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Astronomer Seth Shostak:We'll find ET by 2037

seth shostak boing boing et chief astronomer seti institute

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#16    bison

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 08:47 PM

Dr. Shostak reports that 1 in 6 red dwarf (M class) stars are thought to have an Earth-like planet. There are 48 M class stars within about 16 light years of Earth. That implies that 8 of those stars could host life as we know it. There are 6 of this sort of star within only 9 light years. A least one of these could be Earth-like.

Edited by bison, 15 September 2013 - 08:51 PM.


#17    Star Man

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 09:35 PM

Astronomer Seth Shostak:We'll find ET by 2037, which let me understand  Dr Bruce Macabee's reply about my case on this forum http://www.unexplain...ic=173421&st=30
".........I don't know how you prove that the pictures are of extra-terrestrials, especially if they could be images distorted by diffraction and aberrations....."  that could mean all my visitor just the alien, they are not ET.      . :tu: :tu:


  


#18    Frank Merton

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 09:39 PM

View Postbison, on 15 September 2013 - 08:47 PM, said:

Dr. Shostak reports that 1 in 6 red dwarf (M class) stars are thought to have an Earth-like planet. There are 48 M class stars within about 16 light years of Earth. That implies that 8 of those stars could host life as we know it. There are 6 of this sort of star within only 9 light years. A least one of these could be Earth-like.
There is the unfortunate thing here that such a planet will be much closer to its sun than we are to ours, leading to gravitational locking.  Such stars also have much more dangerous flares -- by several orders of magnitude -- so that being close to them would be seriously problematic.


#19    seeder

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 09:41 PM

is it just me? :huh:

The England team visited an orphanage in Brazil today. “It’s heartbreaking to see their sad little faces with no hope” .....said Jose, age 6.
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#20    Spacenut56

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 09:52 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 15 September 2013 - 07:47 PM, said:

I think more likely we will supplement ourselves with machine parts.
a la the Borg???????


#21    Frank Merton

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 10:37 PM

View PostSpacenut56, on 15 September 2013 - 09:52 PM, said:

a la the Borg???????
Well maybe just things that help us like a wired in memory chip for looking things up, a wired in way of knowing where we are, a wired in internet connection, and so on.  I think these would be welcomed so long as they didn't try to control us and allowed us privacy (the ability to turn them off when we want).


#22    bison

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 12:25 AM

View PostFrank Merton, on 15 September 2013 - 09:39 PM, said:

There is the unfortunate thing here that such a planet will be much closer to its sun than we are to ours, leading to gravitational locking.  Such stars also have much more dangerous flares -- by several orders of magnitude -- so that being close to them would be seriously problematic.
Dr. Shostak referred to the first problem. It is believed that heat at the sub-solar point would drive planet-wide atmospheric circulation, and so, moderate the worst extremes of temperature. Probably the band on the planet around 90 degrees from the point directly facing the sun would have the most agreeable climate.
I understand that M class stars tend to flare when they're young, then settle down. As they're extremely long-lived, there could be ample time for life to establish itself, and evolve extensively, within this stable era.


#23    badeskov

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 12:51 AM

View Postpallidin, on 15 September 2013 - 08:35 PM, said:

Huh.

And we haven't heard from them by now?

What's so dang special about 25-year's from today?

I call total BS on this. Another "wannabe" date that will not happen.

EDIT: In other news, and to all credits, the end-of-the-world date's seem to have stopped. Well, for now.

Without being a mind reader (or admittedly having properly looked into the assumptions upon which he is placing this bet), I am guessing that he is basing it on the increase in radio sensitivity seen by SETI and a calculation of if ET is out there within a given range, then when will we reach the sensitivity required to detect him/her/it.

Just my two uneducated cents.

Cheers,
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Edited by badeskov, 16 September 2013 - 12:52 AM.

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#24    SunnyBear

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 12:55 AM

Well,IMO he is WAY off...it is not that far into the future..which 2037 isn't that far,but I'm going to say within the next 10 years..and I'm talking about REAL contact,not "we'll find an ET signal" kind of contact..radio telescopes are useless to contact advanced civilizations because they would be so far advanced they are beyond that kind of primitive communication..they would communicate on more of a quantum level I guess you could say..they would pick up radio signals,but they would most likely ignore them because they don't want to deal with civilizations that are still at the "hormonal teenager with a loaded gun" stage,which is what we are..to me,SETI is partially a good idea and partially a rotten idea..it is good to be skeptical,but the people at SETI are a bit closed minded..of course,most of them are still thinking in outmoded scientific thought(if I'm wrong on that,please post legit info that proves me wrong),and we need scientists that are wiling to "think outside the box"...think outside the current paradigm.It IS good though that they are looking,but they are looking the wrong way and with the wrong idea of communication IMO..I don't think much of Mr.Seth Shostak anyway :/


#25    seeder

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 05:04 PM

View PostSunnyBear, on 16 September 2013 - 12:55 AM, said:

Well,IMO he is WAY off...it is not that far into the future..which 2037 isn't that far,but I'm going to say within the next 10 years..and I'm talking about REAL contact,not "we'll find an ET signal" kind of contact..radio telescopes are useless to contact advanced civilizations because they would be so far advanced they are beyond that kind of primitive communication..they would communicate on more of a quantum level I guess you could say..they would pick up radio signals,but they would most likely ignore them because they don't want to deal with civilizations that are still at the "hormonal teenager with a loaded gun" stage,which is what we are..to me,SETI is partially a good idea and partially a rotten idea..it is good to be skeptical,but the people at SETI are a bit closed minded..of course,most of them are still thinking in outmoded scientific thought(if I'm wrong on that,please post legit info that proves me wrong),and we need scientists that are wiling to "think outside the box"...think outside the current paradigm.It IS good though that they are looking,but they are looking the wrong way and with the wrong idea of communication IMO..I don't think much of Mr.Seth Shostak anyway :/

how can Seti be closed minded...if theyre searching for alien life?  besides what gets missed with any kind of tech search, is any planet that has life - but no technology.

Life elsewhere might not be about advanced aliens at all. It could simply be a planet with plant life, microbial, or even animal like life forms. Europa is a good possibility in our solar system for possible aquatic life.

Its still alien of course, just not as exciting perhaps, (for some that is)


.

Edited by seeder, 16 September 2013 - 05:05 PM.

The England team visited an orphanage in Brazil today. “It’s heartbreaking to see their sad little faces with no hope” .....said Jose, age 6.
It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me... It's all the rabbit poop you stumble over on your way down...
“It's easier to fool people - than to convince them that they have been fooled.”  Mark Twain

#26    psyche101

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 07:47 AM

View Postzoser, on 15 September 2013 - 07:24 PM, said:

Mine was Fire in The Sky.  It was only later that I learned that the film makers disregarded Walton's testimony and pasted in their own version of the face to face contact.  No doubt to turn it into a horror movie rather than merely a drama.


Horror?

I found it a powerful sedative.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#27    psyche101

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 07:49 AM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 15 September 2013 - 08:22 PM, said:

Enigmatic throwaway line "We have Rovers going to Mars. They're not looking for life, but they will soon".
:unsure2:

I thought they were looking for life?

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#28    psyche101

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 07:56 AM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 15 September 2013 - 08:43 PM, said:

One question, though, about his "ETs are likely to be mega-intelligent machines" thesis; is he speculating that any ET race with super enough technology would somehow hybridise themselves so that they're partly machine? does he envisage the machines taking over? :cat: And how does he envisage discovering them? if SETI still relies on listening out for Radio signals, surely any race as super-duper advanced as he's talking about wouldn't still be using radio transmissions in frequencies we can detect, would they? :unsure2:

If we have signals that can reach 200 LY then what more is needed? If they are using radio waves at all, just the disturbance should make them noticeable, we would consider AM radio and analogue TV old hat, but that does not mean for one second that if there was an analogue signal aimed at us that we would not be able to, or simply would not pick it up.
Some people have been trying to map the brain down to extremely fine detail, and feel if they can replicate the synaptic connections that maybe we can actually transfer consciousness into a computer at the time of death. If not consciousness, a new entity that would not know different, but one cannot "exist" in a computer for ever or I am quite sure one would go insane, the next logical step would be to put this consciousness into a robot, or android.
Cyborgs don't seem like they will always be science fiction, we already have the beatless heart, an amazing leap in technology.
But still no hoverboard.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#29    psyche101

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 07:59 AM

View Postbison, on 15 September 2013 - 08:47 PM, said:

Dr. Shostak reports that 1 in 6 red dwarf (M class) stars are thought to have an Earth-like planet. There are 48 M class stars within about 16 light years of Earth. That implies that 8 of those stars could host life as we know it. There are 6 of this sort of star within only 9 light years. A least one of these could be Earth-like.


Right in the habitable Zone?

Like Mars and Venus?

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.


#30    psyche101

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Posted 17 September 2013 - 08:02 AM

View PostSpacenut56, on 15 September 2013 - 09:52 PM, said:

a la the Borg???????


A la


Posted Image


Life giver: The artificial heart uses turbines to spin the blood, unlike the pulse of a real heart Doctors at the Texas Heart Institute have already tested the artificial heart that doesn’t have a beat or produce a pulse. The new type of artificial heart uses spinning turbines that keep blood flowing at a steady pace rather than the rhythmic beat present in current implants that seek to replicate the method of a normal human heart. The new ‘centrifugal turbine heart pump’ has been tested on animals along with one successful human trial – with no ill effects so far, according to it’s inventors. The implant doesn’t have a pulse or a heartbeat and on an EKG machine the patient would appear to be flatlining. Instead the only sign of life is a faint humming sound created by the turbine, according to inventors Dr Billy Cohn and Dr Bud Frazier. Inside the institute’s animal research laboratory an 8-month-old calf named Abigail is one of the first to be treated with the device.

LINK



And yet, still no hoverboard. :(

Edited by psyche101, 17 September 2013 - 08:08 AM.

Things are what they are. - Me Reality can't be debunked. That's the beauty of it. - Capeo 'If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' - Sir Isaac Newton. "Let me repeat the lesson learned from the Sturrock scientific review panel: Pack up your old data and forget it. Ufology needs new data, new cases, new rigorous and scientific methodologies if it hopes ever to get out of its pit." Ed Stewart. Youtube is the last refuge of the ignorant and is more often used for disinformation than genuine research.  There is a REASON for PEER REVIEW... - Chrlzs. Nothing is inexplicable, just unexplained. - Sir Wearer of Hats.





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