veproject1, on 25 June 2013 - 12:36 AM, said:

Hello to all dear members of this forum. I'm not a mathematician but I'd like to know an answer to my question. Is it possible to calculate the probability of event that is shown in this video? If yes, could anyone to do this?

Hmm...yes and no.

Generally speaking, probability is used to calculate the chances of a random event occurring. In the case of this video, what they are doing is not so much calculating the chances of a random event, but rather the chances of a very specific event (actually, they aren't calculating anything, but we won't nitpick).

They then imply that the ludicrously low probability that their very specific event would take place somehow reflects the calculation of probability of an entirely separate event, with entirely different starting variables, with no specific target conclusion, and completely different interaction behaviour.

Prima facie, it isn't too dissimilar to asking how to calculate the probability of a meticulously planned, manicured, and cultured garden arising from taking a bunch of seeds and randomly tossing them out in a field without further concern or involvement.

Alternatively, if one chooses the less generous interpretation of intent, it is much like taking the previously created garden, tearing it out of the ground, throwing the lot into a tumbler, then spilling it back out on the ground, pointing to it triumphantly, and claiming that it is evidence that water cannot turn into ice.

So, it basically comes down to a matter of intellectual honesty.

Are you looking to honestly calculate the probability that a working television set can be put together by randomly tumbling the individual components together?

Or are you attempting to create a false dichotomy between two processes that do not have a single thing in common, other than at some point both have the word "random" in one part, of one stage, of one of multiple processes, that go into resulting in the final product, one final product which is intentional, and the other which is not?