Jump to content




Welcome to Unexplained Mysteries! Please sign in or create an account to start posting and to access a host of extra features.


- - - - -

Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2032

asteroids 2013 tv135

  • Please log in to reply
28 replies to this topic

#1    Waspie_Dwarf

Waspie_Dwarf

    Space Cadet

  • 32,144 posts
  • Joined:03 Mar 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bexleyheath, Kent, UK

  • We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

    Oscar Wilde

Posted 18 October 2013 - 01:26 PM

400-Meter-Wide Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2032


RIA Novosti said:

MOSCOW, October 17 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian astronomers have discovered a large asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032, though the impact risk is minimal, according to current estimates.

The 410-meter-wide (1,350-foot) minor planet, which has been named 2013 TV135, was first discovered last weekend by the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory in southern Ukraine, according to the International Astronomer Union’s Minor Planet Center

Posted Image Read more...


"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

Posted Image
Click on button

#2    Waspie_Dwarf

Waspie_Dwarf

    Space Cadet

  • 32,144 posts
  • Joined:03 Mar 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bexleyheath, Kent, UK

  • We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

    Oscar Wilde

Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:09 PM

Asteroid 2013 TV135 – A Reality Check


www.nasa.gov said:

A Newly discovered asteroid 2013 TV135 made a close approach to Earth on Sept. 16, when it came within about 4.2 million miles (6.7 million kilometers). The asteroid is initially estimated to be about 1,300 feet (400 meters) in size and its orbit carries it as far out as about three quarters of the distance to Jupiter's orbit and as close to the sun as Earth's orbit. It was discovered on Oct. 8, 2013, by astronomers working at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory in Ukraine. As of Oct. 14, asteroid 2013 TV135 is one of 10,332 near-Earth objects that have been discovered.

Posted Image Read more...


"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

Posted Image
Click on button

#3    krypter3

krypter3

    Extraterrestrial Entity

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 420 posts
  • Joined:10 Feb 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

  • “My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places.” A.A Milne

Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:03 PM

If you think about it on a cosmic scale...1 in like 63 thousand chance is pretty bad odds o.O


#4    Twinkle Arora is back

Twinkle Arora is back

    Ectoplasmic Residue

  • Member
  • Pip
  • 202 posts
  • Joined:10 Dec 2010
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:West Lafayette, Indiana, USA

  • Mythical Awareness

Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:53 PM

"With more observations, I fully expect we will be able to significantly reduce, or rule out entirely, any impact probability for the foreseeable future."

What has science come to, setting a result before calculating and trying to achieve that result.
Why not say,"We will be able to more accurately tell about the trajectory and the probability of collision, which may further reduce."


#5    Hazzard

Hazzard

    Stellar Black Hole

  • Member
  • 11,757 posts
  • Joined:25 Aug 2005
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Inside Voyager 1.

  • Being skeptical of the paranormal is a good thing.

Posted 20 October 2013 - 07:32 PM

This is a none-event. And a 1300ft meteor is hardley a "global killer" even if it did hit.

Glad we are looking up though.


#6    Waspie_Dwarf

Waspie_Dwarf

    Space Cadet

  • 32,144 posts
  • Joined:03 Mar 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bexleyheath, Kent, UK

  • We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

    Oscar Wilde

Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:36 PM

View PostTwinkle Arora is back, on 20 October 2013 - 03:53 PM, said:

What has science come to, setting a result before calculating and trying to achieve that result.
Calculating a result is EXACTLY what scientists have done. That result is that we have a one in 63,000 chance of being hit. Do you think this number was just pulled out of thin air?

Astronomers know that, until they have more precise measurements, that there is a degree of uncertainty as to exactly where that asteroid will be in 2032. They also know what that level of uncertainty is. They can, therefore predict where the asteroid will be ± a known amount.

What do you suggest they do, wait until after an object hits us to work out the hazard? If we are to defend ourselves against such threats we need to know which objects are actually hazardous. If the probability of an impact is zero then it can be ignored. This object currently has a small but finite possibility of hitting us in 2032 and therefore is an object which warrants further observations.

View PostTwinkle Arora is back, on 20 October 2013 - 03:53 PM, said:

Why not say,"We will be able to more accurately tell about the trajectory and the probability of collision, which may further reduce."
They DID say that. You even quoted them as saying that. What is your point? Saying that they maybe able to further reduce the odds of an impact is NOT incompatible with quoting the chances of an impacted, based on currently available data, as being 1 in 63,000.

View PostHazzard, on 20 October 2013 - 07:32 PM, said:

This is a none-event.
Given that the best astronomers in the world can't guarantee this you are certain how exactly?

View PostHazzard, on 20 October 2013 - 07:32 PM, said:

And a 1300ft meteor is hardley a "global killer" even if it did hit.

Such an object would just release energy close to 50,000 MT of TNT (just about 3 million times more powerful than the nuclear weapon dropped on Hiroshima). It would cause a crater 15km in diameter. The death toll would be in the tens or hundreds of millions instantly, with many millions dying as a result of the "nuclear winter" that would follow.

It may not cause the extinction of mankind but it would decimate the population.

Some "none event"!

"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

Posted Image
Click on button

#7    highdesert50

highdesert50

    Remote Viewer

  • Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 615 posts
  • Joined:09 Jul 2010
  • Gender:Male

Posted 21 October 2013 - 12:05 AM

Perhaps to allay some asteroid impact concerns, last month Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz signed an agreement with Russia for new collaboration between nuclear weapons scientists in everything from plutonium-fueled reactors to lasers and explosives research.


#8    bassai26

bassai26

    Ectoplasmic Residue

  • Member
  • Pip
  • 143 posts
  • Joined:04 Aug 2013
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ethereal Plane

  • "Nobody can choose which star to be born under"

Posted 21 October 2013 - 11:38 AM

never underestimate the remaining .002 percent


#9    Maars

Maars

    Alien Embryo

  • Member
  • Pip
  • 28 posts
  • Joined:19 Apr 2012
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:South Africa

Posted 21 October 2013 - 12:58 PM

View Postbassai26, on 21 October 2013 - 11:38 AM, said:

never underestimate the remaining .002 percent

That's what I am thiinking as well.


#10    Waspie_Dwarf

Waspie_Dwarf

    Space Cadet

  • 32,144 posts
  • Joined:03 Mar 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bexleyheath, Kent, UK

  • We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

    Oscar Wilde

Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:18 PM

View Postbassai26, on 21 October 2013 - 11:38 AM, said:

never underestimate the remaining .002 percent

We human beings have a very poor grasp of risk and hazard.

If someone was to try and build a factory which had a 1 in 63,000 chance of having an accident that would result in the deaths of 100,000,000 people it would never be allowed to be built. Yet an asteroid with the same odds is dismissed as a non-event.

"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

Posted Image
Click on button

#11    freetoroam

freetoroam

    Honourary member of the UM asylum

  • Member
  • 7,304 posts
  • Joined:11 Nov 2012
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:rivers and canals of England and Wales.

  • If you didn't see it with your own eyes, or hear it with your own ears, don't invent it with your small mind and share it with your big mouth!

Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:20 PM

Nice to see they are taking no chances this time.

The object should be easily observable in the coming months and once additional observations are provided to the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass., the initial orbit calculations will be improved and the most likely result will be a dramatic reduction, or complete elimination, of any risk of Earth impact.  
"To put it another way, that puts the current probability of no impact in 2032 at about 99.998 percent,"

http://www.nasa.gov/...ml#.UmExLxD1zig

I like the positive attitude, can they guarantee this though? NOT if its a "most likely", but trust they will keep up informed.

In an ideal World a law would be passed were NO guns were allowed and all those out there destroyed, trouble is the law makers are not going to take a risk of trying to pass that without making sure they are armed first.

#12    Waspie_Dwarf

Waspie_Dwarf

    Space Cadet

  • 32,144 posts
  • Joined:03 Mar 2006
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bexleyheath, Kent, UK

  • We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

    Oscar Wilde

Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:43 PM

View Postfreetoroam, on 21 October 2013 - 01:20 PM, said:

Nice to see they are taking no chances this time.
I'm not sure what you mean by this. This is the same calculation done for EVERY NEO asteroid when they are detected.

View Postfreetoroam, on 21 October 2013 - 01:20 PM, said:

I like the positive attitude, can they guarantee this though? NOT if its a "most likely", but trust they will keep up informed.
Guarantee what exactly?
That there is a 1 in 63,000 chance that it will hit us? They are 100% certain of that.

That it won't hit us? No they can't guarantee it, that is why they have given the odds of an impact.

Can they guarantee that the odds will fall with more observations? Of course not, if they could they wouldn't need further observations.

"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space." - The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy - Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001

Posted Image
Click on button

#13    Stegosaurus

Stegosaurus

    Alien Embryo

  • Member
  • Pip
  • 12 posts
  • Joined:10 Oct 2013
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:Las Vegas, NV

  • "Equipped with his five senses, man explores the universe around him and calls the adventure Science."

    — Edwin Hubble

Posted 21 October 2013 - 06:44 PM

Oh goodness.


#14    33SD

33SD

    Alien Embryo

  • Member
  • Pip
  • 8 posts
  • Joined:30 Sep 2013

Posted 24 October 2013 - 05:57 AM

I made a mistake, sorry.

Edited by 33SD, 24 October 2013 - 06:13 AM.


#15    33SD

33SD

    Alien Embryo

  • Member
  • Pip
  • 8 posts
  • Joined:30 Sep 2013

Posted 24 October 2013 - 06:01 AM

You know like when someone creates a bunch words by chopping them up,moving them like three-card monte and really makes them sound like,like something but they're not!the sentences have a beet but it means nothing! Oh, do not mesmerize me with a paragraph. Same thing, only difference would be the reward. The 3-card most likely has unresolved mental issues. These people on the other hand,went to college for this so I would guess funding would be a priority.Aye,if one creates something that with mere words is worth a few mil in grants. It's possible that I will not be around to find out what it feels like to get smashed by an meteor.I'd rather wait for Jesus.Why would I care? It's good reading though.

Edited by 33SD, 24 October 2013 - 06:07 AM.





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users