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Global warming 'on pause' but set to resume

global warming on pause resume oceans temperatures

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#166    Zaphod222

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 02:31 PM

Fact is the reason that politicias, liberal media pundits, and certainly the goons at the UN love "global warming" so much is that is so politically correct and is such a great excuse to expand government programs.

That people fail to see that and gobble up the slogans, is pretty astonishing.

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#167    Frank Merton

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 02:34 PM

Who cares what that idiot said; the point is what the scientific community knows.  l think you are allowing your politics and the fact that this issue has been misused by the Left for their purposes to prevent you from seeing the very real danger that confronts us.

One other thing -- anyone can "cherry pick" quotes to "prove" some point or other.  It is propaganda, not rational argument.

Edited by Frank Merton, 04 August 2013 - 03:07 PM.


#168    Br Cornelius

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 03:20 PM

View Postregeneratia, on 04 August 2013 - 04:31 AM, said:

From Susan Joy Rennison's blog, all of it.


http://www.susanrenn...hp#Latest_News1
Notes from a ‘mole’ in Al Gore’s Climate Leadership Training
WUWT, 2nd August 2013
A person who is actually a climate skeptic (and WUWT regular) applied for and was granted a training slot in Chicago this week. http://climaterealit...adership-corps/ and has graduated as one of the 1500 people that attended the event.
For obvious reasons, I can’t reveal the person’s name, but I can reveal the communication I received last night.
The ‘mole’ writes:
I’m now a card-carrying, official Gore-bot.
(I took copious notes)
a) This was a super-liberal “kum-bay-ya” crowd as I predicted. I kept many of my opinions to myself. The event truly did have a “religious cult programming” feel to it, similar to an Amway meeting I attended years ago – carefully timed applause, audience call & response etc. Very bizarre.
B) Al Gore himself went through the entire slide show that we are supposed to use as his “Climate Leaders.”

(rennison’s) Comment: Wow…. Al Gore has started his own little cult and done it by the book… Well, cults can be based on virtually anything as ‘beliefs’ are only part of what is going on… Whatever, the discussion of Al Gore and obvious use of cult tactics on this forum is interesting…. Really, WUWT is a climate skeptic blog! Well, this is too much! I suppose being realistic, cults are a tried and tested system of easily brainwashing susceptible people into committing to a cause… and then allow themselves to be exploited… Easy when you have zero integrity and have the know-how…
How terribly informative.
You free market fundamentalists have your very own devil now :w00t:

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 04 August 2013 - 03:20 PM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#169    Br Cornelius

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 03:27 PM

View Postdanielost, on 04 August 2013 - 02:17 PM, said:

Duringbthe lasr fifteen years, all we have heard and you have said, is that the climate was over heating and that was mans fault.  Now, this story comes out and says never mind, but it will still take place.   I have said that the earths climate was not anywhere as bad as the environmentalist have been saying, I was correct in this.  Back in 2000 or 2001  that the earths temp would start to cool off for th next thirty five years.  Although so far I have been wrong on tge cool off, I was closer to being correct.  We still have another twenty three years for the planet to still cool off.  


Frank this is in answer to you about past climate changes as well.

There is solar maximus, which is where are now, that is an eleven year cycle.  The is a seventy year cycle which we are on the downword slide right now. There is also a hundred year cycle, I don't know where we are in that cycle.  hich means for the next five and  half years, the temps should get cooler.
Daniel you have been closer to been wrong than you admit. the last 15 years has seen a steady but slower rise in temperature, there has been no cooling and we have experienced the 4 warmest years on record. These are not signs that cooling is imminent and not a sign  that global warming has stopped.
Only cherry picking your data makes you anywhere close to be correct in your belief.

The solar cycle diverged from current terrestrial temperature trends over 30 years ago - the climate is not warming or cooling due to the 11year cycle. The data refutes your belief again.
This year is likely to top global temperature records - which is not an indication of imminent cooling. You will have your answer in 5 years time and it will not be pointing to a new ice age, it will be pointing to continued and accelerating warming. Attempts to account for the last 100years of warming using solar cycles have consistently failed to find any meaningful correlation - because the Sun is not the main driver of current warming - CO2 is.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 04 August 2013 - 03:29 PM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#170    danielost

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 08:42 PM

You need to read the story.  It clearly states there has not been a temp. rise in fifteen years.  That statement was made by climte scientists.

I am a Mormon.  If I don't use Mormons believe, those my beliefs only.
I do not go to church haven't for thirty years.
There are other Mormons on this site. So if I have misspoken about the beliefs. I welcome their input.
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#171    emberdawn

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Posted 04 August 2013 - 09:22 PM

Come visit texas this week there is no lack of warming here.


#172    Br Cornelius

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 08:27 AM

View Postdanielost, on 04 August 2013 - 08:42 PM, said:

You need to read the story.  It clearly states there has not been a temp. rise in fifteen years.  That statement was made by climte scientists.
The most comprehensive dataset (the Metoffice) shows a slow but positive rise in temperatures. the American dataset shows a flat temperature trend, but is less accurate since it excludes the Arctic where most of the warming over the last 15 years has taken place. Then there is the fact that applying statistical techniques appropriate to the data (ie a 30 year time span - which is necessary to define a climate trend shows that warming has continued with almost no change over the last 15 years). The statement that there has been no warming is only true is you start your calculations from the hottest year on record, 1998, and don't apply a statistical test of significance to the trend from 1998 to 2012. If you apply a test of statistical significance the exceptional years of 1998 and the other four hot years since means that there is no real discernible trend at all. If you attempt to calculate a basic mean starting at 1996 the upward trend is strong, if you start calculating the trend from 2000 the upward trend is strong - this tells you that the data is to noisy to calculate a trend over those 15 years and is why the data fails a statistical test of significance.

On all counts, it is not true to say there has been no warming since 1998, and there are many other reasons for saying that this is not a true reflection of the global state of the climate.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 05 August 2013 - 08:30 AM.

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Robert Anton Wilson

#173    Br Cornelius

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 12:47 PM

An excellent article which discusses why most of the IPCC predictions are far to conservative;

http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz2auvAiDsX

Quote

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cm...l#ixzz2b69phnUB


But there is one thing the final version must include when it is published next month, according to Sir Bob Watson, the British scientist and climate action advocate who chaired the IPCC for nearly six years up to 2002. “I think the current Working Group I report must address in detail the slowing down in the last 10 years,” he said, adding that although the past three decades were probably the warmest in 1,000 years, “there is also no question that it would appear that the rate of change in the last decade or so is definitely slower than the previous two decades.”
“The IPCC must address this because the climate deniers are linking on to this as a reason to say we’ve got all the science wrong. So I think one of the very most important issues is indeed for them to address this issue absolutely head on.”
The extent of this slowdown depends on how one measures it. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than the previous one and the long-term trend since the 1850s clearly shows a steady temperature rise. However, the average rate of warming was 0.17C per decade between 1970 and 1998 and just 0.04C per decade from 1998 to 2012, according to one of the main global temperature data sets.
Slowing temperature rises have happened before, notably between the 1940s and 1970s. But the recent slowdown has come even though the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 400 parts per million earlier this year, the highest level in millions of years.
This issue is so new that it was barely considered when the IPCC first met in 2009 to decide what would be in its next assessment and there is still no agreed name for it. Many scientists have started to call it the “hiatus” or “pause” and though it will be addressed in the final report, there is still no consensus on what has caused it. Some think it is happening because the oceans are absorbing more heat than once thought, especially at very great depths. Others think aerosols, tiny airborne particles from volcanic eruptions or industrial pollution that reflect sunlight away from the Earth could be having more of a cooling impact.
The most contentious theory – and the one global warming sceptics are most interested in – is that the climate is not as sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions as previously thought. Even if this proves correct, all the climate models used by the IPCC for its latest assessment show that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, the world will still exceed this century the 2C warming from pre-industrial levels that some scientists believe could prompt dangerous forms of climate change.
But in a sign of what a potent issue the slowdown is becoming, politicians in the US and the UK are already asking if it means they can ease back on contentious measures to curb global warming such as offshore wind farms or carbon pricing.

Br Cornelius

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Robert Anton Wilson

#174    Frank Merton

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 03:13 PM

I have a small but tangible fear that we might be heading toward causing either a runaway heating and convert our planet into a Venus or even a runaway dust storm and convert us into a Mars.  Do you have comments?


#175    danielost

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 03:46 PM

There has been no global warming in the last fifteen years according to the met, this is what the op story says.   I can tell that nether of you have read the story.


Frank long before we become venus we will enter an ice age to cool things down.  No chance we can become mars, earth is to wet.


Bc looks like your cherry picking again.  Only one data points show warming, which means all of the other data points shows no warming.

I am a Mormon.  If I don't use Mormons believe, those my beliefs only.
I do not go to church haven't for thirty years.
There are other Mormons on this site. So if I have misspoken about the beliefs. I welcome their input.
I am not perfect and never will be. I do strive to be true to myself. I do my best to stay true to the Mormon faith. Thanks for caring and if you don't peace be with you.

#176    Frank Merton

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 03:54 PM

As I understand it a greenhouse gas runaway effect could occur if enough methane should be released because of more gradual warming -- turning us into a planet much like Venus.

I also understand that there is a lot of water on Mars -- it is just that it is frozen a little under the surface, and that it became frozen because of dust storms.

These are no doubt remote possibilities, but in risk theory the seriousness of a possibility is a combination not just of its odds but also the intensity.

I think you are entirely too glib when what I see is humanity and all other life on earth at risk, and you are way too patronizing with me, which is no way to convince me of anything.  In fact from what I can see your ignorance of how to handle statistics properly is abysmal and you should back off.


#177    Br Cornelius

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 04:00 PM

View Postdanielost, on 05 August 2013 - 03:46 PM, said:

There has been no global warming in the last fifteen years according to the met, this is what the op story says.   I can tell that nether of you have read the story.


Frank long before we become venus we will enter an ice age to cool things down.  No chance we can become mars, earth is to wet.


Bc looks like your cherry picking again.  Only one data points show warming, which means all of the other data points shows no warming.
The met office is not the most complete dataset after all, my mistake. the met office dataset doesn't cover the poles and so shows the weakest warming trend. The most complete dataset is GISS(NASA) which does cover the poles and shows warming over the last 15 years. I apologise for not checking my facts before stating them - but the best dataset shows continued warming as I stated. So only by using the dataset with the smallest coverage can it be said that the global mean temperature has not increased over the last 15 years.

You really don't know what you are talking about Daniel, look at the reference which I just posted - the most complete dataset shows continued warming and if you apply the analysis over a meaningful period to assess climate there is almost no change in trend. this is because the period leading up to 1998 had a very steep warming trend peaking out at the hottest year on record 1998. Since then its been to noisy to make a simple statement about the trend.

Posted Image


This is the reality.

.......

Frank, things can never go the way of venus on earth because we just couldn't get that much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. the reason that venus has a run away temperature is because it is so hot (due to its proximity to the sun) that all carbonate carrying rocks outgas their carbon to the atmosphere. This is helped by the high acidity of the atmosphere which dissolves surface rocks. It just can't go that way here.
Mars is a dusty planet because it is to small to hold its water which has been lost to space, the dryness is intrinsic to the nature of the planet. The earth could become hot and humid with a semi-tropical climate to the poles - but we could never lose the water to space in the same way. Depending on what the polar ice melt does to the deep ocean currents we could reach a new higher plateau of temperature or we could return to an ice age if the deep polar currents become blocked. The data is uncertain - but the best guesses at this stage say that even a deep ocean switch off would not be enough to halt the continued warming of the planet - in which case the northern latitudes would just get wetter and probably slightly colder.




Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 05 August 2013 - 04:14 PM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#178    Frank Merton

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 04:16 PM

I'm not reassured by your response.  Venus and Mars are the way they are because of their own histories and natures, and merely saying that the Earth is different doesn't say much.

I'm worried more about methane than CO2, although at late stages of such a process CO2 would enter into it, the damage would already be done.

With regard to the earth, I'm worried about deforestation or maybe smoke bringing about a planet wide dust storm similar to what happens occasionally on Mars.  It would take only one to freeze all the water and create a Mars-like atmosphere.

I have the feeling Mars and Venus are models or perhaps warnings.


#179    Br Cornelius

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 04:25 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 05 August 2013 - 04:16 PM, said:

I'm not reassured by your response.  Venus and Mars are the way they are because of their own histories and natures, and merely saying that the Earth is different doesn't say much.

I'm worried more about methane than CO2, although at late stages of such a process CO2 would enter into it, the damage would already be done.

With regard to the earth, I'm worried about deforestation or maybe smoke bringing about a planet wide dust storm similar to what happens occasionally on Mars.  It would take only one to freeze all the water and create a Mars-like atmosphere.

I have the feeling Mars and Venus are models or perhaps warnings.
The methane bomb has gone off before a number of times in our planetary history. Feedbacks mean that equilibrium returns after a period of relative chaos. The unfortunate fact is that those periods of chaos have resulted in almost total extinction of life on the planet (over 90% of species). However the planet never locked into a new meta stable state comparable to either Mars or Venus as a consequence.
Your fears are unfounded unless you are afraid for the extinction of most higher life forms.

Br Cornelius

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#180    Yes_Man

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 02:07 PM

The met office? how many times they have been wrong in 20 years? lots. They can't even provide updated weather





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