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How likely is Ukraine to cause a world war?


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#1    and then

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 05:57 AM

I realize there are far more differences than similarities between the histories of these two events but I have become increasingly more uneasy about how this could play out. WWI began after a series of miscalculations.  Putin has had a spectacular run of diplomatic success in the past couple of years - he is very confident - perhaps too much so.  Obama has stumbled and bumbled regularly and given the impression of some Barney Fife in the president's chair.  If this gets down to sanctions vs counter sanctions the tensions could rise to a point where things get out of control.  I don't mind admitting to being a bit nervous.
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#2    Sir Wearer of Hats

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 06:04 AM

I can't see it being the match that sparks a war, perhaps a future history will call it a stepping stone, a "first step on the road to war", but not the root cause.
However, sanctions may cause havoc, the Russians control the gas pipelines to Europe. If the EU slaps sanctions on Russia, Russia is very likely to respond in kind, and Russia's big enough and ugly enough to survive ignoring the sanctions the EU imposes but Russian sanctions could hurt the EU.

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#3    acidhead

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 06:09 AM

View Postand then, on 15 March 2014 - 05:57 AM, said:

I realize there are far more differences than similarities between the histories of these two events but I have become increasingly more uneasy about how this could play out. WWI began after a series of miscalculations.  Putin has had a spectacular run of diplomatic success in the past couple of years - he is very confident - perhaps too much so.  Obama has stumbled and bumbled regularly and given the impression of some Barney Fife in the president's chair.  If this gets down to sanctions vs counter sanctions the tensions could rise to a point where things get out of control.  I don't mind admitting to being a bit nervous.
Thoughts?c

Yeah... you put too much stock in the holy bible.  Take it from there.



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#4    and then

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 06:48 AM

View Postacidhead, on 15 March 2014 - 06:09 AM, said:

Yeah... you put too much stock in the holy bible.  Take it from there.
Possibly.  But this really isn't mentioned in the bible AFAIK.  I worry more about plain old stupidity and ego between world leaders.  Putin is on a roll and I think he could push too far - simple as that.

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#5    acidhead

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 07:05 AM

You do realize the individual's running Israel are Russian?  Russian jews.



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#6    acidhead

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 07:22 AM

Haha.... you have no idea and either do I..... we know nothing but what we're told.



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#7    and then

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 07:29 AM

Occasionally - not often - but occasionally I do put out opinions that have nothing to do with Israel :)  This Ukraine issue is one of those times.  I just have a feeling of unease that incrementally we are moving toward a conflict that could explode in our faces.  I have no idea if Putin is Jewish but I am aware that many in the western part of Ukraine are historically anti semitic.  This conflict isn't about those issues as far as I can judge - just raw power and ego.

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#8    spud the mackem

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 08:50 AM

Ex KGB leader Putin has put a foot over the "red line" and is daring the West to up the ante,he is probably waiting for a reaction from the West before he decides to move into other ex Russian states.Another cold war is beginning,so lets hope that the Western Politicians dont go in on a war footing which no one can win.

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#9    stevewinn

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 10:20 AM

Anything can happen. because the only way to stop Putin and for Ukraine to gain back Crimea is through military action, sanctions are not going to work. currently the EU & NATO have NO appetite for military action. but sometimes hands are forced, and if Russia moves into the East of Ukraine surely the Ukrainians will have no other option but to use military force and at that point all hell could break loose.

Edited by stevewinn, 15 March 2014 - 10:21 AM.

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#10    and then

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 03:24 PM

View Poststevewinn, on 15 March 2014 - 10:20 AM, said:

Anything can happen. because the only way to stop Putin and for Ukraine to gain back Crimea is through military action, sanctions are not going to work. currently the EU & NATO have NO appetite for military action. but sometimes hands are forced, and if Russia moves into the East of Ukraine surely the Ukrainians will have no other option but to use military force and at that point all hell could break loose.
That is what worries me.  Once the shooting begins many things can happen and most of them are negative. I doubt NATO would get involved but if they do then the world could be in for some serious trouble.

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#11    spud the mackem

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 03:28 PM

View Poststevewinn, on 15 March 2014 - 10:20 AM, said:

Anything can happen. because the only way to stop Putin and for Ukraine to gain back Crimea is through military action, sanctions are not going to work. currently the EU & NATO have NO appetite for military action. but sometimes hands are forced, and if Russia moves into the East of Ukraine surely the Ukrainians will have no other option but to use military force and at that point all hell could break loose.
The Ukraine has just a little over 2 million population,they aren't big enough to take on the Bear,so Ukraine has lost before they start, apart from a few resistance fighters who won't last long so the old saying comes to mind "don't poke the bear".

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#12    Helen of Annoy

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 03:50 PM

View Postspud the mackem, on 15 March 2014 - 03:28 PM, said:

The Ukraine has just a little over 2 million population,they aren't big enough to take on the Bear,so Ukraine has lost before they start, apart from a few resistance fighters who won't last long so the old saying comes to mind "don't poke the bear".

January 1st 2013 census: 45,553,000 people.
That's 45 and half million people.

Maybe you thought of Crimea alone, that indeed has roughly 2 and half million.
A little less than that, but if we count the staff and civil employees of Russian naval base and Russian invasion forces then it’s closer to 2 and half :lol:

Edited by Helen of Annoy, 15 March 2014 - 03:54 PM.

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#13    and then

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 04:56 PM

View Postspud the mackem, on 15 March 2014 - 03:28 PM, said:

The Ukraine has just a little over 2 million population,they aren't big enough to take on the Bear,so Ukraine has lost before they start, apart from a few resistance fighters who won't last long so the old saying comes to mind "don't poke the bear".
Spud I think you are correct about the Russian army being a superior fighting force.  But I also know what a determined group of p***ed off people can do in an insurgency.  Putin's ego is writing checks the Russian army won't be able to cash long term. Tomorrow when the referendum is voted and Crimea secedes, Ukraine has said they will cut all electricity and water services.  Apparently this infrastructure is localized to one small area - like an umbilical cord you might say.  Russia isn't going to want to have to deal with such a crisis so they will probably descend on that area immediately and I suspect if shooting is going to begin it will begin there.

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#14    Stellar

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 05:22 PM

View Postand then, on 15 March 2014 - 04:56 PM, said:

Spud I think you are correct about the Russian army being a superior fighting force.  But I also know what a determined group of p***ed off people can do in an insurgency.  Putin's ego is writing checks the Russian army won't be able to cash long term. Tomorrow when the referendum is voted and Crimea secedes, Ukraine has said they will cut all electricity and water services.  Apparently this infrastructure is localized to one small area - like an umbilical cord you might say.  Russia isn't going to want to have to deal with such a crisis so they will probably descend on that area immediately and I suspect if shooting is going to begin it will begin there.

Im concerned about something similar. The rest of the world hasn't done anything militarily to stop whats happening in Crimea, so Putin knows that the chances of them using force against Russia if he enters the rest of Ukraine is pretty slim. If Crimea votes to become part of Russia, and the Ukraine cuts all electricity and water services, that might be justification enough for Putin to enter the east and restore those services.

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#15    andy4

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 05:37 PM

Let's just hope that China and Russia never become military allies. They could do some very serious damage to the rest of the world and have the Western Hemisphere completely isolated. Russia rolls into Europe, and china takes out japan and Australia, while the cash strapped USA tries to figure out where to get money from to pay for the war. Iran then disrupts the Middle East and blocks the strait of Hormuz. Think about this, it's out there, but a possibility. Russia and china wait for winter and roll into North America, when the Bering strait freezes over, invading North America for the first time ever without having to be restricted to using ships and airplanes. Crazy, I know, but I wouldn't say impossible.

The USA would basically have to help fight a war on 3 fronts, with a downsized military and no money left.

Edited by andy4, 15 March 2014 - 05:39 PM.

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