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The Stock Market


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#1    ohio_traveler

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 08:35 PM

With the stock market back up to a surprisingly and actually unexplainable high level, and a possible HUGE correction downward looming, I wonder if now would be a good time to take what I've got and finally get out ?   I know that UM is probably not the best place to get investment advice. But I do like hearing opinions from everyone I know and if they've got the same feeling.

I just got this eerie feeling that the bottom is about to drop out.


#2    OverSword

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 08:53 PM

Look at the great depression Clyde.  The very rich got very richer the somewhat rich and everyone else got screwed.  History repeats.  Get out.  You may be better off cashing in 401k in for lottery tickets than losing it all in the market in the next 10 years.


#3    The Silver Thong

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 09:04 PM

The fed's have been pumping billions out for awhile and the high stock market is a absalutly inflated. There will be a huge correction to come. Not sure what to suggest Clyde. I'm thinking about investing in 3d printer technology myself.

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#4    Corp

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 09:08 PM

View PostClyde the Glyde, on 06 March 2013 - 08:35 PM, said:

With the stock market back up to a surprisingly and actually unexplainable high level, and a possible HUGE correction downward looming, I wonder if now would be a good time to take what I've got and finally get out ?   I know that UM is probably not the best place to get investment advice. But I do like hearing opinions from everyone I know and if they've got the same feeling.

I just got this eerie feeling that the bottom is about to drop out.

The various "civilization will end in months" threads over the years would agree with that statement. :P I swear some people seem to be looking forward to an economic collapse...


Anyway I'd sell some stuff right now for the simple reason that stocks are worth a far bit at the moment. Gives you a good profit, though I'm not sure if you need to sell everything. Given how high stocks are right now it's completely reasonable for things to drop as people sell off their stocks. That's just how the stock market works but I doubt we'll be entering hobo territory. Plus some stocks tend to be more stable than others from my understanding.

Edited by Corp, 06 March 2013 - 09:11 PM.

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#5    Jeremiah65

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 09:12 PM

I am not an investor so I am no one to give advice.  I have only recently been watching the DJIA with regularity because in the past, I could use it as a somewhat indicator for the construction markets.  When corporate profits are up, the corporations tend to build new offices, manufacturing and research facilities.  In the years I have observed the DJIA, when it was good, "they" were spending the money.  Things were getting built, folks had jobs and that all trickled into a fairly stable general economy...this time has been oddly different.  I can only guess as to why that is.

The DJIA is at an all time high and the economy is still stagnant.  Construction is still down and unemployment still sits officially at 7.9% (though most of us know that number is bullsh!t).

There is lots of talk about a correction coming if not a full on collapse from all the electronic dollars propping it up.  The big boys are dropping millions of stocks...my guess is to get stable assetts...wait for the correction...and when all the average and amateur "retirement" investors get screwed again (and lose what little they had left from the last time)...the big boys will swoop in and buy up the remnants and ruins for pennies on the dollar and be one step closer to owning it all.

Just my very uneducated opinion though.

Edited by Jeremiah65, 06 March 2013 - 09:13 PM.

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#6    mysticwerewolf

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 09:55 PM

many years ago  I HAD a retirement account.  and when i started it i told the  people who helped me start it  NO stocks!  what goes up will come down. But  they kept trying to get me to take stocks  i said NO repeatedly so eventually they lied to me and said well this isn't  stocks... blah blah blah ) so i said ok. (turned out the the company was selling me their own stocks and the interest was in their own stocks as well) i lost 77% of what i had in 6 to 8  weeks.  granted i was not and am not rich but 15 years of savings were gone in just weeks. I was lucky in that when i was real young( 35+ years ago) i bought a bunch of silver ingots at the local coin store and was able to sell them and pay off my debts.   I personally will not  ever knowingly get into the stock market.  and my UNexpert advice is  Unless you have the means to be ableand willing  to loose everything you have in stocks Don't Buy Stocks.  what goes up must eventually come down and the higher it goes the harder it will hit when it falls.
  and before you think i am suggesting gold or silver  they are both still to high to make a profit on  they too will fall again soon.

Edited by mysticwerewolf, 06 March 2013 - 10:18 PM.


#7    hacktorp

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 10:11 PM

Well...when US corporate executives are quietly selling more of their own company shares than they are buying (at a 50 to 1 ratio), one has to wonder what their OWN assessment of the future of the stock market really is:

http://www.zerohedge...s-new-recession

The market rally is a fragile bubble being blown by Ben Bernanke and the Fed.  Plan accordingly.

Edited by hacktorp, 06 March 2013 - 10:16 PM.


#8    Orcseeker

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 12:00 AM

Just aim for short term investments. Or even if you are afraid, make investments that will probably survive the next crash and when the market recovers the share prices will balance out again.


#9    ohio_traveler

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 12:55 PM

View PostThe Silver Thong, on 06 March 2013 - 09:04 PM, said:

The fed's have been pumping billions out for awhile and the high stock market is a absalutly inflated. There will be a huge correction to come. Not sure what to suggest Clyde. I'm thinking about investing in 3d printer technology myself.

That is exactly what I fear. I don't have much in there to begin with, but I sure don't want it to drop to pennies. I'm starting to move my earnings out of stocks and into more of a stable value option. Sure it will earn less, but I'll be able to sleep better.

And 3d printer technology ??  Wow ! Amazing stuff for sure.

* Thanks for everyone's opinions, advice, and personal stories.

Sorry to hear about your loss's MysticWerewolf.


#10    Yamato

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:46 PM

View PostThe Silver Thong, on 06 March 2013 - 09:04 PM, said:

The fed's have been pumping billions out for awhile and the high stock market is a absalutly inflated. There will be a huge correction to come. Not sure what to suggest Clyde. I'm thinking about investing in 3d printer technology myself.
I'm watching DDD, SYSS and XONE myself.   First I checked China to see if there was any way to invest in the technology over there, but they're still studying it in their universities.  The US has the jump on it, although like everything else manufacturing, we eventually lose our lunch to Asia.

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#11    Yamato

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 06:19 PM

View PostClyde the Glyde, on 07 March 2013 - 12:55 PM, said:

That is exactly what I fear. I don't have much in there to begin with, but I sure don't want it to drop to pennies. I'm starting to move my earnings out of stocks and into more of a stable value option. Sure it will earn less, but I'll be able to sleep better.

And 3d printer technology ??  Wow ! Amazing stuff for sure.

* Thanks for everyone's opinions, advice, and personal stories.

Sorry to hear about your loss's MysticWerewolf.

If you're scared of the stock market, in a word, diversify.   Put a bit into currencies, put a bit into commodities, put a bit into cash, put a bit into bonds.

The best non-equity idea which is as bulletproof as anything else I've found are ultra-short-term bond funds:
http://www.thestreet...h-yielders.html
http://www.investmen.../FREE/110709955

So basically this is an investment for chickens, an enhanced cash strategy when just plain cash is a money losing proposition, thanks to money markets 0% interest and inflation of 2% according to the CPI.    David Sherman looks for debtors with the cash on hand to pay their debt, and with the shortest maturity periods in the industry, (debt is coming due in a month and you've got the cash to pay it) and with less than perfect credit to pump up the yield.  The average bond fund probably carries debt 5-8 years to maturity, a huge risk if you think the markets are going to tank eventually.   Some are 10 and 20 years, a huge gamble even among the best balance sheets and AAA ratings.   This is a fund that will sit in cash if there isn't anything worth buying safely, as ultra-conservative (ultra-safe) as anything else I've found.  It chooses higher credit risk to boost the yield, but the ultra short terms combined with the management style play a rock solid defense.  The expense ratio is higher than average, but this is a very actively-managed fund.    There are plenty of unmanaged index funds out there with very low expense ratios.  If you think the market is going to crash though, that's the worst place you could be.   This fund will serve two important functions:  keep your money safe while beating inflation

Keeping your money in cash would be a bad idea at this point because money markets are 0% and more like -2 or -3% inflation-adjusted, and depending on what you're buying with it.  If a thief stole 2% of our life savings we'd be running around with our hair on fire.  When it comes out of our purchasing power, everyone recites from the hymnal about how legitimate and important it is.

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#12    preacherman76

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 09:56 AM

View PostCorp, on 06 March 2013 - 09:08 PM, said:

The various "civilization will end in months" threads over the years would agree with that statement. :P I swear some people seem to be looking forward to an economic collapse...


They were right every time. The x factor was our printing press. Who knew they would make a depression into the greatest depression by burying us in this amount of debt? But the chickens are definitly coming home to roost. Including NY and Cali, 11 states now have more people on welfare then they have employed. And over half the jobs that do exist are government jobs that only take from the economy. No one is looking forward to the collapse. But its coming regardless.

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#13    SurgeTechnologies

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 10:14 AM

What is stock market? Oh the fraud market if you are smart dont go in... The few big rollers who are already warring each other will just roll you over... There is so much fraud involved that if you arent a tycoon you dont stand any chance...

Plus this system monetary system is coming to an end because of markets and banks and their stupid thinking...There are so many bubbles in whole economy that i think when one bursts it will just collapse in a cascade. Still waiting for that day... soon ... very soon...

" Technology has exceeded our humanity. "

#14    Br Cornelius

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 10:32 AM

A market system which has evolved towards treating the abstract thing that is money as its central purpose is doomed to fail. Correctly functioning markets are about facilitating real economic activity by moving real surplus from one place to another.
When money becomes the central issue we have the situation where the money supply expands almost infinitely, and yet the productive capacity is still starved of actual resources. We are in a situation where there is a black cloud of derivatives worth more than the whole rest of the economy combined - an incalculable amount of nominal money weighing heavy on the real economy, making real economic activity a poor return on investment. Yet fundamentally those derivatives are valueless but valued in real money. They have destroyed real money and the real economy.
On top of this the Central Banks have been pumping money it the real economy via the banks (who got us here) allowing them to earn money through negative interest whilst hoovering up the real assets of the world at distressed value.

The banks have no interest in running the world for anything other than personal enrichment and yet they have manipulated themselves into a situation where they control all real assets. Its a politically unsustainable situation and when the Chinese economy slows there will be a cascade of social revolution which will change everything. We are siting on a volcano just waiting for it to go off. There is no way to defuse this situation because the banks have the politicians held to ransom with a threat of crashing the economy and the Politicans have no ideas left since Neo-Liberalism displaced all other ideas. What we are witnessing is the buildup to the collapse of a flawed idea (Neo-Liberalism) and a return to a base state where some form of functional system which actually addre3sses the needs of a functional society will emerge. At this stage its impossible to envisage what that might actually look like.

It dizzys the mind just to think how bad things will be in a very short window.

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#15    Yamato

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 10:45 AM

Money is the medium of exchange to move things from one place to another.   You can do away with money and you still have markets.  You'd have trade without medium.   Socialism doesn't cure greed.  Communism doesn't cure envy.   Social democracies don't cure corruption.   We're still going to have ghouls and gremlins in any economic theory, in any economic practice, in any form of government.  History proves the best from the worst, not theoretical op-eds.   These painstaking discussions that involve thrusting our theoretical opinions around as best for the rest of the world don't cure what ails human nature in a fundamental way.  

Capitalism is the worst type of economy, except for all the other types of economies.

Edited by Yamato, 08 March 2013 - 10:46 AM.

"Peace cannot be achieved by force, only by understanding."  ~ Albert Einstein
"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela
"I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.  Your Christians are so unlike your Christ." ~ Mahatma Gandhi




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