Chrlzs, on 04 February 2013 - 10:44 PM, said:
It may be more 'nuanced', but it also ignores Occam's Razor and adds a whole pile of other questions.. WHY don't they wish to? Why are they so bad at it, getting 'glimpsed' (in a way that is always not-quite 'proof') all the time? Are they also deliberately teasing us? And why are aliens more feasible than say, interdimensional beings or time travelers (or faeries)?
I don't see any problem in suggesting that if you look at ALL the other reasons why 'they' might be incredibly rare, then add that to the incredibly difficult (if insurmountable) problems of distance and simple timing (Ooops, we visited in the wrong billion years...) then the observed 'no show' is hardly surprising and doesn't really require inventing obscure motives.
Further, if they are 'hiding', is there much point in speculating until they come out of the closet..?
Occam's razor is useful in judging the probable merit of different explanations of a given natural phenomenon. Since Intelligent life may not reliably choose the simplest or most straightforward course of action, its usefulness in this case is in some doubt.
It is perfectly reasonable that some other species could be observing us, and so might wish to limit its own influence on our behavior. They are obviously not simply hiding. If they are currently observing our reaction to *hints* of their presence, they would presumably not wish to be known to exist in an obvious, unambiguous way. This sort of gradual introduction of themselves has precedent in our own primate research.
The existence of interdimensional beings would require us to assume the existence of alternate spatial dimensions that they could occupy, and also to assume that they could move from their own dimensions to ours. That seem a needless complication of physics, when we already have a scientific basis for allowing our own universe to be inhabited.
Time travel also requires a good deal of undemonstrated new physics to avoid the problem of creating paradoxes. Faeries seem a mixed lot. They could be written off as survivals in the mind of man of ancient nature deities. They could, in some cases, also conceivably represent extraterrestrial encounters interpreted within a rural, pre-space age milieu.
Just as there was once a tendency to see the Earth as occupying a unique and central position in the universe, there is a modern tendency in some to think intelligent life exceptionally rare, or even unique to this planet. Every time in the past we have thought ourselves extraordinary, we've seen our ideas refuted, eventually.
A civilization that had managed to establish itself throughout the galaxy long, long ago, would probably prove to be very durable, and long lived, as a whole. They would be essentially immune to any local catastrophe like a supernova, or a terminally expanding star of lesser mass. I see no reason why they wouldn't be here to greet us, when they felt the time was ripe.