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Probability puzzle that makes your head melt


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#1    seeder

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 12:48 PM

Monty Hall problem: The probability puzzle that makes your head melt. (not sure where to post this -  pls move if not suitable for the forum section)

Quote

A reference in a recent Magazine article to the Monty Hall problem - where a contestant has to pick one of three boxes - left readers scratching their heads. Why does this probability scenario hurt everyone's brain so much, asks maths lecturer Dr John Moriarty.

WITH VID:
http://www.bbc.co.uk...gazine-24045598

Edited by Saru, 13 September 2013 - 01:58 PM.
Reduced length of copied text

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me... It's all the rabbit poop you stumble over on your way down...
“It's easier to fool people - than to convince them that they have been fooled.”  Mark Twain

"The tragedy of life is not that it ends so soon, but that we wait so long to begin it"

#2    seeder

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 12:52 PM

Better Explained


Understanding the Monty Hall Problem

The Monty Hall problem is a counter-intuitive statistics puzzle:

There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car.
You pick a door (call it door A). You’re hoping for the car of course.
Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and always opens one of them with a goat (Both doors might have goats; he’ll randomly pick one to open)

Here’s the game: Do you stick with door A (original guess) or switch to the other unopened door? Does it matter?

Surprisingly, the odds aren’t 50-50. If you switch doors you’ll win 2/3 of the time!

http://betterexplain...y-hall-problem/

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me... It's all the rabbit poop you stumble over on your way down...
“It's easier to fool people - than to convince them that they have been fooled.”  Mark Twain

"The tragedy of life is not that it ends so soon, but that we wait so long to begin it"

#3    Ryu

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 12:54 PM

I honestly do not see what is so strange and hard about this puzzle (is it really a puzzle?) All you are doing is taking a gamble that the other box contains more money and the chances are great that the others do not. It's a cheap carnival trick and if an instructor pulled that on me I would immediately feel that I wasted my hard-earned money on such nonsense.

A supposed 2/3 chance still means nothing..you still have to chose the right one which still means your actual chances are slim.

Trying the "challenge" I find it is still gamble. After fifteen tries and winning only three times, it didn't seem to really prove anything.

Edited by Ryu, 13 September 2013 - 12:58 PM.


#4    seeder

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 12:55 PM

View PostRyu, on 13 September 2013 - 12:54 PM, said:

First off why do you have a link that directs you to a page to make a new post?

Secondly I honestly do not see what is so strange and hard about this puzzle (is it really a puzzle?) All you are doing is taking a gamble that the other box contains more money and the chances are great that the others do not. It's a cheap carnival trick and if an instructor pulled that on me I would immediately feel that I wasted my hard-earned money on such nonsense.

Link has since been edited/updated. My bad

Perhaps you didnt understand the puzzle? Have a deeper read. if you like

http://en.wikipedia....ty_Hall_problem

"The problem is a paradox of the veridical type, because the correct result (you should switch doors) is at first sight ludicrous, but is nevertheless demonstrably true. The Monty Hall problem is mathematically closely related to the earlier Three Prisoners problem and to the much older Bertrand's box paradox.

Links in text above are clickable



.

Edited by seeder, 13 September 2013 - 01:08 PM.

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me... It's all the rabbit poop you stumble over on your way down...
“It's easier to fool people - than to convince them that they have been fooled.”  Mark Twain

"The tragedy of life is not that it ends so soon, but that we wait so long to begin it"

#5    DeWitz

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 02:52 PM

Thanks, Seeder, for the reading list---I'll get no sleep tonight. . . .!

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#6    Wickian

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 04:46 PM

It's been explained enough to not be much of a confusing problem.  You have 1/3 chance when you pick door A, that means there's a 2/3 chance it's behind door B and C combined.





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