21 replies to this topic

[Waspie_Dwarf]

dan-paul-mark, on 11 January 2013 - 12:16 AM, said:

i heard that the solar systems orbit fluctuates up and down, and the last time we were at the point we're heading towards soon; which is a large asteroid belt, was when the dinosaurs were wiped by the collision. anyone no if this is true?

To be honest I'm not really sure what you mean,  your question seems to me to be a confused conglomerate of ideas.
If by the "solar system's orbit fluctuating up and down" you mean does it move within the galaxy, yes it does, but there is no asteroid belt that it is travelling towards.

[Merc14]

Waspie_Dwarf, on 10 January 2013 - 10:05 PM, said:

The change in orbit can be calculated in advance IF the distance that the asteroid will pass Earth in 2029 is known with enough accuracy. That calculation has now been made and an impact in 2039 ruled out (see THIS THREAD).


Totally wrong. We've been able to calculate orbits with extraordinary accuracy since the days of Kepler and Newton. The only reason there was doubt about the possibility of an an impact in 2036 was because the orbit was not known with sufficient accuracy. Now that the orbit has been refined the uncertainty can be reduced to the point where an impact in 2036 can be ruled out.


Fortunately scientists rely on mathematics, observations, evidence and cold hard facts not guess work and "bad feelings" and Star Wars.

Is your profession in this field?  Regardless I appreciate the easily understood answers to the arcane questions most of us have when dealing with the study
of the universe.

Edited by Merc14, 11 January 2013 - 01:14 AM.

[dan-paul-mark]

Waspie_Dwarf, on 11 January 2013 - 12:21 AM, said:

To be honest I'm not really sure what you mean,  your question seems to me to be a confused conglomerate of ideas.
If by the "solar system's orbit fluctuating up and down" you mean does it move within the galaxy, yes it does, but there is no asteroid belt that it is travelling towards.

haha fair enough just something i'd heard. seemed unlikely as you'd expect to have heard more about it if it were true

[coolguy]

Is this the one we can see with the naked eye. We can get hit again some day

[Merc14]

coolguy, on 11 January 2013 - 04:51 AM, said:

Is this the one we can see with the naked eye. We can get hit again some day

This planet will absolutely be hit by another asteroid in the next 7 billion years the sun exists.  Well, 4B before it starts expanding and sterilizes this rock.  WD can correct the numbers  but we will be hit and if we can't advance to the stage where we can stop it, then we will cease to exist as a species.  It probably won't happen in your lifetime bt it mihght.  Regardless, worrying about dying from weird things like asteroid strikes is  making yourself dead already.  Yes, 99% certainty the earth will be hit again but we will either have figured out the engineering to move the thing or wiped ourselves out in the interim.

[redbundy]

When (what time) and where (will it be visable all over the planet or just from a certain country or continent) will this be taking place? I'd like to try and see it. Does anybody know?

Edited by redbundy, 11 January 2013 - 10:28 AM.

[stevewinn]

Waspie_Dwarf, on 10 January 2013 - 10:05 PM, said:

The change in orbit can be calculated in advance IF the distance that the asteroid will pass Earth in 2029 is known with enough accuracy. That calculation has now been made and an impact in 2039 ruled out (see THIS THREAD).


Totally wrong. We've been able to calculate orbits with extraordinary accuracy since the days of Kepler and Newton. The only reason there was doubt about the possibility of an an impact in 2036 was because the orbit was not known with sufficient accuracy. Now that the orbit has been refined the uncertainty can be reduced to the point where an impact in 2036 can be ruled out.


Fortunately scientists rely on mathematics, observations, evidence and cold hard facts not guess work and "bad feelings" and Star Wars.

Thanks for the reply mate, glad you cottoned onto the star wars phrase.