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The fracking bubble is about to burst


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#16    Frank Merton

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Posted 14 June 2013 - 01:06 PM

It actually begins to look like there may be viable deposits of oil and gas in Vietnam.  You better believe whatever is there will be developed.  We need it.


#17    Doug1o29

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Posted 14 June 2013 - 05:55 PM

View Postquestionmark, on 14 June 2013 - 12:56 PM, said:

I will certainly not allow any fracking on my land.
I have noticed that most "green" landowners suddenly become very pro-fracking when you waive those big royalty checks under their noses.

Several years ago a Regional Vice-President of the Sierra Club sold off 40 acres to timber in one of the worst logging jobs I know of.  Environmental ethics has a H-uv-a-time competing with $$$$$.
Doug

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#18    questionmark

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Posted 14 June 2013 - 07:50 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 14 June 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

I have noticed that most "green" landowners suddenly become very pro-fracking when you waive those big royalty checks under their noses.

Several years ago a Regional Vice-President of the Sierra Club sold off 40 acres to timber in one of the worst logging jobs I know of.  Environmental ethics has a H-uv-a-time competing with $$$$$.
Doug

Got enough money, and surely cannot take any with me when I croak. When I am against something I don't change my mind for a sack of gold.

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#19    Doug1o29

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Posted 14 June 2013 - 09:17 PM

View Postquestionmark, on 14 June 2013 - 07:50 PM, said:

Got enough money, and surely cannot take any with me when I croak. When I am against something I don't change my mind for a sack of gold.
That's what they all say.
Doug

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#20    Rafterman

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 03:27 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 13 June 2013 - 10:09 PM, said:

No we can't :tu:

Everything in the articles has been discussed by oil analysis’s many times before - this article simply represents a nice summery. Fracking has dubious economics backing it with far to much capital investment to make it cost competitive. There is still plenty of cheaper conventional gas in production for unconventional gas to make economic sense. Energy independence at what cost?

Br Cornelius

Let me rephrase.  Can we all agree that the burning water because of fracking in Gasland in bull****?

And while you may agree with your second paragraph, the source completely discredits it in my opinion.

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#21    keithisco

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 03:39 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 14 June 2013 - 09:17 PM, said:

That's what they all say.
Doug
Thats what we all say. No Fracking on my land either. Poison the aquifers in another way (already being done) but Fracking is being used to kill off the alternative energy market. Do I give a rats a***, yes I do. I own nothing, I am just holding my land for future generations. I want to leave it in good stead.!!!

My land produces real Commodities, nothing short lived in the Orchards and Groves. I am totally with questionmark on this, I have enough money in the bank, I have a life that I enjoy and I really do not yearn for anything more. No Rolls Royce, Ferrari, Porsche in the garage, no Pollocks hanging in the Living Room, no Rolex watches... but comfortable, and know that my daughter will be well cared for should I snuff out the flame anytime soon.

What more is there??? Seriously

Edited by keithisco, 18 June 2013 - 03:45 PM.


#22    Frank Merton

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 03:51 PM

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs.  Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years.  Alternative energy will have its day.

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way.  These claims strike me as politics, not reality.


#23    questionmark

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 03:59 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 18 June 2013 - 03:51 PM, said:

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs.  Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years.  Alternative energy will have its day.

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way.  These claims strike me as politics, not reality.

Yes they would, but sometimes the principle you stand for is more important than the money or the fact that they will get it their way anyway. Makes you have less problems shaving 'cause you can still look at yourself in the mirror.

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#24    keithisco

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 04:11 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 18 June 2013 - 03:51 PM, said:

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs.  Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years.  Alternative energy will have its day.

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way.  These claims strike me as politics, not reality.

Do not lay the blame at the feet of Democrats... Cheney is into this up to his neck!! Fracked gas (not oil) runs out exponentially, not in an X=Y way, but like a Lithium Battery - one minute it is there, the next minute you have nothing.

20 years of gas production is the most likely scenario, if you have nothing in backup then you are screwed (apologies for the use of the vernacular).


#25    Doug1o29

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 04:12 PM

View Postkeithisco, on 18 June 2013 - 03:39 PM, said:

Thats what we all say. No Fracking on my land either. Poison the aquifers in another way (already being done) but Fracking is being used to kill off the alternative energy market. Do I give a rats a***, yes I do. I own nothing, I am just holding my land for future generations. I want to leave it in good stead.!!!

My land produces real Commodities, nothing short lived in the Orchards and Groves.
I checked out the premise of this thread (That fracking is about to die of natural [economic] causes) with a production geologist.  Her reaction:  "That's news to me."  Her team has just developed a new technique for high-pressure drilling, cutting drilling time (and cost) in half.  The technique is an industrial secret, but I guess I just let the high-pressure part of it out of the bag.

Anyway, I'm still having trouble seeing what the danger from fracking is.  Drilling mud, especially oil-based mud is more toxic than fracking fluids.  I think the public is mislead by the term "mud."  Sounds like something you scooped up from the haul road, not a mix of chemicals, clays, sands, etc. etc.  But fracking fluid is mostly water and sand.  The producing strata are two MILES underground, a long way from ground water, and the casing is sealed.  It's made of concrete and bonds to the rock.

So how often does the casing fail?  There are a quarter of a million wells in Oklahoma and as far as I know, only one has failed.  That one was an abandoned arsenic well that was cleaned up and re-sealed by the Corporation Commission in less than a week from the day it was reported.

Why is there so much trouble in Pennsylvania and Ohio?  Oklahoma has had oil and gas drilling for over a hundred years, now.  We have put in the rules and regs needed to safeguard the public.  Ohio and Pennsylvania have not.  That simple.

Most companies are responsible citizens and just tell their drillers to abide by Oklahoma standards.  But a few aren't and don't take adequate safeguards.  Those few need regulation.  So put in the regulations and quit crying about it.

What is the major pollutant coming out of oil/gas wells?  Good old table salt.  That is a serious problem if you're a plant, or the salt water gets into a stream.  Ever tried to clean up a salt spill?  Compared to that, oil is a piece of cake:  the oil soaks into the duff and soil and stays near the top of the profile where it is easy to get at.  Salt, on the other hand, quickly settles to great depths, then travels with the ground water.

BTW:  Day before yesterday we had a derrickman fall from a rig and get killed.  Nobody knows why his safety harness wasn't hooked in.  That's the only drilling-related fatality I know of in the last couple years.  We had a rig blow up about two years ago, but nobody was hurt.  So how many fracking fatalities do you know of during that same time span?


Now that I've said all that:  natural gas contains carbon.  It's 75% carbon by weight.  Burning it pollutes the atmosphere, whether the oil and gas folks like to think so, or not.  It is not as clean as the commercials would like you to think.  We have to phase it out for the health and safety of ourselves and our planet.  Switching to gas as an intermediate step makes no sense when we have the technology to switch directly to wind and do it cheaper than using oil and at a rate competitive with gas.

So while the anti-fracking thing seems to me to be mostly hype, we still have to phase out gas drilling and that will include fracking.
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#26    keithisco

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 04:18 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 18 June 2013 - 03:51 PM, said:

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs.  Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years.  Alternative energy will have its day.

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way.  These claims strike me as politics, not reality.
They could try, but the Mineral rights below my land are mine alone!! Where is the profit if I charge Royalties of 100 euros per cubic foot extracted? If they were prepared to pay that, then I would increase my royalties to 1000 euros per cubic foot...


#27    Frank Merton

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 04:20 PM

Good luck.


#28    Doug1o29

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 04:25 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 18 June 2013 - 03:51 PM, said:

If someone refused to lease their land for a fracking well, wouldn't the oil company just drill on nearby property?
In the US, you have a have the drilling rights to the nearby property or you can't drill it.  There are several instances where state parks and, I believe, a national park, leased drilling rights on the condition that the well not be drilled on park land.  The oil companies complied and drilled laterals from nearby private land.  I sold a non-drilling lease on my place to an oil/gas company.  My property was within the draw-down radius (1320 feet) of the well, so they had to have the lease or they couldn't drill.  The depth is a little over a mile.  In one lateral they drilled beneath my land to reach a neighbor's.  We had no problems whatever from fracking, but there was a salt water spill that got into my pond.  They just wrote a check for the fish.  No questions asked.

Oil companies don't want trouble with their property owners.  In western Oklahoma, one man may own 5000 acres and if you make him mad, he leases the other 4960 acres to somebody else.  Besides which, the leases are for only five years to begin with and you don't want to be drilling a well for somebody else to profit from.  So you take good care of your owners.

Quote

As far as "killing off" the alternative energy businesses, I doubt it, but if it happens then it will be because these businesses couldn't control costs.  Eventually even fracked oil will run out, although this now seems like maybe twenty more years.  Alternative energy will have its day.
Wind is already cheaper than gas.  There's a political fight going on in California with the oil-and-gas folks trying to keep wind out.  I predict they'll lose.  I think wind is the wave of the future.

Quote

I think it behooves the authorities to protect the groundwater, and I doubt it if Democrats in power will look the other way if this begins to happen in any serious way.  These claims strike me as politics, not reality.
Agreed.
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott

#29    keithisco

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 04:29 PM

View PostDoug1o29, on 18 June 2013 - 04:12 PM, said:

I checked out the premise of this thread (That fracking is about to die of natural [economic] causes) with a production geologist.  Her reaction:  "That's news to me."  Her team has just developed a new technique for high-pressure drilling, cutting drilling time (and cost) in half.  The technique is an industrial secret, but I guess I just let the high-pressure part of it out of the bag.

Anyway, I'm still having trouble seeing what the danger from fracking is.  Drilling mud, especially oil-based mud is more toxic than fracking fluids.  I think the public is mislead by the term "mud."  Sounds like something you scooped up from the haul road, not a mix of chemicals, clays, sands, etc. etc.  But fracking fluid is mostly water and sand.  The producing strata are two MILES underground, a long way from ground water, and the casing is sealed.  It's made of concrete and bonds to the rock.

So how often does the casing fail?  There are a quarter of a million wells in Oklahoma and as far as I know, only one has failed.  That one was an abandoned arsenic well that was cleaned up and re-sealed by the Corporation Commission in less than a week from the day it was reported.

Why is there so much trouble in Pennsylvania and Ohio?  Oklahoma has had oil and gas drilling for over a hundred years, now.  We have put in the rules and regs needed to safeguard the public.  Ohio and Pennsylvania have not.  That simple.

Most companies are responsible citizens and just tell their drillers to abide by Oklahoma standards.  But a few aren't and don't take adequate safeguards.  Those few need regulation.  So put in the regulations and quit crying about it.

What is the major pollutant coming out of oil/gas wells?  Good old table salt.  That is a serious problem if you're a plant, or the salt water gets into a stream.  Ever tried to clean up a salt spill?  Compared to that, oil is a piece of cake:  the oil soaks into the duff and soil and stays near the top of the profile where it is easy to get at.  Salt, on the other hand, quickly settles to great depths, then travels with the ground water.

BTW:  Day before yesterday we had a derrickman fall from a rig and get killed.  Nobody knows why his safety harness wasn't hooked in.  That's the only drilling-related fatality I know of in the last couple years.  We had a rig blow up about two years ago, but nobody was hurt.  So how many fracking fatalities do you know of during that same time span?


Now that I've said all that:  natural gas contains carbon.  It's 75% carbon by weight.  Burning it pollutes the atmosphere, whether the oil and gas folks like to think so, or not.  It is not as clean as the commercials would like you to think.  We have to phase it out for the health and safety of ourselves and our planet.  Switching to gas as an intermediate step makes no sense when we have the technology to switch directly to wind and do it cheaper than using oil and at a rate competitive with gas.

So while the anti-fracking thing seems to me to be mostly hype, we still have to phase out gas drilling and that will include fracking.
Doug

Please vist the link. It is far from sand and water: http://www.endocrine...-27-11Final.pdf

A very brief web search will also show that 2kms underground is deeper than most fracking wells, and that even then the pollution of aquifers above this level  (some more than 2kms underground) is also compromised.


#30    Doug1o29

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 05:12 PM

View Postkeithisco, on 18 June 2013 - 04:29 PM, said:

Please vist the link. It is far from sand and water: http://www.endocrine...-27-11Final.pdf

A very brief web search will also show that 2kms underground is deeper than most fracking wells, and that even then the pollution of aquifers above this level  (some more than 2kms underground) is also compromised.
I know that there are chemicals other than just sand and water used in fracking.  A fracking company's only claim to being better than its competition is the content of its fracking fluid.  If it gets out that they're fluid isn't really any different (or better) than anybody else's, they could lose a lot of business.  And that's the reason for the secrecy.

For some reason, my computer doesn't want to download pdf files.  But I'll try to see what else I can find.

Oil companies don't want to frack a well if it isn't needed.  Fracking is expensive.  Better not to spend the money if you don't need it.

Drilling and fracking are done by different companies.  If one of them screws up, they both get sued.  A fracking company doesn't want to get caught breaking the law, so it doesn't frack wells that aren't drilled according to plan.  And the drilling company doesn't want to get sued for stealing somebody else's oil/gas, so they try to keep the well bore where it belongs.  But, a two-mile-long drill string is a bit like trying to hit a golf ball from the next tee by pushing a noodle at it.  Drill strings have gotten lost before.  The well logs may be in the possession of five or six different companies and can be subpoenaed if there is ever a question.  And juries tend to award large settlements if an oil company is the defendant.  So everybody tries to play by the rules (usually).
Doug

If I have seen farther than other men, it is because I stood on the shoulders of giants. --Bernard de Chartres
The beginning of knowledge is the realization that one doesn't and cannot know everything.
Science is the father of knowledge, but opinion breeds ignorance. --Hippocrates
Ignorance is not an opinion. --Adam Scott




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