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Will Israel Strike?


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#1    and then

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 01:55 PM

Netanyahu has long said that an Iranian bomb is an existential threat to Israel.  Obama has agreed but has restrained Israel from acting - for very good reasons.  But now that Obama has obviously decided to go the way of Syria on this issue will Bibi finally decide to go his own way?
What would be some of the repercussions if Israel struck Iran's nuclear sites?  If Iran is left to it's own course?

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#2    Norbert the Incredible

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:05 PM

Well, since the Iranian Bomb is itself an existential question at the moment, we shall just hope that all this remains a hypothetical question. What would be some of the repercussions if Israel struck Iran's nuclear sites? America would look the other way, since it'd be perfectly OK for Bibi to strike at whoever he wanted, since it's only Mad and Evil leaders that are any danger to peace and stability.

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#3    Leonardo

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:18 PM

View Postand then, on 30 September 2013 - 01:55 PM, said:

Netanyahu has long said that an Iranian bomb is an existential threat to Israel.

Well, there's your problem right there. The premise underlying the whole rationale is unsubstantiated speculation.

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#4    BarnabasCollins

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:24 PM

Not that I claim to know much about nuclear fallout from a strike, but that would be one of my initial concerns.  Would striking any such facility lead to widespread (or even localized) nuclear fallout (assuming there is nuclear material present):?


#5    Norbert the Incredible

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:27 PM

Suppose Assad had said that israel's possession of the Bomb was an existential threat to Syria; would that be a different kettle of fish? :innocent:

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#6    Norbert the Incredible

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:32 PM

View PostBarnabasCollins, on 30 September 2013 - 02:24 PM, said:

Not that I claim to know much about nuclear fallout from a strike, but that would be one of my initial concerns.  Would striking any such facility lead to widespread (or even localized) nuclear fallout (assuming there is nuclear material present):?
it's been done before, Israel took out Syria's reactor a few year's back, but I think they hadn't actually fired it up yet, but yes, surely "taking out", in that wonderfully macho phrase beloved of Leaders, a working reactor would just cause another Chernobyl.

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#7    Zaphod222

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:50 PM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 30 September 2013 - 02:32 PM, said:

it's been done before, Israel took out Syria's reactor a few year's back, but I think they hadn't actually fired it up yet, but yes, surely "taking out", in that wonderfully macho phrase beloved of Leaders, a working reactor would just cause another Chernobyl.

Apples and oranges. Taking out one single site in Syria next door is an entirely different thing from taking out the massive, strongly armoured, and widely distributed Iranian nuke program.

Much as the anti-Israel crowd likes to paint Israel as some sort of military superpower, they will not take out Iran´s nuke program for the simple reason that they can not.

And even if they tried, the current American White House crew would sabotage their attempt by alerting the Iranian authorities.

So this is one particular myth that you can bury.

Edited by Zaphod222, 30 September 2013 - 02:50 PM.

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#8    Zaphod222

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:55 PM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 30 September 2013 - 02:05 PM, said:

Well, since the Iranian Bomb is itself an existential question at the moment, we shall just hope that all this remains a hypothetical question. What would be some of the repercussions if Israel struck Iran's nuclear sites? America would look the other way, since it'd be perfectly OK for Bibi to strike at whoever he wanted,

Complete and utter BS. Obama has made it perfectly clear on which side he is, and that is not Israel`s side.
Remember the last time Israel`s military had come up with a possible attack plan by using Azerbeijan airfields? The moment that news reached the White House, Obama made sure to trumpet it around the world, so that the Iranian mullahs would be alerted. And they were.

Fat chance that Barrack Hussein will allow an an attack on Allahs bomb program in Iran. You guys should really stop drinking that cool aid that is spouted on islamist and leftist propaganda sites.

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#9    Zaphod222

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 02:58 PM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 30 September 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:

Suppose Assad had said that israel's possession of the Bomb was an existential threat to Syria; would that be a different kettle of fish? :innocent:

All the islamists and leftist loonies keep saying exactly that, but that does not make it true. Israel did not violate the NPT to build its nuke, and Israel has NEVER threatened to wipe another country off the map.

Take your stupid one-bit slogans back to whatever dank hole you got them from.

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#10    Norbert the Incredible

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 03:21 PM

View PostZaphod222, on 30 September 2013 - 02:58 PM, said:

All the islamists and leftist loonies keep saying exactly that, but that does not make it true. Israel did not violate the NPT to build its nuke, and Israel has NEVER threatened to wipe another country off the map.

Take your stupid one-bit slogans back to whatever dank hole you got them from.
Dear oh lord, you're very angry, aren't you? But you don't at all resort to over the top rhetoric, i see, which is good, at least.

Edited by Colonel Rhuairidh, 30 September 2013 - 03:26 PM.

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#11    shaddow134

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 03:35 PM

View PostZaphod222, on 30 September 2013 - 02:58 PM, said:

and Israel has NEVER threatened to wipe another country off the map.



Neither did Iran as I am aware,misquoted by the US media.

Oops there I go again being all Islamist and left wing. :tsu:

Edited by shaddow134, 30 September 2013 - 03:36 PM.

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#12    Leonardo

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 04:05 PM

View PostZaphod222, on 30 September 2013 - 02:58 PM, said:

All the islamists and leftist loonies keep saying exactly that, but that does not make it true. Israel did not violate the NPT to build its nuke, and Israel has NEVER threatened to wipe another country off the map.

Take your stupid one-bit slogans back to whatever dank hole you got them from.

Quite the red-herring there, Zaphod.

Israel isn't party to the NPT, so can't violate a treaty it's never signed. That doesn't negate from the point the Colonel was making.

As for...

Quote

...Israel has NEVER threatened to wipe another country off the map.

...Israel bases its territorial status on scriptural sources. Since those sources also reference Israel indeed "wiping other nations off the map" it can be fairly claimed they have not only made that threat, but carried it out.

Edited by Leonardo, 30 September 2013 - 04:07 PM.

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#13    Kaa-Tzik

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 09:41 PM

I think we should all be far more concerned about a country that has nukes and is dangerously unstable, Pakistan.


#14    and then

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 01:31 AM

View PostKaa-Tzik, on 30 September 2013 - 09:41 PM, said:

I think we should all be far more concerned about a country that has nukes and is dangerously unstable, Pakistan.
Pakistan seems to be held in check by India for the present, though it's possible their Islamist tendencies might someday lead them to supply a weapon to a splinter group.  Nuclear materials are traceable to their source of fuel though and if a device was traced back to them then Islamabad would be a glowing ember within a week of the event.  I think Israel will strike ONLY if the rhetoric Netanyahu has been engaged in for so long is actually held to be true by the Israelis.  If it is only bluster being used to push the US into doing the job for them then things will quieten down and nothing will happen.  But if the Israelis actually feel their existence is threatened I believe they could not only strike alone, they could do serious damage to Iran's program - and wreak havoc in the region if counter attacked by Hizballah and Hamas.  
The point of the post is to explore what repercussions would follow.  I think a regional war would occur with massive losses to southern Lebanon, Syria and even Egypt if they got involved.  Israel would suffer extensively as well.  Thousands of deaths probably.  But Iran and the world would be served notice that Israel has every intention of staying in the neighborhood.

  We've cast the world, we've set the stage,
  for what could be, the darkest age...
“This is like playing poker with a guy who cheated you twice before. You know who does that, a moron.

#15    and then

and then

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 01:35 AM

View PostLeonardo, on 30 September 2013 - 04:05 PM, said:

Quite the red-herring there, Zaphod.

Israel isn't party to the NPT, so can't violate a treaty it's never signed. That doesn't negate from the point the Colonel was making.

As for...



...Israel bases its territorial status on scriptural sources. Since those sources also reference Israel indeed "wiping other nations off the map" it can be fairly claimed they have not only made that threat, but carried it out.
The state of Israel came into existence due to the tinkering of international consensus.  They expanded their territories because their new neighbors openly attempted to "push them into the sea"  If those neighbors try it again,  Israel will become even larger.  At least, that has been the pattern.

  We've cast the world, we've set the stage,
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“This is like playing poker with a guy who cheated you twice before. You know who does that, a moron.




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