

View PostHasina, on 12 January 2013 - 12:35 AM, said:

So you've read all of BR's links?

Care to explain this: Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. "If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal." This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years.

From the first link you've provided.'

It's not to your liking because I'm asking you to explain yourself, your point and why your link doesn't match up with what you're saying it 'proves'.

Who is BR? Was I supposed to read his links? And why should I?Perhaps you can give me a link to them?It appears that the milky way likes to eat? Having all those extra suns, from the newly found starbursts, and from the consumption of little star systems, might indeed warm this solar system a bit. http://www.redorbit....m-102712/What I am not willing to do is abstract all that may apply into one pushed-on-us idea of why something is the way it is, while eliminating all extremely important, perhaps essential, variables in a situation. Are you willing to do that?Hades, this editing thing is challenging tonight. Here is the real link: http://www.redorbit....-stream-102712/

Edited by regeneratia, 12 January 2013 - 12:46 AM.

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#99    Hasina

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:51 AM

View Postregeneratia, on 12 January 2013 - 12:45 AM, said:

Who is BR? Was I supposed to read his links? And why should I?Perhaps you can give me a link to them?It appears that the milky way likes to eat? Having all those extra suns, from the newly found starbursts, and from the consumption of little star systems, might indeed warm this solar system a bit. http://www.redorbit....102712/  What I am not willing to do is abstract all that may apply into one pushed-on-us idea of why something is the way it is, while eliminating all extremely important, perhaps essential, variables in a situation. Are you willing to do that?Hades, this editing thing is challenging tonight. Here is the real link: http://www.redorbit....-stream-102712/
I see. I see. I understand your point now. Saying that a lot of stars being out there must warm up the solar system, understood.

Posted Image
Figure 1: Global temperature (red, NASA GISS) and Total solar irradiance (blue, 1880 to 1978 from Solanki, 1979 to 2009 from PMOD).

Posted Image
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.

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#100    regeneratia

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:57 AM

I agree with the general circulation thing. It has rained here for two days, while it should snowing, meaning that there is an unusual circulation event happening, according to the weather channel. As for that applying to my introduction of a few links, not sure I see how you are trying to apply it. Seems unrelated to the links.

In replying to the regional rather than global:
http://www.redorbit....t-earth-011013/
"Of particular importance is the sun's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which peaks during the years around solar maximum. Within the relatively narrow band of EUV wavelengths, the sun's output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere."

That final quote is very interesting. where is the link to that.

I am not saying my links PROVE anything. I am saying that there are important variables left out of the anthropogenic global warming issue, and they shouldn't be left out. Since we have put more solar and cosmic science into to space recently, there will be even more variables that influence the global warming issue. Sitting on the fence at this point in the warming issue is the best place to be. Governments think so, which is why the Kyotos have failed for the last decade.

Edited by regeneratia, 12 January 2013 - 12:58 AM.

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#101    Hasina

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:59 AM

View Postregeneratia, on 12 January 2013 - 12:57 AM, said:

I agree with the general circulation thing. It has rained here for two days, while it should snowing, meaning that there is an unusual circulation event happening, according to the weather channel. As for that applying to my introduction of a few links, not sure I see how you are trying to apply it. Seems unrelated to the links.

In replying to the regional rather than global:
http://www.redorbit....t-earth-011013/
"Of particular importance is the sun's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which peaks during the years around solar maximum. Within the relatively narrow band of EUV wavelengths, the sun's output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere."

That final quote is very interesting. where is the link to that.

I am not saying my links PROVE anything. I am saying that there are important variables left out of the anthropogenic global warming issue, and they shouldn't be left out. Since we have put more solar and cosmic science into to space recently, there will be even more variables that influence the global warming issue. Sitting on the fence at this point in the warming issue is the best place to be. Governments think so, which is why the Kyotos have failed for the last decade.
The graphs above your post concern your points.

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#102    regeneratia

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 01:03 AM

View PostHasina, on 12 January 2013 - 12:59 AM, said:

The graphs above your post concern your points.

Yes, but i would rather see it issued as a link. I am going to go live the real life for a while. You are a delight, needless to say. thank you for your time.

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#103    Hasina

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 01:05 AM

View Postregeneratia, on 12 January 2013 - 01:03 AM, said:



Yes, but i would rather see it issued as a link. I am going to go live the real life for a while. You are a delight, needless to say. thank you for your time.
Click any of the blue lettering underneath the graphs.


#104    Abramelin

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 07:48 AM

View PostHasina, on 10 January 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

Not to be 'that guy' but since we're a natural species of Earth, technically anything we do is natural. Just cause it's not beneficial to everything doesn't mean it's not natural. Systems go out of balance all the time, sometimes because of the continents moving, sometimes because of an animal species. It's natural, even if we are causing it.

You say it exactly as I always tell others !

Anything we do or cause is natural because we are part of nature. No one will consider a termite hill to be an unnatural thing, but they do consider a skyscraper to be unnatural.


#105    Abramelin

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 07:56 AM

View PostHasina, on 10 January 2013 - 07:22 PM, said:

BR actually did say that, lol.

Br Cornelius actually said one caused the other. That's not the same.





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