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Why does Jordan want to keep the IDF?


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#1    and then

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 07:11 PM

http://www.timesofis...-jordan-valley/

I saw this and it occurred that it should be the last thing Hussein would want UNLESS... maybe he sees the Palestinians as a threat of some kind?

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#2    Yes_Man

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 07:48 PM

Jordon is an ally of the West, and generally both nations have good terms with each other


#3    Valdemar the Great

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 07:56 PM

Since the IDF is by far the best military force in the M. East, and certainly the most experienced, I can see how a sufficiently pragmatic leader might be prepared to put long held grudges/principles aside if it meant that they might be in a position to be of use if someone who they might not altogether trust was to turn out to be not altogether trustworthy.

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#4    Kaa-Tzik

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 06:48 PM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 08 December 2013 - 07:56 PM, said:

Since the IDF is by far the best military force in the M. East, and certainly the most experienced, I can see how a sufficiently pragmatic leader might be prepared to put long held grudges/principles aside if it meant that they might be in a position to be of use if someone who they might not altogether trust was to turn out to be not altogether trustworthy.
Certainly IDF has a huge reputation, and well won. But I wonder if these days it would still hold true. remember the debacle in Lebanon in 2006, and they even had a few Merkava IV knocked out by lowly RPG. Been a long time since IDF did any serious fighting against a regular army, 40 years and they were nearly beaten except for some luck, one Egyptian mistake, and General Israel Tal. By the time Syrian situation is resolved in favor of Assad, and it will be, then they will have the experience. Maybe not in armored thrusts and airial combat, but the guys will know how to fight. IDF only trains, and no matter how good, it is very poor substitute for actual combat. In combat they may hesitate before killing their first enemy, it is a big psychological step to do this (button pressing from a distance excepted), Syrian soldiers will not hestitate, and will have high moral after victory over the terrorists. I do not of course suggest Syria will attack Israel, I suggest this will never happen unless they are first attacked by Israel, a more likely possibility.


#5    Yamato

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 07:19 PM

Principle:  People whose civil liberties are being denied should be a threat to those denying them.  

Oh but let's engage in groupthink mentality and a million rhetorical excuses between this group and that country and that religion and that ethnic group and history from 700 years ago and Bible stories from 3000 years ago like we don't have any principle at all.  Hey aren't Jordanians MOOOOOZLIMS?  And they're brown Arabs (Semites) too...ewwwwwwwwwww.   Can't let the brown Semites have civil liberties, no!  Only the white European ones.

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#6    and then

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 11:49 PM

View PostKaa-Tzik, on 11 December 2013 - 06:48 PM, said:

Certainly IDF has a huge reputation, and well won. But I wonder if these days it would still hold true. remember the debacle in Lebanon in 2006, and they even had a few Merkava IV knocked out by lowly RPG. Been a long time since IDF did any serious fighting against a regular army, 40 years and they were nearly beaten except for some luck, one Egyptian mistake, and General Israel Tal. By the time Syrian situation is resolved in favor of Assad, and it will be, then they will have the experience. Maybe not in armored thrusts and airial combat, but the guys will know how to fight. IDF only trains, and no matter how good, it is very poor substitute for actual combat. In combat they may hesitate before killing their first enemy, it is a big psychological step to do this (button pressing from a distance excepted), Syrian soldiers will not hestitate, and will have high moral after victory over the terrorists. I do not of course suggest Syria will attack Israel, I suggest this will never happen unless they are first attacked by Israel, a more likely possibility.
It's an excellent point you make about the IDF soldiers potentially hesitating.  They fight somewhat hamstrung due to the fear of being called "criminals" for anything they might do.  That hesitation in Lebanon made that little dustup far worse for them than it had to be.  They will have to recognize that regardless their attempts they will be blamed so they need to just get the job done.  If the enemy is using a civilian home for cover or hiding missile firing positions in mosques then homes and mosques are legitimate targets.  Frankly a great portion of southern Lebanon should be reduced to rubble if such a conflict flares again.  Hezbollah is part of the government of Lebanon therefore it is LEBANON Israel will be at war with.

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#7    Mystic Crusader

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 12:12 AM

View PostYamato, on 11 December 2013 - 07:19 PM, said:

Principle:  People whose civil liberties are being denied should be a threat to those denying them.

I agree 100% with you on that.

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#8    and then

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 12:53 AM

View PostMystic Crusader, on 12 December 2013 - 12:12 AM, said:

I agree 100% with you on that.
Yeah, Uncle Yam is all about civil liberties for Palestinians.  P'raps if they'd stop trying to kill Israelis they could have an easier time with that... nah, it will never catch on  :passifier:

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#9    RavenHawk

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:36 AM

View Postand then, on 08 December 2013 - 07:11 PM, said:

I saw this and it occurred that it should be the last thing Hussein would want UNLESS... maybe he sees the Palestinians as a threat of some kind?
The Palestinian was a threat to the Hashemite Kingdom.  And in 1970, Black September occurred.  The two sides have merged into one since then.  Although now, I havenít seen any indication of Hamas or Hezbollah influence returning in any strength.  But I guess it is always just under the surface.  King Abdullah is always at ends with many of the nobels.

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#10    RavenHawk

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:17 AM

View PostKaa-Tzik, on 11 December 2013 - 06:48 PM, said:

Certainly IDF has a huge reputation, and well won. But I wonder if these days it would still hold true.
Absolutely it is.

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remember the debacle in Lebanon in 2006,
Debacle?  Thatís wishful thinking.  The IDF hit almost every target they went after.  They had totally crippled the country and isolated pockets of Hezbollah and segregated the civilians to keep them out of harms way.  They could go just about anywhere with impunity.  The intel they gained alone was valuable.  We may never know what all was done or found.  And they could easily do the same thing to any neighboring country.  If a nation like Saudi Arabia decided to help, Israel could do the very same to Iran.  But by the same token, Saudi Arabia would pull their support right before Israel could claim total victory.  Saudi Arabia is still Muslim.  Theyíd want to see Iran taken down a few pegs, but not conquered.

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and they even had a few Merkava IV knocked out by lowly RPG. Been a long time since IDF did any serious fighting against a regular army, 40 years and they were nearly beaten except for some luck, one Egyptian mistake, and General Israel Tal.
In any conflict, it is normal to lose units even by lowly RPGs.  Probably lose more from friendly fire and accidents.  It has been a long time but vigilance is a good replacement to maintain the quality of the army.  The IDF was a far way from being beaten.  But please, believe what you want, Israelís enemies arenít underestimating them.  At least they shouldnít be.

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By the time Syrian situation is resolved in favor of Assad, and it will be, then they will have the experience. Maybe not in armored thrusts and airial combat, but the guys will know how to fight.
If that were true, without the armor and command of the air, Assad will be looking for Saddamís spider hole.

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IDF only trains, and no matter how good, it is very poor substitute for actual combat. In combat they may hesitate before killing their first enemy, it is a big psychological step to do this (button pressing from a distance excepted), Syrian soldiers will not hestitate, and will have high moral after victory over the terrorists.
There is no substitute for combat experience but it doesnít take long to gain it.  In combat the edge goes to the better trained and disciplined army and good leadership.  Add the superiority of the technology (armor, air cover, intel/surveillance, and electronic countermeasures) and it can overcome superiority in numbers provided the tactics and leadership are superior too.  Israel has this.

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I do not of course suggest Syria will attack Israel, I suggest this will never happen unless they are first attacked by Israel, a more likely possibility.
Israel wonít attack unless Syria threatens attack.  And I would guess that Israel has informants on the inside of the Syrian war machine and will be in position to give a heads up.

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#11    Frank Merton

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:22 AM

The Islam in Saudi Arabia and the Islam in Iran are not the same but long-standing ideological enemies.  The problem with an Israeli-Saudi alliance is that it is out of the question.  What they tend to do is ignore each other and effectively work toward the same goals (Israeli skill and manpower, Saudi money) through the United States, but Obama has proved to be kinda like Carter and undependable to both of them.


#12    RavenHawk

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:38 AM

View PostFrank Merton, on 12 December 2013 - 03:22 AM, said:

The Islam in Saudi Arabia and the Islam in Iran are not the same but long-standing ideological enemies.  
That is correct.  Just because they are both Muslim doesnít mean anything.  One is Sunni, the other Shiite.  One is Arab, the other Persian.  Saudi Arabia is perhaps closer to Israel than Iran.

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The problem with an Israeli-Saudi alliance is that it is out of the question.  What they tend to do is ignore each other and effectively work toward the same goals (Israeli skill and manpower, Saudi money) through the United States, but Obama has proved to be kinda like Carter and undependable to both of them.
Maybe in times past I would agree but today is different.  Necessity makes for strange bedfellows.  It depends on how long either can wait for Obama to leave office.  Iranís nukes can also be used against Saudi Arabia.  As you said, there is no love lost between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  If Saudi Arabia feels threatened enough, they may just approach Israel.  Iím sure that there are secret, low level talks going on with that in mind.

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#13    and then

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 05:11 AM

View PostRavenHawk, on 12 December 2013 - 03:38 AM, said:

That is correct.  Just because they are both Muslim doesn't mean anything.  One is Sunni, the other Shiite.  One is Arab, the other Persian.  Saudi Arabia is perhaps closer to Israel than Iran.


Maybe in times past I would agree but today is different.  Necessity makes for strange bedfellows.  It depends on how long either can wait for Obama to leave office.  Iran's nukes can also be used against Saudi Arabia.  As you said, there is no love lost between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  If Saudi Arabia feels threatened enough, they may just approach Israel.  I'm sure that there are secret, low level talks going on with that in mind.
Unfortunately the common denominator here is a shockingly inept US president.  It's scary how quickly things can go so badly due to the choices of an apathetic population in this country.  This guy is so wrong headed we may blunder into a world war because of his thuggish outlook.

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#14    Valdemar the Great

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 07:56 AM

View Postand then, on 12 December 2013 - 05:11 AM, said:

Unfortunately the common denominator here is a shockingly inept US president.  It's scary how quickly things can go so badly due to the choices of an apathetic population in this country.  This guy is so wrong headed we may blunder into a world war because of his thuggish outlook.
His thuggish outlook? I thought you were all for intervention in Syria?

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#15    and then

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:19 PM

View PostColonel Rhuairidh, on 12 December 2013 - 07:56 AM, said:

His thuggish outlook? I thought you were all for intervention in Syria?
I was and am all about decrying the butchery that goes on there because it is inhuman in the extreme and it will certainly spread if not contained.  I am not nor ever have been for putting boots on the ground there nor supplying any weapons stronger than rifles or MG's.  Destroying Assad's air force would have been nice - it would have leveled the playing field but the truth is there would be no winner that would not then attack Israel and the west -all Muslim don't ya know?  And Obama being thuggish is not at all limited to his approach to the M.E. - look at how he deals with anyone who attempts to derail his agenda.

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