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Michael Shermer debunked by Astrologer


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#1    markdohle

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 01:23 PM




#2    eight bits

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 02:08 PM

Was that the entire segment, Mark?

In what we see, Shermer's producer played it straight, showing that the astrologer exceeded expectations. I was surprised though, that Shermer would willingly give the astrologer the last word, then cut to black.

Using my own hamster intuition that there was probably more to the story, I looked for a statement by Shermer about the incident. I found something attributed to him here,

http://marcalandimar...r-vs-armstrong/

It appears that Shermer wasn't the producer of the show, just the "on air talent" and expert consultant. The protocol he proposed was not carried out. How much weight the partial experiment deserves is hard to say.

Obviously, I cannot speak for Shermer. My own personal reservations (apart from the above, based on that statement attributed to Shermer):

The "switch" was not double blind and the sample size is 2. I notice that when later primed to evaluate "their own" actual reading, the two "switched" subjects gave the highest "accuracy" ratings of any two readings.

If the criterion of success is a subject's agreement with proposed self-descriptions, and the statements offered for agreement include things like "The subject is handsome, well-groomed, whose company is much sought after..." Well, there's three hits right there.

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#3    freetoroam

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 02:54 PM

i must say I  have had my doubts before, but wow, this guy is impressive...or rather, the astrology readings are.

In an ideal World a law would be passed were NO guns were allowed and all those out there destroyed, trouble is the law makers are not going to take a risk of trying to pass that without making sure they are armed first.

#4    Simbi Laveau

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 06:22 PM

Astrology is actually a science ,which involves mathematics ,and planetary influences . It's not like someone holding your hand and saying,I see the letter L name...Larry ,Lenny ...blah blah .
It's very different in reality ,which peop le do not always realize ...
And I'm realizing i owe a thread a reading......oh my slothful ways....

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#5    Rlyeh

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 06:32 PM

View PostSimbi Laveau, on 19 January 2013 - 06:22 PM, said:

Astrology is actually a science ,which involves mathematics ,and planetary influences .
When and where does astrology employ the scientific method?


#6    Paracelse

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 06:57 PM

View PostRlyeh, on 19 January 2013 - 06:32 PM, said:

When and where does astrology employ the scientific method?

Heu you should study ancient religions... unfortunately neither the Summerians, the Egyptians nor the Druids  have left much detail of their way of work but fortunately the Chinese did.  So read re-read and re-re-read.

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#7    Simbi Laveau

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 07:06 PM

View PostRlyeh, on 19 January 2013 - 06:32 PM, said:

When and where does astrology employ the scientific method?

Hey,if you're the expert ,and you don't know ....how can you ask anyone else that .

Its done with computers now ,but it used to be done with an astrolabe and ephemeris ,all of which is ALL MATHEMATICS and TRUE planetary positions in the sky
Math and planetary position are both  non existent sciences...SCIENCES , to be debunked now ? Lots of luck .


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#8    Rlyeh

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 07:18 PM

View PostParacelse, on 19 January 2013 - 06:57 PM, said:

Heu you should study ancient religions... unfortunately neither the Summerians, the Egyptians nor the Druids  have left much detail of their way of work but fortunately the Chinese did.  So read re-read and re-re-read.
Hey, go look up the meaning of science sometime. Or better yet, learn english.

Edited by Rlyeh, 19 January 2013 - 07:26 PM.


#9    Rlyeh

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 07:23 PM

View PostSimbi Laveau, on 19 January 2013 - 07:06 PM, said:

Hey,if you're the expert ,and you don't know ....how can you ask anyone else that .
So you can't answer it? As someone who practices pseudoscience and quackery, I thought you'd have a better idea.

Quote

Its done with computers now ,but it used to be done with an astrolabe and ephemeris ,all of which is ALL MATHEMATICS and TRUE planetary positions in the sky
Math and planetary position are both  non existent sciences...SCIENCES , to be debunked now ? Lots of luck .
Creationism uses mathematics, it must be science!!

You realise using science doesn't make the conclusion scientific.

Edited by Rlyeh, 19 January 2013 - 07:31 PM.


#10    markdohle

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 10:53 PM

View Posteight bits, on 19 January 2013 - 02:08 PM, said:

Was that the entire segment, Mark?

In what we see, Shermer's producer played it straight, showing that the astrologer exceeded expectations. I was surprised though, that Shermer would willingly give the astrologer the last word, then cut to black.

Using my own hamster intuition that there was probably more to the story, I looked for a statement by Shermer about the incident. I found something attributed to him here,

http://marcalandimar...r-vs-armstrong/

It appears that Shermer wasn't the producer of the show, just the "on air talent" and expert consultant. The protocol he proposed was not carried out. How much weight the partial experiment deserves is hard to say.

Obviously, I cannot speak for Shermer. My own personal reservations (apart from the above, based on that statement attributed to Shermer):

The "switch" was not double blind and the sample size is 2. I notice that when later primed to evaluate "their own" actual reading, the two "switched" subjects gave the highest "accuracy" ratings of any two readings.

If the criterion of success is a subject's agreement with proposed self-descriptions, and the statements offered for agreement include things like "The subject is handsome, well-groomed, whose company is much sought after..." Well, there's three hits right there.

I was just surprised at how Shermer responded during the whole event, which is the real reason I posted it.  My respect for him has gone up.  Skeptics can be like believers, only letting in what they already believe what is true and ignoring the rest...he did show very good restraint in is reactions.

peace
Mark

View Postfreetoroam, on 19 January 2013 - 02:54 PM, said:

i must say I  have had my doubts before, but wow, this guy is impressive...or rather, the astrology readings are.

Yes, if real, it was very impressive.

peace
mark


#11    Paracelse

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 06:55 AM

View PostRlyeh, on 19 January 2013 - 07:18 PM, said:

Hey, go look up the meaning of science sometime. Or better yet, learn english.
Why?  You need lessons?

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République No.6
It's time for a sixth republic.

#12    Rlyeh

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 07:05 AM

View PostParacelse, on 20 January 2013 - 06:55 AM, said:

Why?  You need lessons?
No, you do.


#13    eight bits

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 10:35 AM

Quote

I was just surprised at how Shermer responded during the whole event, which is the real reason I posted it.  My respect for him has gone up.  Skeptics can be like believers, only letting in what they already believe what is true and ignoring the rest...he did show very good restraint in is reactions.

peace
Mark

That's nice that you think more highly of him now, it really is. And thank you for the like, too. But the title of your thread is "Michael Shermer debunked..."

Debunked? Shermer openly advocates an opinion, and in whatever of his I've read, he has always included a discussion of the evidence upon which his opinion rests. In this case, he helps somebody else, the producer of that show, to present facts contrary to Shermer's own opinion.

Shermer's not a bunco artist in the first place; how can he be debunked?

(I know, it's the Youtuber's title originally, but you aren't stuck with that when you link to it for discussion here. My issue is not "skeptic versus believer," but fairness to a specific person who has been called out by name.)

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#14    Paracelse

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 12:25 PM

View PostRlyeh, on 20 January 2013 - 07:05 AM, said:

No, you do.
Sorry dude but I don't speak Aussie.

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République No.6
It's time for a sixth republic.

#15    Rlyeh

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 01:22 PM

View PostParacelse, on 20 January 2013 - 12:25 PM, said:

Sorry dude but I don't speak Aussie.
If you don't understand "When and where does astrology employ the scientific method?", you've got more problems than just speaking aussie.





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