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Global warming has been 'fairly flat'

lord stern global warming

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#1    Still Waters

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 03:50 PM

The peer, who first warned the Government of the cost of climate change in his 2006 Stern Report, said that for the last decade global warming has remained stable.


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#2    spartan max2

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 04:33 PM

And yet another breaks away from the global warming myth :tsu:

Kinda atleast. he said these things go in cycles so it will rise again.

Edited by spartan max2, 26 May 2013 - 04:35 PM.

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#3    Ashotep


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Posted 26 May 2013 - 05:11 PM

Last summer was the hottest and driest summer on record for us.  Where does he get his information from?

#4    Doug1o29



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Posted 26 May 2013 - 06:33 PM

View PostHilander, on 26 May 2013 - 05:11 PM, said:

Last summer was the hottest and driest summer on record for us.  Where does he get his information from?
Actually, the temperature has continued to rise slowly over the last decade.  1998 was an aberration driven by an El Nino event.  But since then, 2005 and 2010 have been hotter, with 2007 in a statistical tie with 1998.  So far, the all-time hottest calendar year was 2010.  If one uses the meteorological year (December to November) 2002 is in a statistical tie with 1998.

What Stern means is that warming hasn't been as great over the last few years.  As far back as tree-ring and instrument records go, temperatures have always followed the same pattern:  a sudden rapid increase lasting 25 to 50 years, followed by a slow decline.  Before the current one, the last minimum was in 1907.  Temperatures climbed almost half a degree over the next 46 years, reaching a new high in 1953.  They then declined 0.09 degrees to 1976 (23 years), then started up again, climbing 0.75 degrees to 1998 (22 years).  But this time, temperatures didn't decline; between 1998 and 2010 (12 years) they rose another 0.05 degrees.  We're only 14 years into the current "stair-step," so it's way too early to start saying we won't see another drastic rise in temps.

It has been less than three years since we set the all-time high, so I wouldn't buy the denialist hype just yet.  --Take two thermometers and call me in 2040.

But those are global averages, about 30% land based and 70% sea based.  The sea temps are continuing to rise, so global warming isn't exactly dormant.  Spartan max2's assumption that this means warming is a dead issue is based on a misunderstanding of what is going on.

And even if temps do not rise at all between now and 2040, the temperature increase that has already happened will melt off the Arctic Ocean, making the "wild weather" we've been having worse than it already is.  And that means more droughts, more F5 tornados and higher food prices - caused by warming that has already happened.

An increase of 1.2 degrees since 1907 doesn't sound like much, but it is enough to keep Lake Erie from freezing over, entrain the melt-off the Arctic Ocean, add several thousand square miles to the Sahara, institute a new weather regime planet-wide and kill hundreds of thousands of acres of forest.  All that has already happened.  The only way not to see it is to remain as deliberately uninformed as possible about climate matters.

Edited by Doug1o29, 26 May 2013 - 06:38 PM.

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