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Earth Day 1970 Predictions


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#1    Merc14

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 06:07 PM

Here are some of my favorite fun and fact filled predictions from the first Earth Day in 1970.

“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
• Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

Ken was a real superstar back then, sort of like Al Gore today.  He was also an idiot.

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.”
• Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

Denis is an eternal pessimist and is still peddling his BS to fellow travelers.

We are prospecting for the very last of our resources and using up the nonrenewable things many times faster than we are finding new ones.”
• Martin Litton, Sierra Club director

Martin is another Luddite that peddled BS and still does to this day.  Martin ever said no to a dollar.


So when the tenured professors start piling BS upon BS, peer review it and then predict the end of the world is nigh during Earth month, please remember that they have been peddling this claptrap for 4 decades and never got a thing right.  They were absurdly wrong in 1970 yet, no matter how wrong they are or have been, the media still worships at their altar.

See alll 15  here http://www.ihatethem...ictions-of-2009

Edited by Merc14, 22 April 2013 - 06:37 PM.

Nice midterms democrats.  As Pelosi says, "Embrace the suck".

#2    OverSword

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 06:20 PM

:lol:


#3    Ashotep

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 06:31 PM

Boy was he wrong about the ice age.

People are starving in some countries but its more because of their government or war.

I would say we are using up more of our natural resources faster than we can find new deposits.


#4    Merc14

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 06:43 PM

View PostHilander, on 22 April 2013 - 06:31 PM, said:

Boy was he wrong about the ice age.


If we have a few more years of stagnant temperatures or, even worse (for them) decreasing temperatures, they will be screaming new Ice Age and never bat an eye.  I was in middle school back then and was bashed over the head with global cooling ( I lived in Buffalo during thee Blizzard of '77) and new ice age just as forcibly as the kids are bashed over the head with global warming today.  Oops sorry, that name is verboten now, I mean  climate change.

Edited by Merc14, 22 April 2013 - 06:44 PM.

Nice midterms democrats.  As Pelosi says, "Embrace the suck".

#5    OverSword

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 07:33 PM

It's true, we were either going to freeze to death or if not that, then it was totaly inevitable that the UUSR and USA would cause a nuclear winter when both sides launched enough nukes to kill all life on earth 100 times over.


#6    spartan max2

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 07:36 PM

Just like everyone who predicts about the future. Normally wrong. Why? Because the world is far more random and chaotic then people can accept.

" I imagine that the intellegent people are the ones so intellegent that they dont even need or want to look "intellegent" anymore".
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#7    Merc14

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 08:02 PM

View Postspartan max2, on 22 April 2013 - 07:36 PM, said:

Just like everyone who predicts about the future. Normally wrong. Why? Because the world is far more random and chaotic then people can accept.

"They" were just as sure man was creating a new ice age as they are sure that man is creating a warming catastrophe.  They scared the living crap out of kids that are now grown and should know better than to take these corrupt charlatans at their word.  Back then if you questioned them you were ostracized and  attacked for defying the lords of climate science, just as you are ostracized and attacked today for defying the AGW quacks.  Believe it or not, the climate quacks proposed we pump carbon into the atmosphere to create a little warming!  In 40 years they have learned only two things, climate catastrophe pays and the public is easily manipulated when the mainstream media is your marketeer.  Oh yes, the public has a short memory.

Nice midterms democrats.  As Pelosi says, "Embrace the suck".

#8    spartan max2

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 10:35 PM

View PostMerc14, on 22 April 2013 - 08:02 PM, said:

"They" were just as sure man was creating a new ice age as they are sure that man is creating a warming catastrophe.  They scared the living crap out of kids that are now grown and should know better than to take these corrupt charlatans at their word.  Back then if you questioned them you were ostracized and  attacked for defying the lords of climate science, just as you are ostracized and attacked today for defying the AGW quacks.  Believe it or not, the climate quacks proposed we pump carbon into the atmosphere to create a little warming!  In 40 years they have learned only two things, climate catastrophe pays and the public is easily manipulated when the mainstream media is your marketeer.  Oh yes, the public has a short memory.

My dad was talking about that today. Basically said how they preached to everyone that we were all going to be dead by todays time.

" I imagine that the intellegent people are the ones so intellegent that they dont even need or want to look "intellegent" anymore".
Criss Jami

#9    redhen

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 11:56 PM

These prognosticators did not forsee the Green Revolution. That agricultural change fed all those people who would have otherwise starved.  But now we have three times the global population and we still have famines.

You can laugh all you want about these doomsayers, but without changes in environmental laws we would be frying from the ozone hole and wallowing in open industrial sewers.  Do you think Rachel Carlson was an alarmist quack too?


#10    Merc14

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 12:29 AM

View Postredhen, on 22 April 2013 - 11:56 PM, said:

These prognosticators did not forsee the Green Revolution. That agricultural change fed all those people who would have otherwise starved.  But now we have three times the global population and we still have famines.

You can laugh all you want about these doomsayers, but without changes in environmental laws we would be frying from the ozone hole and wallowing in open industrial sewers.  Do you think Rachel Carlson was an alarmist quack too?

Rachel Carson was a fraud and her delusional book, Silent Spring, which was based on very flawed science, is responsible for the deaths of millions of people due to the runaway malarial infections that occurred when DDT was outlawed.. Take a peek at what The American Council on Science has to say re. Carson's scientific studies http://dwb.unl.edu/T...micals/ddt.html

Nice midterms democrats.  As Pelosi says, "Embrace the suck".

#11    redhen

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 01:10 AM

I dunno, I see a lot of agreement in the scientific community, the public and Kennedy. Now the chemical companies; from wiki

"According to White-Stevens, "If man were to follow the teachings of Miss Carson, we would return to the Dark Ages, and the insects and diseases and vermin would once again inherit the earth."[56] Others went further, attacking Carson's scientific credentials (because her training was in marine biology rather than biochemistry) and her personal character. White-Stevens labeled her "a fanatic defender of the cult of the balance of nature",[57] while former Secretary of Agriculture Ezra Taft Benson—in a letter to Dwight D. Eisenhower—reportedly concluded that because she was unmarried despite being physically attractive, she was "probably a Communist".[58"

The last ad hominen made me laugh.  Anyways, she wasn't against a total ban,i.e. Africa.


#12    Merc14

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 01:23 AM

View Postredhen, on 23 April 2013 - 01:10 AM, said:

I dunno, I see a lot of agreement in the scientific community, the public and Kennedy. Now the chemical companies; from wiki

"According to White-Stevens, "If man were to follow the teachings of Miss Carson, we would return to the Dark Ages, and the insects and diseases and vermin would once again inherit the earth."[56] Others went further, attacking Carson's scientific credentials (because her training was in marine biology rather than biochemistry) and her personal character. White-Stevens labeled her "a fanatic defender of the cult of the balance of nature",[57] while former Secretary of Agriculture Ezra Taft Benson—in a letter to Dwight D. Eisenhower—reportedly concluded that because she was unmarried despite being physically attractive, she was "probably a Communist".[58"

The last ad hominen made me laugh.  Anyways, she wasn't against a total ban,i.e. Africa.

She was for a total ban because human life meant little or nothing to her.  I personally think she was a zealot with sociopath tendencies but that is just my personal opinion FWIW.  She isn't totally to blame because the congress went along with her quackery, egged on by the compromised press.  Still, millions upon millions of Africans died from malaria, which was getting under control at the time, because of the ban on DDT.  This will be looked on as genocide in the future.

Edited by Merc14, 23 April 2013 - 01:31 AM.

Nice midterms democrats.  As Pelosi says, "Embrace the suck".

#13    redhen

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 03:52 AM

View PostMerc14, on 23 April 2013 - 01:23 AM, said:

She was for a total ban because human life meant little or nothing to her.

riggght, like most biologists.

Quote

I personally think she was a zealot with sociopath tendencies but that is just my personal opinion FWIW.

noted

Quote

She isn't totally to blame because the congress went along with her quackery, egged on by the compromised press.  Still, millions upon millions of Africans died from malaria, which was getting under control at the time, because of the ban on DDT.  This will be looked on as genocide in the future.

from wiki; "WHO's anti-malaria campaign of the 1950s and 1960s relied heavily on DDT and the results were promising, though temporary. Experts tie the resurgence of malaria to multiple factors, including poor leadership, management and funding of malaria control programs; poverty; civil unrest; and increased irrigation. The evolution of resistance to first-generation drugs (e.g. chloroquine) and to insecticides exacerbated the situation."

yup, sounds like Africa I'm afraid. sad.


#14    Merc14

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 04:19 AM

View Postredhen, on 23 April 2013 - 03:52 AM, said:

riggght, like most biologists.



noted



from wiki; "WHO's anti-malaria campaign of the 1950s and 1960s relied heavily on DDT and the results were promising, though temporary. Experts tie the resurgence of malaria to multiple factors, including poor leadership, management and funding of malaria control programs; poverty; civil unrest; and increased irrigation. The evolution of resistance to first-generation drugs (e.g. chloroquine) and to insecticides exacerbated the situation."

yup, sounds like Africa I'm afraid. sad.
and the banning of DDT which had been working miracles until it wasn't there any longer.  Stop apologizing for a truly screwed up woman.  Her science wasn't  flawed, it was faked.  Do some research, some real research on what was discovered and then get back to me. Defending the indefensible because it shatters a belief you have is cowardice.

Nice midterms democrats.  As Pelosi says, "Embrace the suck".

#15    Doug1o29

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 01:23 PM

View PostMerc14, on 22 April 2013 - 06:07 PM, said:

Here are some of my favorite fun and fact filled predictions from the first Earth Day in 1970.

“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
• Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

There was a temporary dip in global temps in the 1960s (That's the last time Lake Erie froze over, BTW.).  This created a downward trend line.  Most people don't understand that a trend is a point-estimate.  It is the direction something is headed in THIS INSTANT.  A trend doesn't tell you anything about what will happen three seconds later - just that at this one point, temps were headed down.  That trend lasted less than a decade, which in climatology is no time at all - not even enough to produce an estimate of mean temps.

The popular press, unable to understand what a trend line is, mistook it for a prediction.  If you will check the climatology journals of the time, you will find that the predictions of a new ice age didn't come from their pages - it was the invention of people writing in newspapers and such that didn't know anything about climate.

What Mr. Watt's qualifications are and whether this quotation actually came from him, I have not had the time to investigate, but it would be very helpful if you could cite something written by Watt to support your claim.

Quote

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.”
• Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

I take it that you have never heard of the Sahel.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that with a rising population, you are eventually going to reach carrying capacity.  Did Denis happen to say WHEN this would happen?

We have already had food shortages due to drought.  So far, we have been able to import food from other areas, or shift to other types of crops.  But with all resources stretched progressively thinner, this option will not be available forever.  Drought is usually the trigger for starvation.  It looks like we are pulling out of the current drought cycle without serious damage.  Droughts recur at intervals of 20 to 50 years, so we can pretty much predict when the next one will be:  2040s to 2050s.  That's when Mr. Hayes' forecast might actually happen.

(I suspect that Mr. Hayes has no expertise in this area.  Just because a person is a good organizer, doesn't mean he actually knows what he's talking about.)

It will probably be disease, rather than starvation that has the greatest impact.  Starvation weakens, but doesn't usually kill.  The weakened individual is then picked off by disease.  Thus, Merc can continue to say that the mass starvation prediction didn't happen.

Quote

We are prospecting for the very last of our resources and using up the nonrenewable things many times faster than we are finding new ones.”
• Martin Litton, Sierra Club director

Martin is another Luddite that peddled BS and still does to this day.  Martin ever said no to a dollar.
The Sierra Club peddles a lot of BS.  Sometimes what they're saying is sound and sometimes it isn't.  Personally, I don't take their word for anything unless I have already checked it out.

But how would one actually know if we're running out of something?  After all, the mines are still producing it, or the farmers are still growing it, so we aren't out yet.  Right?

Watch the prices and the supplies.  If the price goes up and new resources suddenly come online, that's just market economics at work.  But if the prices go up, stay up and no new resources appear, that's a shortage.  Five years ago, gas prices around here were $1.70 a gallon.  Since then, we have been madly drilling oil wells right here IN TOWN and the Baaken is turning out to be the largest strike this country's ever had.  The US is talking about being energy-independent in ten years.  But the price of gas is at $3.40 a gallon.  Somebody's not telling us the truth.

Quote

So when the tenured professors start piling BS upon BS, peer review it and then predict the end of the world is nigh during Earth month, please remember that they have been peddling this claptrap for 4 decades and never got a thing right.  They were absurdly wrong in 1970 yet, no matter how wrong they are or have been, the media still worships at their altar.
It's called critical thinking.  You have to apply it to everything.  Not just climate change, but also to the ravings of denier-lunatics.

And it's the popular media that can't seem to get anything right.
Doug

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Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott




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