They are using data from 2008 for a report in 2011? Best advice is not to overly rely on that report.
Newer data is also available even if they do not have their hands on it. In 2009 the ATF began training Mexican authorites to use e-trace. [link]
Then we have to consider the source. According to the Atlantic:
Stratfor Is a Joke and So Is Wikileaks for Taking It Seriously
Fox also attempted to discredit the 90% figure by claiming it was 17% which is higher than Statfor's estimate (which Stratfor used horrible math since they are claiming less than 12% of "all guns siezed", no one is going to know the actual percentage of all the guns seized since only a few were sent to us to be traced and not all of those could be traced, out of those we can trace we then derive a working sample, any percentage has to be drawn from the working sample. The working sample will not be totally accurate but is way more accurate than claiming less than 12%.
That sample revealed 87% can be traced to us.
Back to Fox. According to FactCheck.org:
The Myth of 17 Percent
According to a Fox News report, titled "The Myth of 90 Percent," only "17 percent of guns found at Mexican crime scenes have been traced to the U.S." But the 17 percent figure is a myth, too. The reporters made some mistaken assumptions about how many guns had actually been traced to U.S. sources.
Fox News reporters William La Jeunesse and Maxim Lott note, quite correctly, that Mexico doesn't submit all the guns it recovers to the U.S. for tracing. Furthermore, Fox News reported, this is "because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S." And it quoted a law enforcement official as to why:
Fox News, April 2: "Not every weapon seized in Mexico has a serial number on it that would make it traceable, and the U.S. effort to trace weapons really only extends to weapons that have been in the U.S. market," Matt Allen, special agent of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told FOX News.
If that’s true, then the guns given to ATF for tracing constitute a badly biased sample of all crime guns seized in Mexico. But the ATF officials we contacted don’t confirm that. What an ATF spokesperson would say is that the agency could trace more than 90 percent of all the guns submitted by Mexico to the U.S. – they either originated in this country or were imported here before heading south.
However that may be, the Fox figure of 17 percent is based on a misreading of some confusing House subcommittee testimony by ATF official William Newell. The Fox reporters come up with a figure of 5,114 guns traced to U.S. sources in fiscal 2007 and 2008. That figures to 17.6 percent of the 29,000 figure for guns seized in Mexico, as given by the country's attorney general.
The 5,114 figure is simply wrong. What Newell said quite clearly is that the number of guns submitted to ATF in those two years was 11,055: "3,312 in FY 2007 [and] 7,743 in FY 2008." Newell also testified, as other ATF officials have done, that 90 percent of the guns traced were determined to have come from the U.S. So based on Newell's testimony, the Fox reporters should have used a figure of 9,950 guns from U.S. sources. That figures out to just over 34 percent of guns recovered, assuming that the 29,000 figure supplied by Mexico's attorney general is correct.
Even that number is too low. At our request, an ATF spokesman gave us more detailed figures for how many guns had been submitted and traced during those two years. Of the guns seized in Mexico and given to ATF for tracing, the agency actually found 95 percent came from U.S. sources in fiscal 2007 and 93 percent in fiscal 2008. That comes to a total of 10,347 guns from U.S. sources for those two years, or 36 percent of what Mexican authorities say they recovered.
The mistake the Fox News reporters made was to focus on some numbers given by Newell and Hoover in separate testimony, regarding numbers of guns traced to specific states. But not all guns traced to the U.S. can be traced to specific states. The Fox numbers are "a subset" of the actual total traced to U.S. sources, one official said.
I understand there is a fulltime mill which fills in the demand to those who mistrust our government. That does not make the information being fed to that audience (who mistrusts are government and president) as accurate.
Many of us believe in a fully functional society and the checks and balances that stabilize a democracy. It is true that the corporations have influenced our election process and politicians and that we need more checks and balances to counter that, those checks and balances are required because the framers never could have known of the corporate influence that would be introduced throughout the march of time, but for those who believe our government is always lying are clearly in the land of conspiracy theory.
The 90% is drawn from a working sample and is the most current and accurate estimate we could make by using only unclassified information. I understand this will not reach the depths of conspiracy theorists and mainstream malcontents who do not care for true analysis but for those who can appreciate, rest easy.
Our government is telling us the truth about this.
Do not allow the fear of others to diminish the perceived quality of your life. Stress can have worse effects than smoking and rob years of your life and rob you from your family, friends, and all those you could help in the future by just being you. Minimize stress as much as possible.
Do not believe conspiracy theories which cause you to stress.
The only sensible next step is to advocate diminishing the gray and black markets that fuel the cartels. Too many victims are being made there and we require more security from our neighbors to maintain stability continent-wide as we become more integrative.
Edited by Leave Britney alone!, 04 May 2013 - 09:31 AM.