The rough estimate is approx. 80 light years (the article I will link to states that we have been broadcasting radio waves since the 1920's). Our own galaxy is approx. 100,000 light years in diameter, so you can imagine how insignificant that distance is in the greater scheme of things.
"The argument that the distances are too vast does not hold water in my book."The argument holds an ocean of water in my book, considering the implications in that single, simple fact shown above. It is estimated that the Milky Way Galaxy contains between 200 to 250 billion stars. You can use the 'Drake' equation to theorize the number of intelligent species that possibly inhabit just
our galaxy. Again, I stress the word 'theorize', because we obviously cannot say for sure how precise the equation really is, but it will give you an idea of the incredible distances involved when speculating about the probability of contact with an alien race. Click on the link below and scroll about a third of the way down the page to the
"Calculating the Probability of Intelligent Life in the Milky Way Galaxy" heading.
CLICK HEREAlthough it is only statistical data gleaned from an unproven theoretical formula, it is data that nonetheless suggests impossible distances between 'possible' intelligent species, no matter how advanced they may be. It may be true that we still have much to learn about ourselves and the universe in general, but there's nothing like the stark, cold reality of hard numbers to convince any one of the improbability of contact with any alien intelligence, now or in the past. The analogy would be very similar to trying to locate a specific grain of sand in a desert, it's that simple, and just as extraordinarily difficult.
Magikman :sg
Skeptical scrutiny is the means, in both science and religion, by which deep insights can be winnowed from deep nonsense. ~ Carl Sagan
"...man has an irrepressible tendency to read meaning into the buzzing confusion of sights and sounds impinging on his senses; and where no agreed meaning can be found, he will provide it out of his own imagination." ~ Arthur Koestler