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After oil's gone, what then?


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#16    seeder

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 08:48 AM

View PostMichelle, on 28 July 2013 - 04:57 AM, said:

People have no idea how many things they use every day that are made from petroleum products they couldn't do without. Try finding an environmentally friendly toothbrush.

There are quite a few already, heres just one link

http://www.sutmundo....o-toothbrushes/

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#17    Otto von Pickelhaube

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 08:59 AM

Well, heavens, if there's 50-off years' supply left, given that new kinds of fuel are already in practical use, and with the speed of development there is in all areas of Science, I really don't think people need worry too much. I'd like to see solar powered helium airships, and a return to sea travel, with new kinds of wind technology. I think that'd be neat.

If, as it seems, we are in the process of becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful, the ethics most important for the survival of the true, free, human individual would be: cheat, lie, evade, fake it, be elsewhere, forge documents, build improved electronic gadgets in your garage that’ll outwit the gadgets used by the authorities.

- Philip K. Dick.


#18    Otto von Pickelhaube

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:01 AM

View Postredhen, on 28 July 2013 - 03:38 AM, said:

Sure, we can live with reduced plastic products, or even completely without plastics, we did without prior to WWII. But what are going to do without synthetic rubber tires? There's only so many rubber trees.

Will there be enough tires for the world's military forces? Commercial planes and  trucks, cars?



On what, wooden tires?
Find an alternative. it really couldn't be beyond the world's greatest brains, once they've finished messing around with large Hadron colliders and all that stuff.

*Horses and trains don't need rubber tyres, or tires, do they.

If, as it seems, we are in the process of becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful, the ethics most important for the survival of the true, free, human individual would be: cheat, lie, evade, fake it, be elsewhere, forge documents, build improved electronic gadgets in your garage that’ll outwit the gadgets used by the authorities.

- Philip K. Dick.


#19    spud the mackem

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:03 AM

View Postredhen, on 28 July 2013 - 03:14 AM, said:

A common method of stating the world's oil supply is the Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio, and according to BP;

"World proved oil reserves at the end of 2012 reached 1668.9 billion barrels, sufficient to meet 52.9 years of global production."   (by production, they mean utilization).

This ratio used to be 40 for a long time, but I suspect the Canadian tar sands bumped that figure up.

Anyways, once it's gone, what then? Sure there's ethanol, bio-fuel, electricity and hydrogen for fuel, but what about all the innumerable products that we rely on that are made with oil? The one that stands out for me are tires. It doesn't matter what kind of alternative fuel you have, without oil, you aren't going to be transporting anything faster than horse power.

There are synthetic replacements for oil in development that could be used to make tires, but industrial quantities are decades away. There are some tires that are supplemented with petroleum alternatives, including oranges, but I think it would be impractical to use oranges as a complete replacement for petroleum.

So what say you?
1) Are we headed back to the Iron age soon or am I missing some vital bit of technological news?

2) Would this necessarily be a bad thing?
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#20    Otto von Pickelhaube

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:05 AM

View Postredhen, on 28 July 2013 - 03:38 AM, said:

Sure, we can live with reduced plastic products, or even completely without plastics, we did without prior to WWII. But what are going to do without synthetic rubber tires? There's only so many rubber trees.

Will there be enough tires for the world's military forces? Commercial planes and  trucks, cars?



On what, wooden tires?

View Postredhen, on 28 July 2013 - 03:43 AM, said:

My understanding is that we hit peak oil in the 1970's, it's all downhill now. There's not much time before we run out, and I haven't heard much talk about manufacturing tires without petroleum, at least in the msm. All I hear about from politicians and journalists is the development of future alternatives for gasoline. But when it comes to oil, there's a big difference between alternatives and replacements, given all the products we depend on it for.
I really do think you're worrying a bit unnecessarily.The end of large scale oil production for purposes of vehicular transportation will mean that there'd be enough reserves left for such things as tires or tyres, and if in the longer term it means that dependence on road borne transportation diminishes, then tyres or tires won't be needed in anything like such large quantities, will they?

If, as it seems, we are in the process of becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful, the ethics most important for the survival of the true, free, human individual would be: cheat, lie, evade, fake it, be elsewhere, forge documents, build improved electronic gadgets in your garage that’ll outwit the gadgets used by the authorities.

- Philip K. Dick.


#21    redhen

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 12:07 PM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 28 July 2013 - 08:59 AM, said:

Well, heavens, if there's 50-off years' supply left, given that new kinds of fuel are already in practical use, and with the speed of development there is in all areas of Science, I really don't think people need worry too much. I'd like to see solar powered helium airships, and a return to sea travel, with new kinds of wind technology. I think that'd be neat.

Yes there are alternative fuels, and that's all I've heard about in the news and political speeches, but no one's talking about all the other petroleum products we use, like tires.

There are alternatives to oil, but I don't think there are any replacements. So, we have 50 years til the party ends.

p.s. I like your idea of new sail technology.


#22    Mr.United_Nations

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 12:36 PM

Tires? In don't think that will go down till well, burning rubber is an awful smell and could be toxic.
Now Animal and Human waste would be my choice.

When I was in school they said oil would run out in 200 years or so


#23    Rafterman

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 01:20 PM

You guys sound a bit like the guy who ran the US patent office in the late 1800s who wanted to close the thing down because "everything had been invented".

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#24    Aggie

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 02:22 PM

LOL Rafterman!!

I believe nothing will be done until we are about to use the last drop of oil left on this planet, and there is still enough under the US and Canada (like somebody has already mentioned) and also South-America (Venezuela for example).

I don't think we will be alive to see that day.

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#25    Zaphod222

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 02:26 PM

View PostTiggs, on 28 July 2013 - 03:45 AM, said:

This is the only alternative that I'm aware of that can be used to produce petroleum products. Allegedly.

Ah, the good old biofuel tale. Government have been pumping absurd amount of money into subsidizing these pipe dreams, and we have seen the first tortilla riots already, as farmland is switched from food production to fuel production.

Personally, I think it is a gigantic pipe dream (in this case, pipes filled with algae). But I will let myself be surprised. Maybe they do eventually manage to get more energy out of it than they put into it.... but I would not bet on it.

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#26    Br Cornelius

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 03:12 PM

View PostZaphod222, on 28 July 2013 - 02:26 PM, said:

Ah, the good old biofuel tale. Government have been pumping absurd amount of money into subsidizing these pipe dreams, and we have seen the first tortilla riots already, as farmland is switched from food production to fuel production.

Personally, I think it is a gigantic pipe dream (in this case, pipes filled with algae). But I will let myself be surprised. Maybe they do eventually manage to get more energy out of it than they put into it.... but I would not bet on it.
BioAlgae has none of these issues and helps to capture carbon on power station stacks. in this specific case your judgement is ill judged.

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#27    redhen

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 03:48 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 28 July 2013 - 03:12 PM, said:

BioAlgae has none of these issues and helps to capture carbon on power station stacks. in this specific case your judgement is ill judged.

That's great, but can you make tires out of it?


#28    Br Cornelius

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 03:58 PM

View Postredhen, on 28 July 2013 - 03:48 PM, said:

That's great, but can you make tires out of it?
It seems that maybe possible - but I have not read the specific details. it would be very sweet crude, so possibly not.

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#29    Tiggs

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 04:34 PM

View Postredhen, on 28 July 2013 - 03:48 PM, said:

That's great, but can you make tires out of it?
Allegedly, it can be used to create bio isoprene, which is the petroleum extract used in making tyres.

http://www.nature.co...s.2011.568.html
http://www.newscient...ml#.UfVHBcu9KSN
http://www.biofuelsd...-and-glycosbio/



#30    questionmark

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 05:10 PM

View PostTiggs, on 28 July 2013 - 04:34 PM, said:

Allegedly, it can be used to create bio isoprene, which is the petroleum extract used in making tyres.

http://www.nature.co...s.2011.568.html
http://www.newscient...ml#.UfVHBcu9KSN
http://www.biofuelsd...-and-glycosbio/

Not surprising, the first rubber tires were a 95% vegetable product based on a tree sap called caoutchouc. The other 5% several stabilizers and chimney ash.

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