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Global Warming Total Fraud

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#421    RavenHawk

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 01:21 AM

View PostDieChecker, on 23 September 2013 - 11:53 PM, said:

Maybe this is where the Medieval Warm Period disappeared to....

http://www.nationalp...3d-5078af9cb409
Good article.  Reminds me of how the early Church stagnated the advance of science out of ignorance.

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Dr. Zaius: There is no contradiction between faith and science... true science!

George Taylor: Are you willing to put that statement to the test?

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#422    Br Cornelius

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 06:13 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 23 September 2013 - 11:11 PM, said:

that graph doesn;t even cover the medieval warm period.
discussion with you is impossible.
Maybe the MWP was a predominently Northern European event as has been shown by the difference between European reconstructions and global reconstructions. If you want to see the MWP look exclusively at the Northern European data and it will come out looking much more like the deniers believe.

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#423    Br Cornelius

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 06:38 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 23 September 2013 - 11:11 PM, said:

that graph doesn;t even cover the medieval warm period.
discussion with you is impossible.
Maybe LF, thats because thats the only dataset which has adequate global coverage to say what the average temperature was across the whole planet and not just Northern Europe. Its not satisfactory to infer global trends from a limited geographical coverage - because that would be called cherry picking.

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#424    Little Fish

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 09:06 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 24 September 2013 - 06:38 AM, said:

Maybe LF, thats because thats the only dataset which has adequate global coverage to say what the average temperature was across the whole planet and not just Northern Europe. Its not satisfactory to infer global trends from a limited geographical coverage - because that would be called cherry picking.

Br Cornelius
99% of the hundreds of studies from all parts of the world, pole to pole, asia to the americas acknowledge a warm period between 900-1400AD (curious that you'd show a graph that starts at 1500ad to show the MWP was just a fantasy of the climate science commmunity). michael mann does one study that removes it by using a technique derided by several statistics experts. even the ipcc have now walked away from it.


#425    Almagest

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 09:16 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 23 September 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

mann's study also "showed" there was no medieval warm period.

from the forthcoming leaked ipcc report
"The 30 years from 1983-2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years.

When exactly do you think the Medieval period was?

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#426    Br Cornelius

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 10:56 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 25 September 2013 - 09:06 AM, said:

99% of the hundreds of studies from all parts of the world, pole to pole, asia to the americas acknowledge a warm period between 900-1400AD (curious that you'd show a graph that starts at 1500ad to show the MWP was just a fantasy of the climate science commmunity). michael mann does one study that removes it by using a technique derided by several statistics experts. even the ipcc have now walked away from it.
The period shows temperature anomalies across the globe for that period, but many were negative and that is why proxie reconstructions only show a strong MWP in the Northern Hemisphere centred around Europe. Taking the mean of all the global proxies shows that the MWP was not as spectactular as you would like to portray and is why Manns hockey stick shows relatively little warming for the globe over that period.

The borehole proxie's shows almost no LIA either which again goes to show that it was a predominantly European event rather than a global one.

Overall what is most significant here is that the current warming of the Global mean temperature has exceeded the MWP and has done so at a much faster rate than the gradual increase that preceded the MWP. The main point is that Manns hockey stick is a true reflection of the global temperature trend over the last 1000+ years.

What you are attempting to do is to take the most extreme warming location for the MWP and infer that the whole world warmed equally strongly. This would be like using the current Arctic warming to infer that the globe has warmed 3-5 degree's centigrade in the last 150 years which would plainly be cherry picking.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 25 September 2013 - 10:58 AM.

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Robert Anton Wilson

#427    Br Cornelius

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 03:05 PM

Its really quite simple regarding the Mann hockey stick. You either accept it, and those many studies which have duplicated it as genuine, along with the investigations by national science academies into its authenticity,  as been a true reflection of the temperature record - or you subscribe to the notion that the whole field of climate science and those who support it are indulging in a massive and all encompassing Conspiracy. There really are no other alternatives regarding the Hockey Stick.

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#428    RavenHawk

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 08:10 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 25 September 2013 - 10:56 AM, said:

Taking the mean of all the global proxies shows that the MWP was not as spectactular as you would like to portray
I don’t think he was implying that it was spectacular; just that it existed and was significant.  Just as the LIA that followed existed which destroys the hockey stick concept.  The hockey stick is sensationalism to the extreme.  This is another example of what lengths AGW apologists will go to to hang on to their crumbling theory.  If one thing doesn’t pan out, they will latch onto something else.

Which is a good segue into this.  I literally stumbled across it last night.

http://www.latimes.c...,0,791164.story

Since just before the start of the 21st century, the Earth's average global surface temperature has failed to rise despite soaring levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases and years of dire warnings from environmental advocates.

This seems to be the core of the message of the IPCC report but this won’t stop the AGW apologist.  They will find something to cling to and what it’ll be is the fact that the oceans absorb the heat and when water warms, it expands.  And they’re going with that as the reasons for rising water and not melting ice caps.  So with warmer oceans, the melting ice caps can’t shut off the Gulf Stream Conveyor.  But wait a minute!  Isn’t that what the AGW apologists where saying that the hockey stick was going to melt the ice caps and that was going to shut down the GSC?  So in actuality, we end up with equilibrium in the system as climate naturally changes – Gaia adapts to change, shouldn’t we?

Now, as scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gather in Sweden this week to approve portions of the IPCC's fifth assessment report, they are finding themselves pressured to explain this glaring discrepancy.

Gee, how political is that?  Let me guess, they will only approve that which supports AGW – by consensus, not science.

The panel, a United Nations creation that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore,…

I thought Gore was not a scientist, yet he and his predictions are still leading the IPCC.  The poster boy for AGW.

Though scientists don't have any firm answers, they do have multiple theories.

This is probably the best description of “Solid Science” that I’ve seen.  This is also why it is the perfect political tool.

Xie has argued that the hiatus is the result of heat absorption by the Pacific Ocean — a little-understood, naturally occurring process that repeats itself every few decades.

Another curious comment.  How many other little-understood, naturally occurring processes are there?  I guess they don’t exist at least until the next hockey stick is long buried, then AGW apologists will latch onto another little-understood one to keep the theory alive.  When it becomes more understood, it is no longer useful to AGW apologists.

For the general public, the existence of the hiatus has been difficult to reconcile with reports of record-breaking summer heat and precedent-setting Arctic ice melts.

When you are at a local peak, of course the surrounding summers will be record breaking.  It all depends on how deep the trough that we are moving into lasts before the next chance for a higher peak.

At the same time, those who deny the tenets of climate change science — that the burning of fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and warms it — have seized on the hiatus, calling it proof that global warming isn't real.

I believe that this is incorrect.  It’s not climate change that is being denied, it’s AGW.  These are two totally different things.  No one is denying that burning fossil fuels increase the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.  What is being denied is that Man can change the climate.  He can dirty his environment (or clean it up) but he doesn’t produce the energy required to actually change the climate.  His activates may add to the natural processes but he doesn’t cause them.  And that is the crux of AGW.

Climate scientists, meanwhile, have had a different response. Although most view the pause as a temporary interruption in a long-term warming trend, some disagree and say it has revealed serious flaws in the deliberative processes of the IPCC.

It’s not temporary; it’s the natural cyclic progression.  Some are beginning to see the folly.

One of the most prominent of these critics is Judith Curry, a climatologist who heads the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. She was involved in the third IPCC assessment, which was published in 2001. But now she accuses the organization of intellectual arrogance and bias.

Seems like I’m commenting on the entire piece.  That wasn’t my intentions.  But this reflects my ‘Planet of the Apes’ comment that went satisfiably without a repost.

"All other things being equal, adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will have a warming effect on the planet," Curry said. "However, all things are never equal, and what we are seeing is natural climate variability dominating over human impact."

WOW! What a statement!!  What a concept.  Man can only impact climate, he doesn’t change it.   

Curry isn't the only one to suggest flaws in established climate models. IPCC vice chair Francis Zwiers, director of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at the University of Victoria in Canada, co-wrote a paper published in this month's Nature Climate Change that said climate models had "significantly" overestimated global warming over the last 20 years — and especially for the last 15 years, which coincides with the onset of the hiatus.

Computer models "significantly" overestimating.  Unbelievable!  How can this be?  The world is coming to an end.

The models had predicted that the average global surface temperature would increase by 0.21 of a degree Celsius over this period, but they turned out to be off by a factor of four, Zwiers and his colleagues wrote. In reality, the average temperature has edged up only 0.05 of a degree Celsius over that time — which in a statistical sense is not significantly different from zero.

Let’s repeat that – “which in a statistical sense is not significantly different from zero”.  Maybe Carter was onto something?

Of course, people don't actually spend their entire lives subjected to the global average temperature, which is currently about 15 degrees Celsius, or 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Those who fixate on that single measurement lose sight of significant regional trends, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, climate scientists say.

There goes Gore Nobel Peace Prize.  Right out the window with the hockey stick.  Too bad, so sad.

"There's no doubt that in terms of global temperatures we've hit a little flat spot in the road here," Patzert said. "But there's been no slowdown whatsoever in sea level rise, so global warming is alive and well."

Patzert is being disingenuous here.  Of course global warming is still occurring.  We’ve been on the rise since the LIA ended unceremoniously in 1850.  What he just tried to do is distance himself from AGW.  Trying to blur the distinction.  BTW, it’s not a flat spot, it is the top of a hill.

Whether that message is communicated successfully by the IPCC this week remains to be seen. In the days leading up to the meeting, the organization has found itself on the defensive.

Yes, it is on the defensive and like all political bodies, it will not correct its mistakes to save face.  It will double down on the lie.

A draft summary that was leaked to the media reported that scientists were "95% confident" that human activity was responsible for more than half of the increase in average global surface temperature between 1951 and 2010. But critics openly scoff, considering the IPCC's poor record for predicting short-term temperature increases.

What?! not 100% confident?  Sounds like it is trying to backpedal.  It is trying to find a way out which only supports the IPCCs poor track record.  But what’s more important is that they are only acknowledging that Man was responsible for half the increase which translates as that Man is not the cause of climate change.

"This unpredicted hiatus just reflects the fact that we don't understand things as well as we thought," said Roger Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado in Boulder and vocal critic of the climate change establishment. "Now the IPCC finds itself in a position that a science group never wants to be in. It's in spin management mode."

”Unpredicted”?  I predicted it and so did many others.  And many also understand that we don't understand things as well as we thought.  This has been a no brainer, at least to those that didn’t get caught up in Gore’s fear mongering which launched the AGW agenda.

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#429    Br Cornelius

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 08:44 PM

The hockey stick is robust and includes the LIA and MWP in their proper global context (ie only major events in Northern Europe), it simply shows that last centuries and current warming is greater, more significant and more  rapid. Those two events do nothing to disprove the hockey stick.

Nothing has been destroyed by the evidence for the LIA and MWP and again you are confusing what constitutes a refutation with your own opinion Ravenhawk.

By the way Judith Curry is not a climate scientist as such, she has carried out no original research in the field. She is a scientific commentator on Climate science. There is a big difference. She has shown herself to be consistently wrong and biased in her opinion on the subject.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 25 September 2013 - 08:51 PM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#430    Little Fish

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 10:16 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 25 September 2013 - 08:44 PM, said:

Judith Curry is not a climate scientist as such, she has carried out no original research in the field.
classic!
I always suspected, now I know.

http://curry.eas.gat...linepapers.html


#431    Little Fish

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 10:43 AM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 25 September 2013 - 08:44 PM, said:

The hockey stick is robust and includes the LIA and MWP in their proper global context (ie only major events in Northern Europe),
not true, as i have shown you many times. the MWP existed in austrialia, the southern oceans, the arctic, antartica, south america, north america, africa, china and many other places outside northern europe. there have been hundreds of studies on the MWP, 99% show the MWP all over the globe. it is difficult to find one that doesn't show it, now how can you average all those studies to get a flat MWP? there would have to be an equal number of studies that showed a mini ice age during the MWP to cancel out the signal, there is no such thing as a medieval ice age period. The Mann study used bristlecone pine trees and overweighted them hundreds of times (400 times iirc) compared to the other proxies he included, bristlecone pines do not respond to temperature so should not be used as thermometers.


#432    Little Fish

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 07:30 PM

View PostBr Cornelius, on 25 September 2013 - 03:05 PM, said:

Its really quite simple regarding the Mann hockey stick. You either accept it, and those many studies which have duplicated it as genuine, along with the investigations by national science academies into its authenticity,  as been a true reflection of the temperature record - or you subscribe to the notion that the whole field of climate science and those who support it are indulging in a massive and all encompassing Conspiracy. There really are no other alternatives regarding the Hockey Stick.

Br Cornelius
or C), you or your source are deluded.

CHAIRMAN BARTON: Dr. North, do you dispute the conclusions or the methodology of Dr. Wegman’s report?

DR. NORTH [Head of the NAS (National Academy Science) panel]: No, we don’t. We don’t disagree with their criticism. In fact, pretty much the same thing is said in our report.

DR. BLOOMFIELD [Head of the Royal Statistical Society]: Our committee reviewed the methodology used by Dr. Mann and his co-workers and we felt that some of the choices they made were inappropriate. We had much the same misgivings about his work that was documented at much greater length by Dr. Wegman.

WALLACE [of the American Statistical Association]: ‘the two reports [Wegman's and NAS] were complementary, and to the extent that they overlapped, the conclusions were quite consistent.’

Posted Image


#433    Br Cornelius

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 07:27 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 26 September 2013 - 10:16 AM, said:

classic!
I always suspected, now I know.

http://curry.eas.gat...linepapers.html
My mistake.
Judith Curry has however made consistently wrong statements about climate science, statements which are demonstrably untrue. She is a very poor commentator on climate science who has decided to emphasis uncertainty over the certainty of the science.

Br Cornelius

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Robert Anton Wilson

#434    Br Cornelius

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 07:41 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 26 September 2013 - 10:43 AM, said:

not true, as i have shown you many times. the MWP existed in austrialia, the southern oceans, the arctic, antartica, south america, north america, africa, china and many other places outside northern europe. there have been hundreds of studies on the MWP, 99% show the MWP all over the globe. it is difficult to find one that doesn't show it, now how can you average all those studies to get a flat MWP? there would have to be an equal number of studies that showed a mini ice age during the MWP to cancel out the signal, there is no such thing as a medieval ice age period. The Mann study used bristlecone pine trees and overweighted them hundreds of times (400 times iirc) compared to the other proxies he included, bristlecone pines do not respond to temperature so should not be used as thermometers.
The point you are ignoring is that you MWP and LIA only show up strongly in Northern Europe. They are patchily and weakly detected in other parts of the globe. They appear in the hockey sticks which use multiple proxies (not including the bristlecone pine or even tree ring proxies), but the final uptick dwarves them because it is a consistently global and strong response to 20th century warming

Posted Image

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson

#435    Br Cornelius

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 07:48 AM

View PostLittle Fish, on 26 September 2013 - 07:30 PM, said:

or C), you or your source are deluded.

CHAIRMAN BARTON: Dr. North, do you dispute the conclusions or the methodology of Dr. Wegman’s report?

DR. NORTH [Head of the NAS (National Academy Science) panel]: No, we don’t. We don’t disagree with their criticism. In fact, pretty much the same thing is said in our report.

DR. BLOOMFIELD [Head of the Royal Statistical Society]: Our committee reviewed the methodology used by Dr. Mann and his co-workers and we felt that some of the choices they made were inappropriate. We had much the same misgivings about his work that was documented at much greater length by Dr. Wegman.

WALLACE [of the American Statistical Association]: ‘the two reports [Wegman's and NAS] were complementary, and to the extent that they overlapped, the conclusions were quite consistent.’

Posted Image
The Wegman report was shown to be wrong in the weight it placed on the conclusions it drew. The issues it raised were not significant to the final shape of the hockey stick - and you will know that because we have discussed it repeatedly. It is a work plagerizing that of McKritric and has been roundly discredited as a political document rather than a scientific anaylsis.
You will know that quoting Dr North out of context changes the conclusion he drew - which was that the Wegman report made no material difference to the shape of the hockey stick. For you to conveniently forget to reference the whole quote, after I have pointed it out to you previously, shows that you are a dingenious reporter of the facts who is indeed a believer in the grand CT.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 27 September 2013 - 07:50 AM.

I believe nothing, but I have my suspicions.

Robert Anton Wilson





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