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Russia on the move

europe; russia ; putin; relaignment

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#1    DeWitz

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 06:23 PM

Today it is reported that Russia is flexing its might with military maneuvers in Karelia, near the southern border of Finland with the USSR  Russia. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have also been mentioned as of interest to Putin's desire for map rearrangement. Intel from a former advisor to Putin indicates the Russian leader is deeply interested in sculpting some of Western Europe's borders to the advantage of the Russian Federation.

How seriously do we take him? What is an appropriate response from Brussels, NATO, Washington and the rest of the 'usual suspects.?' Is Crimea a one-shot wonder, or the start of an insidious pattern?

I didn't outlive my WWII veteran father, dodge the theoretical bullet of global nuclear was (so far) and see my son's time and energy wasted (along with many others) in Baghdad just to see Putin do his Second Coming of Ivan the Terrible imitation. But my concern and outrage mean nothing. What's a responsible response?

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#2    Yes_Man

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 06:42 PM

This was reported about 2 weeks ago, as far as i know they have withdrawn.

and can you post a link please?


#3    Taun

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 06:42 PM

Well... SInce all three Baltic states are paid up members of NATO... It could get dicey...

If Putin makes a military move on them... NATO will have no option but to get actively involved...


#4    stevewinn

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 07:11 PM

View PostDeWitz, on 31 March 2014 - 06:23 PM, said:

Today it is reported that Russia is flexing its might with military maneuvers in Karelia, near the southern border of Finland with the USSR  Russia. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have also been mentioned as of interest to Putin's desire for map rearrangement. Intel from a former advisor to Putin indicates the Russian leader is deeply interested in sculpting some of Western Europe's borders to the advantage of the Russian Federation.

How seriously do we take him? What is an appropriate response from Brussels, NATO, Washington and the rest of the 'usual suspects.?' Is Crimea a one-shot wonder, or the start of an insidious pattern?

I didn't outlive my WWII veteran father, dodge the theoretical bullet of global nuclear was (so far) and see my son's time and energy wasted (along with many others) in Baghdad just to see Putin do his Second Coming of Ivan the Terrible imitation. But my concern and outrage mean nothing. What's a responsible response?

the responsible response is what the EU, NATO is doing now, because there are two options, diplomatic and militarily. either way the EU, NATO, cannot win. regardless of what people think. and to ask the question would going to war with Russia over Ukraine be worth it?. im sorry but when we come to the nitty gritty i dont give two hoots for the people of Ukraine, to the degree of putting ourselves and our interests at risk.

Its remarkable the way people didn't see this coming - I even posted on here - in response to the Pro Russian Ukrainian president being ousted followed by the EU installing their hand picked man, in a fashion no different to the referendum in Crimea. - i said in my reply Russia will move on Crimea and annex the region - This entire crisis was entirely predictable, for decades long before Putin was in power - NATO and for that matter the EU dare not include Ukraine in any future expansion, careful not to antagonise Russia, and guess what this sensible approach was pushed aside in the cause of EU expansion.

Tthe EU knew full well what they were doing, that's why they only offered a EU association agreement, they presumed the poking (association agreement) of the bear wouldn't be enough to awaken it, in the same way a full offer of EU membership would. they got it totally wrong - and Russia moved in its own interest, the West as been doing exactly the same thing all over the place, how dare we criticise the Russians. the Russian invasion of Crimea didn't need shock and awe, or the killing of thousands of innocent citizens to achieve its geopolitical ambitions.

So far Russia holds all the cards. the EU/West are playing with the big boys now. no-Iraqi/Afghan/Libyan pushover here. That's why Obama's first action was to take the option of military action off the table. while the West dilly dallies with media sound bites the Russians are controlling the reality on the ground by military means.

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#5    stevewinn

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 07:16 PM

View PostTaun, on 31 March 2014 - 06:42 PM, said:

Well... SInce all three Baltic states are paid up members of NATO... It could get dicey...

If Putin makes a military move on them... NATO will have no option but to get actively involved...

Dont be so sure, article 5 will go out the window. all members have to agree like in the case of 9/11. you can bet you will not get a unanimous decision if any of the Baltic states are invaded. plenty of loopholes exist for such a scenario.

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#6    DeWitz

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 07:47 PM

View PostYes_Man, on 31 March 2014 - 06:42 PM, said:

This was reported about 2 weeks ago, as far as i know they have withdrawn.

and can you post a link please?


Svenskadagbladet.se  (and)  msn.com   (both today, 3/31/14).

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#7    Mikko-kun

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 08:52 PM

The russian military movement in karelia was planned well before this, a regular military exercise they let people know early on. I'd be more interested on what Putin's former advisor has to say about annexing former soviet parts to Russia. link

View Poststevewinn, on 31 March 2014 - 07:16 PM, said:

Dont be so sure, article 5 will go out the window. all members have to agree like in the case of 9/11. you can bet you will not get a unanimous decision if any of the Baltic states are invaded. plenty of loopholes exist for such a scenario.

That may be, I wouldn't know but it's probably better to be a NATO-country in this situation than not to be one, if Russia is on the move. It's hard for me to say how well would Finland fare alone against Russia, but our noob ministers have chosen to further cut expenses on the military budget in favor of helping the southern european governments who screw themselves anyway while Russia does major upgrades on their equipment. Bloody brilliant. It's not like we could repel Russia for long militarily, but we could wage a guerilla war and that'd be bad for them. And when they last invaded Finland and governed us it didn't go exactly peachy, the high-up guy russians appointed was assassinated by a finnish native. We still have too much antipathy towards Russia in that sense for Putin to get something actually useful from here. He knows he needs to win the conquered country's people to his side to make things work, that why he's being like this in Crimea. It wouldn't work here nor in baltian countries I bet, not here at least.

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#8    Ashotep

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 09:23 PM

I think Russia would like nothing better than bring back some of the former soviet countries into his lair but I think he will lay low for a while before he tries anything else.  People in the region had better be building up their own military instead of relying solely on NATO.


#9    and then

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Posted 31 March 2014 - 11:32 PM

View Poststevewinn, on 31 March 2014 - 07:16 PM, said:

Dont be so sure, article 5 will go out the window. all members have to agree like in the case of 9/11. you can bet you will not get a unanimous decision if any of the Baltic states are invaded. plenty of loopholes exist for such a scenario.
Then NATO is finished officially.  Maybe it's time has come and gone anyway.  But if the west cowers in front of naked aggression the price will eventually be paid somewhere - it always has been and that will continue.  Would Putin risk nuclear war over his plans?  Not intentionally I think, but this just shows how power really works...  It MATTERS what type of leaders we elect in the west.  It MATTERS what leaders say and do.  Obama is a feckless paper tiger and the world knows it - or al least they BELIEVE  IT. Now there is a real danger if he tries to change his mind and make a stand.  Realistically if Putin were to dash into Finland and across Ukraine into Moldova the west will do nothing except moan and posture.  It will be a fait accompli and eventually will be accepted.  The lesson will be learned by the 3 new NATO countries and they will accept "membership" into Putin's new alliance without a shot being fired.  Watch it happen - and it all is because of a weak American president.

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#10    Mikko-kun

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 12:18 AM

View Postand then, on 31 March 2014 - 11:32 PM, said:

Then NATO is finished officially.  Maybe it's time has come and gone anyway.  But if the west cowers in front of naked aggression the price will eventually be paid somewhere - it always has been and that will continue.  Would Putin risk nuclear war over his plans?  Not intentionally I think, but this just shows how power really works...  It MATTERS what type of leaders we elect in the west.  It MATTERS what leaders say and do.  Obama is a feckless paper tiger and the world knows it - or al least they BELIEVE  IT. Now there is a real danger if he tries to change his mind and make a stand.  Realistically if Putin were to dash into Finland and across Ukraine into Moldova the west will do nothing except moan and posture.  It will be a fait accompli and eventually will be accepted.  The lesson will be learned by the 3 new NATO countries and they will accept "membership" into Putin's new alliance without a shot being fired.  Watch it happen - and it all is because of a weak American president.

I disagree with one thing here, the last thing. Sure a strong militant USA president would be a nice repellent but if the countries themselves dont keep a credible defense force nor form a mutual military alliance instead of sticking on their own or relying on NATO (why the hell not form a scandinavian or baltian defensive alliance?) it's their own fault, no need to point fingers at USA even though big bad Russia is neighbor. If you ain't got what it takes to defend yourself you shouldn't live in a big country's neighborhood.

And by having what it takes to defend yourself as a country, I dont mean just the military power but the strategic eye in a lot of perspectives: economical consequences, diplomatical consequences, how well you can get the country's population to make things hard for the conquistador country without having concentration camps emerged... things like that. It's not just about military power, it's a weight between risks and rewards, and you gotta do your best to make the overall deal to be ****ty enough for the big bad Russia to not want to do it.

Edited by Mikko-kun, 01 April 2014 - 12:21 AM.

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#11    stevewinn

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:02 PM

View Postand then, on 31 March 2014 - 11:32 PM, said:

Then NATO is finished officially.  Maybe it's time has come and gone anyway.  But if the west cowers in front of naked aggression the price will eventually be paid somewhere - it always has been and that will continue.  Would Putin risk nuclear war over his plans?  Not intentionally I think, but this just shows how power really works...  It MATTERS what type of leaders we elect in the west.  It MATTERS what leaders say and do.  Obama is a feckless paper tiger and the world knows it - or al least they BELIEVE  IT. Now there is a real danger if he tries to change his mind and make a stand.  Realistically if Putin were to dash into Finland and across Ukraine into Moldova the west will do nothing except moan and posture.  It will be a fait accompli and eventually will be accepted.  The lesson will be learned by the 3 new NATO countries and they will accept "membership" into Putin's new alliance without a shot being fired.  Watch it happen - and it all is because of a weak American president.

Putin is no fool. everything Russia wants to achieve will be achieved. the time to worry about Putin is when he faces troubles at home which forces him into drastic action to hold on to power. but seeing how he's facing no prospect of losing power in Russia we can all rest easy in our beds. unless your a former soviet state. but that's the price History tells them to pay. what have these countries been doing for the last twenty odd years when it come to defence? the square root of F all. despite all the money spent by NATO and the USA. The Russians if they desired could cut Estonia off in 40 minutes. it would take NATO weeks to get a force together. by that time Ivan could be steaming all over the parish.

banging on about Obama being weak, the combined forces of NATO hasn't deterred Putin. What exactly did you expect Barack Obama to do?  sometimes political leads just have to accept they are no longer the masters dictating policy, but the servants to it. and thats the case with Russia. the West/NATO are beaten. but not out. Crimea is lost - now is the time to negotiate with Russia and gauge their future ambitions and limit them. the drawing of the Red line needs to be done, for me that red line would be if Russia invaded Finland or Poland those countries in between will act as our buffer zone. buying us time to think.

Edited by stevewinn, 01 April 2014 - 07:03 PM.

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#12    Sir Wearer of Hats

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 09:56 PM

View PostTaun, on 31 March 2014 - 06:42 PM, said:

Well... SInce all three Baltic states are paid up members of NATO... It could get dicey...

If Putin makes a military move on them... NATO will have no option but to get actively involved...
NATO won't be able to do a thing without the US, and they're in the middle of another "maybe we should just worry about ourselves at home for a while" phase, basically just "talking sternly" to recalcitrant nations like Russia.

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#13    Yamato

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 03:41 AM

This is THE litmus test for NATO.  If Obama and European leaders can't tell Putin we'll turn Moscow into a lake and mean it, he might annex chunks of eastern Ukraine next, to start the real political collapse in the rest of the country.   Gas bills are going up 50% on May 1st.  Ukrainians better enjoy their April.   Putin appears ready to employ economic warfare on Ukraine.  

Obama's weak!  Come on you guys let's get American and European silos in fighting trim!   Let's put all of our nuclear subs in range of Russian targets and lock them in.   If Putin still doesn't back down, we launch the greatest air campaign mankind has ever seen!   As if we haven't done that already, but competing against yourself is fun!   We'll have to bomb at least 96% of Crimeans, those who voted incorrectly.   And besides, Christians, how much longer do we have to wait for Jesus Christ to return?  Let's hurry it up a little bit!   Let KGB warlord Vlad the Putin be the opportunity for Armageddon you've been waiting for!

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#14    DeWitz

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 01:07 PM

View PostYamato, on 02 April 2014 - 03:41 AM, said:

This is THE litmus test for NATO.  If Obama and European leaders can't tell Putin we'll turn Moscow into a lake and mean it, he might annex chunks of eastern Ukraine next, to start the real political collapse in the rest of the country.   Gas bills are going up 50% on May 1st.  Ukrainians better enjoy their April.   Putin appears ready to employ economic warfare on Ukraine.  

Obama's weak!  Come on you guys let's get American and European silos in fighting trim!   Let's put all of our nuclear subs in range of Russian targets and lock them in.   If Putin still doesn't back down, we launch the greatest air campaign mankind has ever seen!   As if we haven't done that already, but competing against yourself is fun!   We'll have to bomb at least 96% of Crimeans, those who voted incorrectly.   And besides, Christians, how much longer do we have to wait for Jesus Christ to return?  Let's hurry it up a little bit!   Let KGB warlord Vlad the Putin be the opportunity for Armageddon you've been waiting for!

View PostYamato, on 02 April 2014 - 03:41 AM, said:

This is THE litmus test for NATO.  If Obama and European leaders can't tell Putin we'll turn Moscow into a lake and mean it, he might annex chunks of eastern Ukraine next, to start the real political collapse in the rest of the country.   Gas bills are going up 50% on May 1st.  Ukrainians better enjoy their April.   Putin appears ready to employ economic warfare on Ukraine.  

Obama's weak!  Come on you guys let's get American and European silos in fighting trim!   Let's put all of our nuclear subs in range of Russian targets and lock them in.   If Putin still doesn't back down, we launch the greatest air campaign mankind has ever seen!   As if we haven't done that already, but competing against yourself is fun!   We'll have to bomb at least 96% of Crimeans, those who voted incorrectly.   And besides, Christians, how much longer do we have to wait for Jesus Christ to return?  Let's hurry it up a little bit!   Let KGB warlord Vlad the Putin be the opportunity for Armageddon you've been waiting for!

Admiral Yamato, I hope your oral surgery for the removal of your tongue from your cheek was successful!

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