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The NEXT Lebanon War


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#1    and then

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 05:25 AM

http://www.jpost.com...al-areas-339773

Apparently the IDF chief is preparing the world for potentially massive civilian casualties should Hezbollah launch a massive missile attack from Lebanese soil again.  In short, Israel knows where most of missiles are located and knows that civilians are in many cases living above and below the firing positions.  So the choice is to save Lebanese civilians or Israeli civilians.  The Lebanese are frankly being warned in advance to evacuate or die.  I think the world is pushing Israel into a corner and this next war will push them harder because no matter how many advance warnings are given, Israel will still be blamed completely no matter the circumstances.  When absolutely no incentive is left to moderate their behavior, why SHOULD the IDF refrain?

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#2    Yamato

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 06:29 AM

Israel doesn't get blamed at all.   Show me these infamous media articles from US media sources "blaming Israel completely".   Can you even find one?    What a false premise that is, good heavens!

"The power to declare war, including the power of judging the causes of war, is fully and exclusively vested in the Legislature.  The Executive has no right, in any case, to decide the question" ~ James Madison
"Peace cannot be achieved by force, only by understanding."  ~ Albert Einstein
"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela
"I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.  Your Christians are so unlike your Christ." ~ Mahatma Gandhi

#3    Yamato

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 06:42 AM

Don't worry folks, Hezbollah will be there, to defend Lebanon engage in terrorism once again.

When they showed they could fight the IDF and at the very least, win the political/psy battle for their efforts, I believe that was one of the biggest drivers of the "Arab Spring".   Arabs didn't have to feel as afraid of Israel's government anymore.   And as well, Arabs didn't have to be as afraid of their own governments either.

I think one of the consequences of the Arab Spring is that Israel's next war, this time using the US against Iran, got taken off stage and ultimately derailed.   So I think the revolutions benefited the US, but not Israel.  It's interesting to see developments like that which rattle the bonds of the Establishment.   This is one of those major historical events that didn't sit well with the world's sticky and stubborn old-guard alliances.

"The power to declare war, including the power of judging the causes of war, is fully and exclusively vested in the Legislature.  The Executive has no right, in any case, to decide the question" ~ James Madison
"Peace cannot be achieved by force, only by understanding."  ~ Albert Einstein
"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela
"I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.  Your Christians are so unlike your Christ." ~ Mahatma Gandhi

#4    Frank Merton

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 06:50 AM

Hezbollah is sworn to the destruction of Israel; Israel is not sworn to the destruction of Lebanon.  Where the blame lies is not so hard except for the chronically ---.


#5    and then

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 07:11 AM

View PostYamato, on 30 January 2014 - 06:29 AM, said:

Israel doesn't get blamed at all.   Show me these infamous media articles from US media sources "blaming Israel completely".   Can you even find one? What a false premise that is, good heavens!
Perhaps you can show me the nations of the UN who actively support Israel - other than Canada and until recently the US?  The fact that no active, biting sanctions have begun yet is due to the US frowning on that kind of treatment of our ally.  But Obama still has 3 years left, doesn't he?  And this thread is about Israel's military leadership OPENLY warning Hezbollah of what will happen if they choose to attack.  The idea that Hezbollah beat the IDF is ridiculous.  The IDF beat the IDF by not using the force required to do the job.  The Hezbollah has grown quite sophisticated and they have over 100,000 missiles to use against Israel this time.  If Israel does not strike back with maximum force in a short time then their casualty rate could be enormous.  If I were a south Lebanon villager or a citizen of Beirut and I had a militia firing position in one of my bedrooms - I think I'd bug out when the shooting starts.  They have been warned.

  We've cast the world, we've set the stage,
  for what could be, the darkest age...
“This is like playing poker with a guy who cheated you twice before. You know who does that, a moron.

#6    Yamato

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 08:30 AM

View PostFrank Merton, on 30 January 2014 - 06:50 AM, said:

Hezbollah is sworn to the destruction of Israel; Israel is not sworn to the destruction of Lebanon.  Where the blame lies is not so hard except for the chronically ---.
Likud is sworn to the destruction of Palestine, so what's the difference?   Why should your thugs get preferential treatment over their thugs?  

View Postand then, on 30 January 2014 - 07:11 AM, said:

Perhaps you can show me the nations of the UN who actively support Israel - other than Canada and until recently the US?  The fact that no active, biting sanctions have begun yet is due to the US frowning on that kind of treatment of our ally.  But Obama still has 3 years left, doesn't he?  And this thread is about Israel's military leadership OPENLY warning Hezbollah of what will happen if they choose to attack.  The idea that Hezbollah beat the IDF is ridiculous.  The IDF beat the IDF by not using the force required to do the job.  The Hezbollah has grown quite sophisticated and they have over 100,000 missiles to use against Israel this time.  If Israel does not strike back with maximum force in a short time then their casualty rate could be enormous.  If I were a south Lebanon villager or a citizen of Beirut and I had a militia firing position in one of my bedrooms - I think I'd bug out when the shooting starts.  They have been warned.
So you acknowledge the mainstream media blackout in the US on this issue.

If what you say is true, then I'm glad the world isn't beholden to this ill-ended bedding between the US and Israel.   It gives me hope for the world frankly.   As for Hezbollah, getting an opponent to lose a fight himself more than by fighting him directly sounds a lot like what Bruce Lee taught.

"The power to declare war, including the power of judging the causes of war, is fully and exclusively vested in the Legislature.  The Executive has no right, in any case, to decide the question" ~ James Madison
"Peace cannot be achieved by force, only by understanding."  ~ Albert Einstein
"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela
"I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.  Your Christians are so unlike your Christ." ~ Mahatma Gandhi

#7    and then

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 01:11 PM

View PostYamato, on 30 January 2014 - 08:30 AM, said:

Likud is sworn to the destruction of Palestine, so what's the difference?   Why should your thugs get preferential treatment over their thugs?  


So you acknowledge the mainstream media blackout in the US on this issue.

If what you say is true, then I'm glad the world isn't beholden to this ill-ended bedding between the US and Israel.   It gives me hope for the world frankly.   As for Hezbollah, getting an opponent to lose a fight himself more than by fighting him directly sounds a lot like what Bruce Lee taught.
Problem in the real world though is that there are huge numbers of Lebanese women, children old and infirm who will suffer because these "men" for Hezbollah don't mind hiding behind them to kill Jews.  It was a mistake to try to shield them the first time.  The next time it cannot happen or Israel would suffer thousands of dead and wounded.  Rocket barrages with Fajr 5's and Fateh's would cause a tremendous amount of harm.  When the last Lebanon war began there were estimated to be 40,000 missiles in south Lebanon.  Today they think it's closer to 130,000.  It's been about 7 years since the truce was signed - obliging the blue helmets to stop the addition of new weapons in their area of patrol.  Says all one needs to hear about the efficacy of a UN protection force.

  We've cast the world, we've set the stage,
  for what could be, the darkest age...
“This is like playing poker with a guy who cheated you twice before. You know who does that, a moron.

#8    jeem

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 04:15 PM

View PostFrank Merton, on 30 January 2014 - 06:50 AM, said:

Hezbollah is sworn to the destruction of Israel; Israel is not sworn to the destruction of Lebanon.  Where the blame lies is not so hard except for the chronically ---.
Israel don't really need to sworn .They are already doing this

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#9    RavenHawk

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 07:39 PM

View PostYamato, on 30 January 2014 - 06:42 AM, said:

When they showed they could fight the IDF and at the very least, win the political/psy battle for their efforts, I believe that was one of the biggest drivers of the "Arab Spring".   Arabs didn't have to feel as afraid of Israel's government anymore.   And as well, Arabs didn't have to be as afraid of their own governments either.
This is true that Hezbollah won the political battle only because IsraelĎs mission was not the destruction of Hezbollah and they werenít prepared for the number of civilian casualties that would have occurred.  Israel was able to accomplish everything they set out to do.  It was primarily to gather intel.  You know that was successful because a few months later, Syriaís nuclear reactor went missing.  Israel was able to isolate the entire country, knocking out roads, rail, runways, communications, command and control with very little loss of life.  This kept civilians from clogging escape routes and out of harm.  Kept the Lebanese military out of the way and kept Hezbollah isolated and sequestered.  I donít think Israel realized how entrenched Hezbollah was in with the civilian population.  Now that they know the extent, they are prepared to go after Hezbollah.  This time you will probably see all roads but one blown up as an escape route for civilians to flee.  The IDF will give civilians every chance to get out of the way.  Whatever confidence that Hezbollah may have had in repelling Israel will be soon forgotten.  Field commanders probably had their forces poised for the coup de gr‚ce but the intel was showing too many civilians in the kill zone and the decision was made to pull back.  The IDF had delivered a devastating blow.  Killing more civilians would not prove anything.  But now the warning has been ignored so Israel will be free to finish the job.

But basing the ďArab SpringĒ on a false tactical (at best) victory in 2006 is so much pure unadulterated BULL!  What does Yemen or even Tunisia care for the Palestinian?  What do the Egyptian people fear from Israel?  If Israel attacks Egypt, it will be the military it attacks.  Israel is not equipped to conquer nations.  Israel will go after threats and thatís it.  If Israel was intent on conquering her neighbors, she probably would have done it already.  But thatís the deal, Israel is not her neighbors.

What concerns Israel right now is Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran.  They probably have several plans in place covering various scenarios.  Between the IAFs Eitams and NATO/US AWACS which are up constantly with DPS support, Israel should have enough advanced warning to initiate any of their plans.  Taking out the S-300s was probably a prelude to action against Hezbollah.  Israel probably wanted to take them out before the Olympics.

Quote

I think one of the consequences of the Arab Spring is that Israel's next war, this time using the US against Iran, got taken off stage and ultimately derailed.   So I think the revolutions benefited the US, but not Israel.  It's interesting to see developments like that which rattle the bonds of the Establishment.   This is one of those major historical events that didn't sit well with the world's sticky and stubborn old-guard alliances.
Well, that would depend on the belligerents; otherwise that is just so much Bullcrap.  Whatís this ďBonds of EstablishmentĒ?  Iíll tell you what it is.  It is what allows you to sleep in your bed safe and secure at night.  And I guess you are blind to a ďBonds of EstablishmentĒ in the Muslim world that would destroy Israel.  Youíre ok with that one getting stronger.  You just donít realize the clash of cultures that go on constantly and that that endangers the Bonds of Establishment that keeps you safe.  What you donít realize is that the outcome of the Lebanon War in 2006 was insignificant in the strategic standing.  We just have to realize that you are only reaching with your hatred of Israel and of this country.  The consequences of the Arab Spring are mixed at best.  The pangs of freedom are surely stirring but suppressed within the Ummah.  The Islamic world is still disjointed.

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#10    jeem

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 12:46 PM

View PostRavenHawk, on 31 January 2014 - 07:39 PM, said:

  Israel is not equipped to conquer nations.  Israel will go after threats and that's it.  If Israel was intent on conquering her neighbors, she probably would have done it already.  But that's the deal, Israel is not her neighbors.




Around 1928, Shabtai Levi, a land purchasing agent for Baron de Rothschild wrote in his memoirs, “He (the Baron) advised me to carry on in similar activities, but it is better, he said, not to transfer the Arabs to Syria and Transjordan, as these are part of the Land of Israel, but to Mesopotamia (Iraq), He added that in these cases he would be ready to send the Arabs, at his expense, new agricultural machines, and agricultural advisers.”
You see they do have the intent to conquer their neighbors.
Any way I am expecting an invitation from you to a thread where we can continue our exchange

Edited by jeem, 01 February 2014 - 12:47 PM.

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#11    Corp

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 06:54 AM

Doesn't Hezbollah have their own problems at home with the Syria Civil War spilling over into Lebanon? Would seem a poor time to pick a fight with Israel. Unless of course they do it to try and gain more support for themselves and give the various factions a common enemy.

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things: the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth a war, is much worse...A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares more about than he does about his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.

#12    RavenHawk

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 07:20 PM

View Postjeem, on 01 February 2014 - 12:46 PM, said:

Around 1928, Shabtai Levi, a land purchasing agent for Baron de Rothschild wrote in his memoirs, ďHe (the Baron) advised me to carry on in similar activities, but it is better, he said, not to transfer the Arabs to Syria and Transjordan, as these are part of the Land of Israel, but to Mesopotamia (Iraq), He added that in these cases he would be ready to send the Arabs, at his expense, new agricultural machines, and agricultural advisers.Ē
You see they do have the intent to conquer their neighbors.
That isnít intent.  That is candid correspondence between a backer and his purchaser.  Who BTW, is not Israeli nor involved in the government.  Someone like Rothschild is above nationality.  And even if that came to fruition, that wasnít conquering its neighbors.  Rothschild was willing to buy people off and resettle them someplace else.  That is indicating some kind of willingness on the part of the locals.  It was Rothschildís experience that everyman has their price and he had the funds to do it.

Quote

Any way I am expecting an invitation from you to a thread where we can continue our exchange
If you want to continue on, be my guest.  I made my points.  Iím working on a post I hope to get off soon in the Skepticism forum that was born from that thread.

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#13    Yamato

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 06:53 AM

View PostRavenHawk, on 31 January 2014 - 07:39 PM, said:

This is true that Hezbollah won the political battle only because Israel's mission was not the destruction of Hezbollah and they weren't prepared for the number of civilian casualties that would have occurred.  Israel was able to accomplish everything they set out to do.  It was primarily to gather intel.  You know that was successful because a few months later, Syria's nuclear reactor went missing.  Israel was able to isolate the entire country, knocking out roads, rail, runways, communications, command and control with very little loss of life.  This kept civilians from clogging escape routes and out of harm.  Kept the Lebanese military out of the way and kept Hezbollah isolated and sequestered.  I don't think Israel realized how entrenched Hezbollah was in with the civilian population.  Now that they know the extent, they are prepared to go after Hezbollah.  This time you will probably see all roads but one blown up as an escape route for civilians to flee.  The IDF will give civilians every chance to get out of the way.  Whatever confidence that Hezbollah may have had in repelling Israel will be soon forgotten.  Field commanders probably had their forces poised for the coup de grâce but the intel was showing too many civilians in the kill zone and the decision was made to pull back.  The IDF had delivered a devastating blow.  Killing more civilians would not prove anything.  But now the warning has been ignored so Israel will be free to finish the job.

But basing the "Arab Spring" on a false tactical (at best) victory in 2006 is so much pure unadulterated BULL!  What does Yemen or even Tunisia care for the Palestinian?  What do the Egyptian people fear from Israel?  If Israel attacks Egypt, it will be the military it attacks.  Israel is not equipped to conquer nations.  Israel will go after threats and that's it.  If Israel was intent on conquering her neighbors, she probably would have done it already.  But that's the deal, Israel is not her neighbors.

What concerns Israel right now is Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran.  They probably have several plans in place covering various scenarios.  Between the IAFs Eitams and NATO/US AWACS which are up constantly with DPS support, Israel should have enough advanced warning to initiate any of their plans.  Taking out the S-300s was probably a prelude to action against Hezbollah.  Israel probably wanted to take them out before the Olympics.


Well, that would depend on the belligerents; otherwise that is just so much Bullcrap.  What's this "Bonds of Establishment"?  I'll tell you what it is.  It is what allows you to sleep in your bed safe and secure at night.  And I guess you are blind to a "Bonds of Establishment" in the Muslim world that would destroy Israel.  You're ok with that one getting stronger.  You just don't realize the clash of cultures that go on constantly and that that endangers the Bonds of Establishment that keeps you safe.  What you don't realize is that the outcome of the Lebanon War in 2006 was insignificant in the strategic standing.  We just have to realize that you are only reaching with your hatred of Israel and of this country.  The consequences of the Arab Spring are mixed at best.  The pangs of freedom are surely stirring but suppressed within the Ummah.  The Islamic world is still disjointed.
Your lonely Zionist fantasy of some Clash of Civilizations is so much "bullcrap."

You're making a lot of claims about what the IDF will do, and I don't see any material to reference most if not usually all of the bizarre Nostradamusesque statements you constantly make as if you somehow know better than anyone how a bureaucracy is going to act.   You've been trying to start another goddamned world war online for years dude.  Your narrative is absolutely rejected by me.  Always was, still is, probably always will be unless you stop supporting the violation of human rights.

People in the Middle East don't have anything to do with how safe I sleep at night.  People in my own country do.   What I don't want are nations getting technology where they can shoot missiles off half-way around the world and nuke people with, especially belligerent terrorist states like Israel.   Alliances and all the stupid petty politics between States that drive you notwithstanding.   Alliances crumble; but principle endures.

"The power to declare war, including the power of judging the causes of war, is fully and exclusively vested in the Legislature.  The Executive has no right, in any case, to decide the question" ~ James Madison
"Peace cannot be achieved by force, only by understanding."  ~ Albert Einstein
"To deny people their human rights is to challenge their very humanity.   To impose on them a wretched life of hunger and deprivation is to dehumanize them." ~ Nelson Mandela
"I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.  Your Christians are so unlike your Christ." ~ Mahatma Gandhi

#14    RavenHawk

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 05:35 PM

View PostYamato, on 03 February 2014 - 06:53 AM, said:

Your lonely Zionist fantasy of some Clash of Civilizations is so much "bullcrap."
Desperate are we?  Itís hardly lonely or fantasy.  If itís not a clash of civilizations then what do you call it?

Quote

You're making a lot of claims about what the IDF will do, and I don't see any material to reference most if not usually all of the bizarre Nostradamusesque statements you constantly make as if you somehow know better than anyone how a bureaucracy is going to act.  
I know itís your belief that Israel is monstrous murderers.  But this is why I have an idea of what they will do and you donít.  It only makes sense that they want to keep civilians out of the way.  Last time, they isolated them and that didnít work so the next time they will try to herd them to safety.  Why would Israel attack the Egyptian people?  Again this is something you know nothing about.  Israel will target the military if it needs to do that.  And how do I know that Israel is concerned with Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran?  Oh gee, I donít know.  Thatís just a wild guess.  Your better militaries will always have contingency plans available against neighbors, allies and enemies alike.  Itís not that I know better than anyone else, itís that you are clueless.  Will things pan out exactly as I claim, probably not, they rarely do but at least I have an idea of what is going on.

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You've been trying to start another goddamned world war online for years dude.  
Hey dudette, no I have not.  Acknowledging trends leading to the next world war is not quite starting them.  Knowing human nature should prepare us for the next conflict instead of burying our heads in the sand.  The next war is coming and you canít stop it.  Not this one, the lines are drawn, they have been drawn for 1400 years.  The question has always been, who will cross it this time?

Quote

Your narrative is absolutely rejected by me.  Always was, still is, probably always will be unless you stop supporting the violation of human rights.
I donít support the violation of human rights.  That you make the claim shows how out of touch you are.  But when I can anticipate you rejecting something I say, then I know Iím right.

Quote

People in the Middle East don't have anything to do with how safe I sleep at night.  People in my own country do.  
You are wrong on One and right on Two.  Danger is everywhere and you canít be naÔve to it.  That doesnít mean that it should paralyze you either.  But ignoring it doesnít make it go away.  The barbarian is always at the gate.  The greater the nation, the greater the barbarian.

Quote

What I don't want are nations getting technology where they can shoot missiles off half-way around the world and nuke people with, especially belligerent terrorist states like Israel.
This is just another example of your irrational Israel bashing.  Iíd suggest that you stop worrying about Israel and start worrying about the real terrorism.  Israel has the technology and it hasnít used it to wipe anyone off the face of the map.

Quote

Alliances and all the stupid petty politics between States that drive you notwithstanding.   Alliances crumble; but principle endures.
Yes, alliances crumble, thatís why we play the game (of politics and diplomacy) to protect ourselves.  That is one of our main principles.  This nation learned early in its existence of the importance of those petty political games.  It is an enduring truth.

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#15    jeem

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 12:39 PM

View PostRavenHawk, on 02 February 2014 - 07:20 PM, said:

That isn't intent.  That is candid correspondence between a backer and his purchaser.  Who BTW, is not Israeli nor involved in the government.  Someone like Rothschild is above nationality.  And even if that came to fruition, that wasn't conquering its neighbors.  Rothschild was willing to buy people off and resettle them someplace else.  That is indicating some kind of willingness on the part of the locals.  It was Rothschild's experience that everyman has their price and he had the funds to do it.


If you want to continue on, be my guest.  I made my points.  I'm working on a post I hope to get off soon in the Skepticism forum that was born from that thread.
Let me tell you who is Baron.He was a strong supporter of Zionism his generous donations lent significant support to the movement during its early years, which helped lead to the establishment of the State of Israel.
And I would like to start from where we left of.
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"My choice of Muhammad to lead the list of the world's most influential persons may surprise some readers and may be questioned by others, but he was the only man in  history who was supremely successful on both the religious and secular level"
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