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Formulating a wordly change?


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#1    FWTW90

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Posted 07 April 2013 - 03:16 AM

I think this is the right spot to post. But anyways I was doing some research today on global progressions like population, world economy and so forth. Then it came to my mind if anyone has ever made an equation to predict not necessarily the end of the world but maybe a major war, uprising, or a period of great change. In theory I'd think you could possibly see when the world is must vulnerable to some kind of drastic global change from the by product of man. I'm sure you could make an equation or cross graph of some sort that shows variables such as; rate of population, national debt, depletion of resources, possibly the aggressiveness of nations as the years go on, you get my point. Of course natural phenomenon like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and such will occur with time but I'd think that would only speed up the process of some kind of global change. But has this been done before?


#2    HDesiato

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:55 PM

Psychohistory, from  Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" series, was a plot device used in much the way you describe.

Psychohistory, more recently, has been attempted mostly involving the predictable effects of child abuse and neglect in society.
This version is not accepted by the mainstream as a legitamate science.

Have you read any Asimov?
He is the author of "I, Robot", and lots of thought provoking science fiction, as well as the author of many science based non fiction books.

It seems like Sociology and Psychology is the closest things to what you suggest.
Perhaps a workable algorithm will surface someday but the near infinate variables are deffinatally a major barrier to overcome.





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