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Weather forecasting for dummies


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#16    sepulchrave

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Posted 08 June 2013 - 04:59 PM

View Postpantodragon, on 08 June 2013 - 03:54 PM, said:

Please read my earlier blog: A day in the life of......  This explains the mechanisms behind divination which make it apparent why divination does, and will always, be more effective than meteorology.
I did read the blog post, and perhaps I am too thickheaded to understand it but I don't see how it shows that divination is more effective than meteorology.

To me your method seems to boil down to simply using one's intuition to assess a situation.

Which is great, and definitely extremely efficient, but only provides practical answers if one has a well-developed intuition regarding that situation.

And I don't think there is any means of developing one's intuition for a particular situation other than via long and thorough experience.

The goal of meteorology (and all science, for that matter) is to gain understanding and develop predictive models that anyone can apply, regardless of whether or not they have had direct experience.

In 1966 the Soviets landed a spaceprobe on the moon; at that point no human pilot had ever landed anything on the moon, but the landing was successful (and done more or less on autopilot) because the scientists and engineers who planned the flight path of the probe understood classical mechanics, and could predict how the probe would behave near the moon.


#17    Jessica Christ

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Posted 08 June 2013 - 11:10 PM

Didn't Einstein use dreams (intuition) to solve a complex problem once? Didn't some other inventors also get clues from dreams?


Quote

Barrett has also extensively reviewed scientific and historical literature, looking for examples of problems solved in dreams.

She found examples of almost every type of problem being solved in a dream, from the mathematical to the artistic. But many were related to problems that required individuals to visualize something in his or her mind, such as an inventor picturing a new device.

The other major category of problems solved in dreams included "ones where the conventional wisdom is just wrong about how to approach the problem," Barrett said.


Dreams might have evolved to be particularly good at allowing us to work out puzzles that fall into those two categories, she said.

http://www.livescien...s-revealed.html

Not going to forsake the weatherperson for intuition but not going to slam intuition either and if someone wants to solely rely on it that is their prerogative. No need to be dismissive here.


#18    sepulchrave

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 05:33 PM

View PostThe world needs you, on 08 June 2013 - 11:10 PM, said:

Didn't Einstein use dreams (intuition) to solve a complex problem once? Didn't some other inventors also get clues from dreams?
Not going to forsake the weatherperson for intuition but not going to slam intuition either and if someone wants to solely rely on it that is their prerogative. No need to be dismissive here.
I wasn't trying to be dismissive.

Many scientists use intuition for guidance in solving complicated problems. But for this to work the scientists have to have well-developed intuition that is based on years of experience in that particular field.

I agree that Pantodragon's intuition makes her a very accurate weather forecaster - in her local environment. But I am pretty sure if you took her to a different continent, and a totally different climate zone, her intuitive predicting ability would be significantly reduced.

I am an experimental physicist. Having worked in this field for several years, I have a pretty good ``gut feeling'' for whether or not an experiment worked. But my intuition is lousy for predicting the weather.

Einstein's intuition was very valuable for science, because he was already a very accomplished and experienced scientist. I kind of doubt Einstein was any good at predicting the weather either.

Intuition is valuable, but it is not a substitution for ``observer-independent'' prediction models, which is what the laborious scientific method is trying to provide.


#19    rashore

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 05:52 PM

Another intuitive way some folks tell the weather is by their joints, usually after an injury or due to arthritis... When the bones ache, means the pressure is changing, and likely rain is on the way.

I don't think divination vs science is easy vs hard... It's just different methods.


#20    pantodragon

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 04:27 PM

View PostSky Scanner, on 06 June 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

When taking a plane journey, i'll stick with them assessing things through tried and tested data collection instead of your intuition.

No.  Not MY intuition.  YOUR intuition.


#21    Timonthy

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 04:30 PM

in·tu·i·tion  
/ˌint(y)o͞oˈiSHən/
Noun
The ability to understand something immediately, without the need for conscious reasoning.
A thing that one knows or considers likely from instinctive feeling rather than conscious reasoning.

div·i·na·tion  
/ˌdivəˈnāSHən/
Noun
The practice of seeking knowledge of the future or the unknown by supernatural means.


Two very different concepts. Divination being paranormal - no proof as always.

As others have said: Please start giving us your most accurate forecasts and we can compare them with meteorology forecasts and the actual observations and see how you go.

Are you up for the challenge? A chance to prove you're right?


Posted Image


#22    pantodragon

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 04:35 PM

View Postsepulchrave, on 08 June 2013 - 04:59 PM, said:

I did read the blog post, and perhaps I am too thickheaded to understand it but I don't see how it shows that divination is more effective than meteorology.

To me your method seems to boil down to simply using one's intuition to assess a situation.

Which is great, and definitely extremely efficient, but only provides practical answers if one has a well-developed intuition regarding that situation.

And I don't think there is any means of developing one's intuition for a particular situation other than via long and thorough experience.



Yes, this would be fair if we were only talking about meteorology.  But we are not.  The abilities you have to develop are much more generally applicable.  Basically they enable you to look after your health, to live well and happily and what's more, to dream BIG, far bigger than landing a probe on the moon.  Further, in developing these abilities, your mind is developing and growing and you are entering a world where developing new abilities, where growth and development of the mind, are ongoing routine processes --- the idea of the mind peeking in one's 20s and then declining doesn't happen.  But give your mind away to scientists, let them do the weather forecasting and your health etc for you, and you are in to all the problems of an aging and declining mind.


#23    Timonthy

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 11:04 PM

pantodragon, are you going to demonstrate your abilities?

This is one thread you've started where you actually have the means to properly support your argument.

Posted Image


#24    sepulchrave

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Posted 11 June 2013 - 03:56 PM

View Postpantodragon, on 10 June 2013 - 04:35 PM, said:

Yes, this would be fair if we were only talking about meteorology.  But we are not.  The abilities you have to develop are much more generally applicable.  Basically they enable you to look after your health, to live well and happily and what's more, to dream BIG, far bigger than landing a probe on the moon.
To me, the desire to do these things is an excellent argument for learning science and engineering. Of course I suppose that is only if you want to ever realize your big dreams.

View Postpantodragon, on 10 June 2013 - 04:35 PM, said:

But give your mind away to scientists, let them do the weather forecasting and your health etc for you, and you are in to all the problems of an aging and declining mind.
You and I seem to have very different opinions of science and scientists.

Hey if your intuition is so good, can you answer some questions for me?

  • Is nickel oxide (NiO) a Mott-Hubbard or charge transfer insulator?
  • Are the roots of the Reimann zeta function all the prime numbers?
  • What square roots of integers can be perfectly drawn using only a compass and a straight edge?
  • What causes appendicitis?
  • Is it possible to make a thick transparent material that also conducts electricity?


Edited by sepulchrave, 11 June 2013 - 03:56 PM.


#25    Yes_Man

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Posted 11 June 2013 - 04:48 PM

My Ant theory seemed to be correct, it is raining!!


#26    pantodragon

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Posted 13 June 2013 - 03:13 PM

View PostTimonthy, on 10 June 2013 - 11:04 PM, said:

pantodragon, are you going to demonstrate your abilities?

This is one thread you've started where you actually have the means to properly support your argument.

I refer you to the Matt Damon film Hereafter for the reasons why I will not --- it would damage my health.  Furthermore, this is also the reason why scientists will never be able to authenticate these processes.  As I have said elsewhere, this process is accomplished through a symbiosis with another mind (Quew).  The function amongst others of the Quew is to maintain the health of its human partner.  It will never support bad behaviour, where "bad" in this world means injurious to health and well-being.  Without the cooperation of the Quew, dream interpretations, predictions etc do not work.  The Quew would never cooperate with the experiments of science because they would be injurious to the subject of the experiments.


#27    pantodragon

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Posted 13 June 2013 - 03:19 PM

View Postsepulchrave, on 11 June 2013 - 03:56 PM, said:

To me, the desire to do these things is an excellent argument for learning science and engineering. Of course I suppose that is only if you want to ever realize your big dreams.

The trouble here is that you do not speak from a position of ever having experienced the alternative.  Nor do you appear to have the imagination or awareness to be dis-satisfied with the present.




Quote

Hey if your intuition is so good, can you answer some questions for me?


  • Is nickel oxide (NiO) a Mott-Hubbard or charge transfer insulator?
  • Are the roots of the Reimann zeta function all the prime numbers?
  • What square roots of integers can be perfectly drawn using only a compass and a straight edge?
  • What causes appendicitis?
  • Is it possible to make a thick transparent material that also conducts electricity?

I refer you to my reply above to Timonthy.  Not that I expect you to be convinced.  The usual response is "Oh how convenient".  What can I say?  Scientists are just so determined, so bloody-minded, so thrawn, that for the sake of doing things the scientific way, they will kill the goose that lays the golden egg just to see the mechanism.


#28    sepulchrave

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Posted 13 June 2013 - 05:15 PM

View Postpantodragon, on 13 June 2013 - 03:19 PM, said:

I refer you to my reply above to Timonthy.  Not that I expect you to be convinced.
I just find myself confused by what you are trying to achieve with your posts. Again, this is possibly because I am too thickheaded and shortsighted.

I will accept, for the sake of argument, that you are an ``enlightened'' person. That your life is more fulfilling, more satisfying than mine in ways I will never truly understand unless I open my mind.

BUT... the path you present to others seems to summarize to ``dream a lot, and hate and distrust academics and scientists''.

To me, it seems like your posts contain more vitriol than I would expect from someone who has achieved inner peace, and your arguments are almost comical examples of rhetorical fallacies.

I consider myself and academic, and my paycheque definitely comes directly from the good tax payers of Canada. In exchange for this, I spend my days researching advanced materials in the hopes that some of them may eventually be of benefit society.

So perhaps you will forgive me for being a bit offended that you continually make arguments claiming that the scientific and academic worlds are full of idiots, enslaved to the scientific process, but your only justification you offer for this opinion is personal anecdotes and faulty logic.

The fact that you use a machine made out of a silicon wafer with more than a billion distinct functional units that have been engineered on a nanoscale level which connects to a global network of fibre optic cables and low-latency metal wires to post antiscientific screeds that can be read by others continents away is just icing on the cake.


#29    woopypooky

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Posted 14 June 2013 - 02:45 PM

Morning time, flocks of birds flying low, indicate afternoon raining. No matter how clear/sunny the weather is.
If they fly high high up in the sky, then there's no rain. Its something to do with air pressure/temperature. ITs correct 10/10 times.

Edited by woopypooky, 14 June 2013 - 02:47 PM.


#30    Raptor Witness

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 08:25 AM

I think if you were forced to live with the American Indians, you would have starved to death.

Posted Image "Make Manifest Destiny a memory ..." 12-7-2011  "When the earth is displaced fully three times at the point of destiny ..." 10-29-2013




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