Jump to content




Welcome to Unexplained Mysteries! Please sign in or create an account to start posting and to access a host of extra features.


- - - - -

Drake Equation on Alien Life Has Been Revised


  • Please log in to reply
59 replies to this topic

#16    Frank Merton

Frank Merton

    Blue fish

  • Member
  • 17,137 posts
  • Joined:22 Jan 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Posted 13 September 2013 - 10:38 PM

View Postscowl, on 13 September 2013 - 08:51 PM, said:

That assumes that there is always something on the surface of every planet for the oxygen to bind with. It's possible that the static surface of a planet has been fully oxidized leaving the rest of the oxygen trapped in the atmosphere. Chemical reactions on planets tend to run their course and stop.
Well it wouldn't have to be on the surface.  Any free hydrogen would quickly become water, etc.  I just can't imagine a situation where free oxygen would indicate anything other than life.


#17    itsnotoutthere

itsnotoutthere

    Telekinetic

  • Member
  • 7,170 posts
  • Joined:03 Aug 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Royston Vasey

Posted 14 September 2013 - 12:05 AM

But if this article is suggesting that there are many more planets out there than we previously thought then all it does is deepen the conundrum i.e. more planets should mean a greater chance of alien life so it comes back around to the obvious point.....where are they! Why haven't they arrived yet?

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.”
― Groucho Marx

#18    Frank Merton

Frank Merton

    Blue fish

  • Member
  • 17,137 posts
  • Joined:22 Jan 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Posted 14 September 2013 - 12:08 AM

View Postitsnotoutthere, on 14 September 2013 - 12:05 AM, said:

But if this article is suggesting that there are many more planets out there than we previously thought then all it does is deepen the conundrum i.e. more planets should mean a greater chance of alien life so it comes back around to the obvious point.....where are they! Why haven't they arrived yet?
Obviously there are lots of planets, but that is only one factor in the equation.  I learned early on that there is no point in multiplying out a long line of factors if any of them is zero, no matter how big the others are.

Now we can be sure, because we exist, that none of the factors is zero, but that is a statistical sample of just one, so it is entirely possible that one or more of the factors is very, very close to zero, making "our" existence elsewhere unlikely or maybe even outrageously unlikely.


#19    lost_shaman

lost_shaman

    Majestic 12 Operative

  • Member
  • 5,986 posts
  • Joined:11 Jul 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:TEXAS

Posted 14 September 2013 - 08:14 AM

View PostFrank Merton, on 14 September 2013 - 12:08 AM, said:

Obviously there are lots of planets, but that is only one factor in the equation.  I learned early on that there is no point in multiplying out a long line of factors if any of them is zero, no matter how big the others are.

Now we can be sure, because we exist, that none of the factors is zero, but that is a statistical sample of just one, so it is entirely possible that one or more of the factors is very, very close to zero, making "our" existence elsewhere unlikely or maybe even outrageously unlikely.

The equation is certianly viable as you say, it describes ourselves. Im curious if you or Scowl or anyone would like to take the time to work the equation out based on what we know to equal just 1 (ourselves)?

Now I have to point out some factors only relate to our ability to detect Intelligent life. So lets modify the equation and only solve it to the factor fl and exclude the latter factors. How do you solve that equation to only equal 1 ( ourselves on Earth)?

Anyone feel like working that out real quick?

Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you. - Friedrich Nietzsche

#20    seeder

seeder

    Nut Cracker

  • Member
  • 14,100 posts
  • Joined:21 Nov 2012
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:UK. There if you need me

  • Never forget that only the weak fish swim with the stream, and a lie travels half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.

Posted 14 September 2013 - 09:42 AM

I'll have to give the maths a miss just now, its 10.30 am after a heavy Friday night, its all I can do to remember how many beers i shouldn't have had!  groan...

It wasn’t the miners who got rich; it was the people selling picks and shovels. Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me... It's all the rabbit poop you stumble over on your way down...
“It's easier to fool people - than to convince them that they have been fooled.”  Mark Twain

"The tragedy of life is not that it ends so soon, but that we wait so long to begin it"

#21    lost_shaman

lost_shaman

    Majestic 12 Operative

  • Member
  • 5,986 posts
  • Joined:11 Jul 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:TEXAS

Posted 14 September 2013 - 10:49 AM

View Postseeder, on 14 September 2013 - 09:42 AM, said:

I'll have to give the maths a miss just now, its 10.30 am after a heavy Friday night, its all I can do to remember how many beers i shouldn't have had!  groan...

Obviously  M=bc^2 where M is memory b is Beer and c is 300,000km per second!!! This explains Time dialation perfectly!

Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you. - Friedrich Nietzsche

#22    bison

bison

    Psychic Spy

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,739 posts
  • Joined:13 Apr 2011

Posted 14 September 2013 - 05:41 PM

It is of course possible that we are the only intelligent life in the universe. We don't have good information for all the known variables that are believed to determine the odds for the existence of such life.
Even so, it is worth considering a recurring problem in the history of human knowledge. Whenever we have supposed ourselves to be uniquely situated in some way, further learning has eventually refuted such ideas.
The Earth was once considered to be at the center of the physical universe. We saw this give way to a Sun centered universe a few centuries ago.
Once it was understood that the Milky Way was a huge collection of stars like our own Sun, it was imagined that we were at the center of it, and that our galaxy was unique in the universe. We eventually realized that we are far from being at the center of our galaxy, and that our galaxy was one of billions, strewn throughout an immense expanse of space.
It was once thought that planets were the result of exceptional cosmic accidents and must be extremely rare. We now see that planets are common, wherever we care to look.
Again and again, the assumption that we enjoy unique or exceptional circumstances in the universe has come to nothing. If I am asked now to believe that the conditions necessary for intelligent  life to arise are unique to our planet, or so exceptional as to effectively isolate us from whatever other intelligent life may exist, at some vast distance, I must respectfully decline.


#23    scowl

scowl

    Government Agent

  • Closed
  • 4,111 posts
  • Joined:17 Nov 2010
  • Gender:Not Selected

Posted 16 September 2013 - 08:28 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 13 September 2013 - 10:38 PM, said:

Well it wouldn't have to be on the surface.  Any free hydrogen would quickly become water, etc.  I just can't imagine a situation where free oxygen would indicate anything other than life.

You can't imagine an oxidized planet surface? Who said anything about free hydrogen?

I'm always amazed when people say that extraterrestrial life is the simplest explanation for something.


#24    Frank Merton

Frank Merton

    Blue fish

  • Member
  • 17,137 posts
  • Joined:22 Jan 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Posted 16 September 2013 - 08:33 PM

View Postlost_shaman, on 14 September 2013 - 08:14 AM, said:

The equation is certianly viable as you say, it describes ourselves. Im curious if you or Scowl or anyone would like to take the time to work the equation out based on what we know to equal just 1 (ourselves)?

Now I have to point out some factors only relate to our ability to detect Intelligent life. So lets modify the equation and only solve it to the factor fl and exclude the latter factors. How do you solve that equation to only equal 1 ( ourselves on Earth)?

Anyone feel like working that out real quick?
You don't understand: in a probability, "1" is certainty and "0" is certainty negative.  You don't put ones in based on our existence.  That would be using some sort of count, but since each factor is dependent on all the preceding factors being above zero, that would be pointless.


#25    scowl

scowl

    Government Agent

  • Closed
  • 4,111 posts
  • Joined:17 Nov 2010
  • Gender:Not Selected

Posted 16 September 2013 - 08:35 PM

View Postbison, on 14 September 2013 - 05:41 PM, said:

Again and again, the assumption that we enjoy unique or exceptional circumstances in the universe has come to nothing.


Only because these incorrect assumptions were based on incomplete or false information.

We now know a lot more about our planet and the life on it and all of it strongly suggests that life was the result of a series of unique and exceptional circumstances. The more we learn about life on Earth, the less likely it appears that something like it would happen again.


#26    Frank Merton

Frank Merton

    Blue fish

  • Member
  • 17,137 posts
  • Joined:22 Jan 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Posted 16 September 2013 - 08:40 PM

View Postscowl, on 16 September 2013 - 08:28 PM, said:

You can't imagine an oxidized planet surface? Who said anything about free hydrogen?

I'm always amazed when people say that extraterrestrial life is the simplest explanation for something.
I can't imagine a primitive atmosphere without hydrogen, unless all the gas had been blown away, and then there would be no oxygen either (unless replaced somehow.  What is this about an oxidized surface -- we are talking about atmospheres.  That is the point about free oxygen in the atmosphere -- it leads to oxidation -- generally of the surface hence removing it from the atmosphere.

The only way to oxidize an atmosphere that I have ever heard of and keep it oxidized is life.  Let me put it this way -- if they ever confirm significant free oxygen in an atmosphere, they are going to get very excited and that planet is going to get a lot of attention.


#27    ambelamba

ambelamba

    Government Agent

  • Closed
  • 3,568 posts
  • Joined:26 Mar 2008
  • Gender:Not Selected

Posted 18 September 2013 - 04:17 AM

One thing that Drake Equation ignores is the SIZE of a civilization. Of course, it's pretty impossible to even guess on that issue.


#28    psyche101

psyche101

    The Customer.

  • Member
  • 38,282 posts
  • Joined:30 Nov 2005
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Oz

  • If you stop to think, Remember to start again

Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:09 AM

View Postzoser, on 13 September 2013 - 07:09 PM, said:

Yes it smells with the idea that man is master of the universe and only he decides how many aliens there are out there.


LOL, that well illustrates that you do not understand the Drake Equation, nor math!

It is not a fallback position of skeptics as was earlier suggested, that would not be in line with skeptical thinking, it's more of an argument of probabilities, something a bit like Schrodinger's Cat explains all states of a particle exist until examined, the Drake Equation examines statistical probabilities and outlines basic required components to be considered with regards to radio communications and what should be detectable. As it uses unknown values and estimates, it is an illustration, not intended to be considered fact.

For instance, what is the value of fi fe fc and L in the Drake Equation?

Resolving the equation is not the point of it, contemplating it is.

Your smell needs readjusting.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants. - Sir Isaac Newton Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit. - Ed Stewart Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Dr Who

#29    psyche101

psyche101

    The Customer.

  • Member
  • 38,282 posts
  • Joined:30 Nov 2005
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Oz

  • If you stop to think, Remember to start again

Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:15 AM

View Postbison, on 14 September 2013 - 05:41 PM, said:

It is of course possible that we are the only intelligent life in the universe. We don't have good information for all the known variables that are believed to determine the odds for the existence of such life.
Even so, it is worth considering a recurring problem in the history of human knowledge. Whenever we have supposed ourselves to be uniquely situated in some way, further learning has eventually refuted such ideas.
The Earth was once considered to be at the center of the physical universe. We saw this give way to a Sun centered universe a few centuries ago.
Once it was understood that the Milky Way was a huge collection of stars like our own Sun, it was imagined that we were at the center of it, and that our galaxy was unique in the universe. We eventually realized that we are far from being at the center of our galaxy, and that our galaxy was one of billions, strewn throughout an immense expanse of space.
It was once thought that planets were the result of exceptional cosmic accidents and must be extremely rare. We now see that planets are common, wherever we care to look.
Again and again, the assumption that we enjoy unique or exceptional circumstances in the universe has come to nothing. If I am asked now to believe that the conditions necessary for intelligent  life to arise are unique to our planet, or so exceptional as to effectively isolate us from whatever other intelligent life may exist, at some vast distance, I must respectfully decline.


In all those cases, a small scientific contingent battled long and hard through adverse conditions to finally be recognised.

Like critical thinkers wading through endless reams of belief today. One cannot propose ET is not an answer any longer, one is expected to prove a negative. I think you have your analogy the wrong way around, and did not realise it.

We won't be asking this question forever, it might even be resolved in our lifetimes yet. Atmospheric compositions are likely to give us the rub here.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants. - Sir Isaac Newton Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit. - Ed Stewart Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Dr Who

#30    mcrom901

mcrom901

    plasmoid ninja

  • Member
  • 5,685 posts
  • Joined:29 Jan 2009
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:multiverse

  • space debris, decided to evolve and become us!

Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:34 AM

View Postscowl, on 16 September 2013 - 08:35 PM, said:

[/size]

Only because these incorrect assumptions were based on incomplete or false information.

We now know a lot more about our planet and the life on it and all of it strongly suggests that life was the result of a series of unique and exceptional circumstances. The more we learn about life on Earth, the less likely it appears that something like it would happen again.

why is that?





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users