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The big climate-change myth


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#1    questionmark

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 05:31 PM

Washington Post said:





Bjørn Lomborg, an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, directs the Copenhagen Consensus Center. He is the author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist,” “Cool It” and, most recently, “How Much Have Global Problems Cost the World? A Scorecard From 1900 to 2050.”

One of the most persistent claims in the climate debate is that global warming leads to more extreme weather. Green groups and even such respectable outlets as Scientific American declare that “extreme weather is a product of climate change.”

And the meme seems irresistible as a political shortcut to action. President Obama has explicitly linked a warming climate to “more extreme droughts, floods, wildfires and hurricanes.” The White House warned this summer of “increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events that come with climate change.”

Yet this is not supported by science. “General statements about extremes are almost nowhere to be found in the literature but seem to abound in the popular media,” climate scientist Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies said last month. “It’s this popular perception that global warming means all extremes have to increase all the time, even though if anyone thinks about that for 10 seconds they realize that’s nonsense.”

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#2    itsnotoutthere

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 05:58 PM

Extract :-

"A new paper in the journal Nature shows on a crucial measure that there is no increase in extremes. Looking at temperature variability as one kind of extreme weather, the authors document that extreme weather globally has been constant since 1960. Moreover, the researchers found that extreme weather as temperature variability will decline in the future with higher levels of carbon dioxide. They laconically conclude: “Our findings contradict the view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation.”

It is understandable that a lot of well-meaning people, wanting stronger action on global warming, have tried to use the meme of extreme weather to draw attention. But alarmism and panic are rarely the best way to achieve good policies. The argument that global warming generally creates more extreme weather needs to be retired."


Interesting read.

Edited by itsnotoutthere, 14 September 2013 - 06:00 PM.

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#3    freetoroam

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 06:16 PM

From the article:

"Global warming will also cause more heavy rain; this is clearly more extreme. But warming will also help alleviate water scarcity — less extreme. About 1.2 billion fewer people are expected to live with water scarcity by the end of the century because of increased precipitation."

So basically if you live in an area which will flood then move to an area which will not.
I do not doubt any of this, but what will happen today that could not be sorted out years ago in areas of flooding and drought? In other words: were do the people go?
Its not quite outright reassuring especially if you are areas like Colorado, or even North Devon.
What I am hoping will come out of this will be something looked at by the property developers in the future (and now) on where they should and should not be building.


#4    Br Cornelius

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 06:19 PM

There are clear trends in specific geographical regions showing increases in extreme weather events, and in this particular case a global mean isn't the most informative statistic.

Bjorn Lomborg is a very unreliable commentator on environmental issues.

Br Cornelius

Edited by Br Cornelius, 14 September 2013 - 06:21 PM.

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#5    questionmark

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 06:19 PM

View Postfreetoroam, on 14 September 2013 - 06:16 PM, said:

From the article:

"Global warming will also cause more heavy rain; this is clearly more extreme. But warming will also help alleviate water scarcity — less extreme. About 1.2 billion fewer people are expected to live with water scarcity by the end of the century because of increased precipitation."

So basically if you live in an area which will flood then move to an area which will not.
I do not doubt any of this, but what will happen today that could not be sorted out years ago in areas of flooding and drought? In other words: were do the people go?
Its not quite outright reassuring especially if you are areas like Colorado, or even North Devon.
What I am hoping will come out of this will be something looked at by the property developers in the future (and now) on where they should and should not be building.

Congratulations, you are the first to read and understand enough of the article to see that it may not be so well researched as Prof(ast). Lomborg pretends.

A skeptic is a well informed believer and a pessimist a well informed optimist
The most dangerous views of the world are from those who have never seen it. ~ Alexander v. Humboldt
If you want to bulls**t me please do it so that it takes me more than a minute to find out

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#6    Beany

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 06:46 PM

What I find disturbing about the global warming issue and the controversy around it is that the controversy, scientific opinions, etc. have become somewhat of a distraction from other important environmental issues, such as air & water pollution, burning coal, environmental destruction from resource extraction, water management, renewable energy, over-population, etc. Whether or not there is global warming occurring because of pollution, breathing air full of particulates is a valid health concern, as is drinking contaminated ground water, or polluting rivers, streams & oceans that are crucial components of earth's natural systems. So maybe air pollution doesn't cause global warming, that doesn't mean we can dismiss it as a serious environmental/health issue.


#7    Frank Merton

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 07:54 PM

If global warming is a distraction from other environmental issues, it should and needs to be.  I don't think however that global warming and other such issues are so easily separated.  Cleaning up pollution and measures to slow the emission of greenhouse gases go hand in hand with environmental measures like forest preservation, intelligent land use, stopping the emissions of pollutants, and so on.


#8    Big Bad Voodoo

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 08:05 PM

Posted Image

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."

#9    Frank Merton

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 08:09 PM

This looks like cherry picking?  What about the sun was measured and what is an "Arctic surface temperature anomaly?  We will have to see what others on this board say.


#10    Big Bad Voodoo

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 08:15 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 14 September 2013 - 08:09 PM, said:

This looks like cherry picking?  What about the sun was measured and what is an "Arctic surface temperature anomaly?  We will have to see what others on this board say.

Ofcourse I picked it up. :w00t: You dont expect that I upload books on UM. Its iratioanl expectation. Same as new trend "cherry picking".
Now when everybody seen it, its not cool anymore Frankie.

Big Bad Voodoo

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."

#11    Br Cornelius

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 08:49 PM

View PostBig Bad Voodoo, on 14 September 2013 - 08:05 PM, said:

Posted Image
Without a source - it would be impossible to comment on that graph.

Br Cornelius

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#12    Frank Merton

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 09:12 PM

View PostBig Bad Voodoo, on 14 September 2013 - 08:15 PM, said:

Ofcourse I picked it up. :w00t: You dont expect that I upload books on UM. Its iratioanl expectation. Same as new trend "cherry picking".
Now when everybody seen it, its not cool anymore Frankie.

Big Bad Voodoo
If its cherry picking its cherry picking.  I'm not worried about cool, I am about graphs that misrepresent things by omitting what has really been graphed.  I already know enough about the subject to recognize such propaganda.


#13    Big Bad Voodoo

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 09:16 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 14 September 2013 - 09:12 PM, said:

If its cherry picking its cherry picking.  I'm not worried about cool, I am about graphs that misrepresent things by omitting what has really been graphed.  I already know enough about the subject to recognize such propaganda.

Ofcourse I cherry picking. Otherwise we can disuss about vanilla sugar, butterflies and flowers too. But to me time is factor. I dont have time for "Once upon a time...". Obviously you have.
Propaganda is that pollution dont have nothing with global warming.
Otherwise USA would sign in Kyoto.

Big Bad Voodoo

Edited by Big Bad Voodoo, 14 September 2013 - 09:22 PM.

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."

#14    Frank Merton

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 09:25 PM

Kyoto is an irrelevant distraction.  You disappoint me a lot.


#15    Big Bad Voodoo

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Posted 14 September 2013 - 09:36 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 14 September 2013 - 09:25 PM, said:

Kyoto is an irrelevant distraction.  You disappoint me a lot.

You disapoint me long time ago by claims that we were ents, T-rex and platypus in previous lifes.

Posted Image

Big Bad Voodoo

Edited by Big Bad Voodoo, 14 September 2013 - 09:39 PM.

JFK: "And we are as a people, inherently and historically, opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths, and to secret proceedings.
For we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy..."




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