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Miracles


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#31    hyperactive

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 05:10 AM

everything is probability.

everything true is just something that has not yet been falsified. blush.gif  

that is why i am misunderstood around here.  i don't believe in anything really, i just work with probabilities. rolleyes.gif   grin2.gif


"He who knows not and knows not he knows not, he is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows he knows not, he is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - awaken him.
He who knows and knows that he knows, he is wise - follow him. "
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#32    :rollseyes:

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 12:05 PM

What about things that have 0 probability of happening? Things that all laws of physics say that are impossible? oh, and what about when people actually predict that one of those 'low probability ocurrences' will happen on a certain day at a certain hour, how could they know it?


#33    hyperactive

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 12:33 PM

if it happened it is not a 0 probability event, is it?  

how many predictions are made?  how many actually are even reasonably accurate?  

it is not a game of picking and choosing the outcomes you like and conveniently dismissing/forgetting/hiding all the failures.


"He who knows not and knows not he knows not, he is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows he knows not, he is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - awaken him.
He who knows and knows that he knows, he is wise - follow him. "
Arabia


#34    :rollseyes:

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 01:11 PM

Quote


if it happened it is not a 0 probability event, is it?  

how many predictions are made?  how many actually are even reasonably accurate?  

it is not a game of picking and choosing the outcomes you like and conveniently dismissing/forgetting/hiding all the failures.


It is a 0 probability event when acording to modern science something cannot have happened (and I mean 'can nothappen' not 'can not be explained'). The only explanation for the phenomen was that people lied or faked and sometimes that is also impossible.

how many predictions are made?  how many actually are even reasonably accurate? enough.

Quote


it is not a game of picking and choosing the outcomes you like and conveniently dismissing/forgetting/hiding all the failures.


I'm not talking about nostradamus centurias I'm talking about when three 12 years old sheepherds in the middle of no where (who didn't even know one single passage of the Bible once they didn't know hjow to read and the cerimonies were all in latin) predicted that in the 13th day of ?October I think? the sun would go wild.

lets see: probability of them knowing it would happen - 0%
                   "         it happening according to physic laws - 0%
                   "         that 70.000 people have lied about that - 10^-100%

I think I have just come up with a formula for miracles lol   tongue.gif


#35    hyperactive

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 01:36 PM

not a miracle.  if i were to nit-pick saying "the sun would go wild" could mean many things, prove the farmers knew nothing in advance, etc.

probability that given the number of predictions that some of them will pan out >0

probability that people will misinterpret, embellish, etc >0

wink2.gif   yes.gif


"He who knows not and knows not he knows not, he is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows he knows not, he is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - awaken him.
He who knows and knows that he knows, he is wise - follow him. "
Arabia


#36    Paranoid Android

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 02:18 PM

Thus, hyper, your personal belief affecting the outcome.  According to your construct, miracles are impossible, and accordingly, any such event classified as a "miracle" is simply a low probability event, whether it is scientifically possible or not.

Regards, PA

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#37    hyperactive

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 02:28 PM

when did science discover the answers to everything, PA?

are you talking observer effect?


in other words, if something happens, it is possible.  it is only those things that have not ever happened that we postulate could happen and allow to stand until falsified.  rolleyes.gif


"He who knows not and knows not he knows not, he is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows he knows not, he is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - awaken him.
He who knows and knows that he knows, he is wise - follow him. "
Arabia


#38    Paranoid Android

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 02:40 PM

Ah, but herein lies the problem.  If hypothetically, x is impossible, so if it were to ever happen it would be a miracle.  X then happens.  Thus it is possible, and therefore not a miracle, but simply a wrong conclusion based on incomplete scientific data.

See where this is leading?

Regards, PA

Posted Image

My blog is now taking a new direction.  Dedicated to my father who was a great inspiration in my life, I wish to honour his memory (RIP, dad) by sharing with the world what he had always kept to himself.  More details, http://www.unexplain...showentry=27811

#39    :rollseyes:

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 02:51 PM

Quote


not a miracle.  if i were to nit-pick saying "the sun would go wild" could mean many things, prove the farmers knew nothing in advance, etc.

probability that given the number of predictions that some of them will pan out >0

probability that people will misinterpret, embellish, etc >0

wink2.gif   yes.gif


it was me who said "the sun would go wild"  tongue.gif read my previous posts about the miracle of the Sun and you'll se what I mean by it, i just did want to waste time describing it. Again, as i've said before most of the people present were not farmers but medics, jornalists, anti-clerical republican state officers, etc.

"probability that given the number of predictions that some of them will pan out >0"

happy.gif true but i said "probability of them knowing it would happen" (by scientifical means)

"probability that people will misinterpret, embellish, etc >0"

people didn't embelish it because 100% of the people present described exactly the same thing and those reports were quite detailed (also, have in mind that there were jornalists and scientists there)


#40    hyperactive

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 02:57 PM

Quote


Ah, but herein lies the problem.  If hypothetically, x is impossible, so if it were to ever happen it would be a miracle.  X then happens.  Thus it is possible, and therefore not a miracle, but simply a wrong conclusion based on incomplete scientific data.

See where this is leading?

Regards, PA

no.  if hypothetically something is of a very low probability then by def it is still undetermined.  if it does happen it confirms the hypothesis, the more often it happens, the confirmation for the hypothesis.

it is never a miracle.


"He who knows not and knows not he knows not, he is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows he knows not, he is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - awaken him.
He who knows and knows that he knows, he is wise - follow him. "
Arabia


#41    Paranoid Android

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 03:10 PM

Look, I understand what you're trying to say.  But (and just to draw on an earlier argument), you stated:
QUOTE(hyperactive)

and just to throw it back to you the other way: lets say somebody really did verifiably walk on water. it still is not a miracle, but a demonstration of an ability. just because 99.99999....% of people can not do it, does not mean that it is anything more than a rare ability. just because we do not know how does not mean we should succumb to superstitious foolishness.
This, by all accounts is a scientifically impossible event.  But even if it were to happen, according to you, it would only be a low-probability event, since it has happened.  Only the impossible happening is a miracle, and if it happens then it is possible, thus not a miracle.

just my take on the matter.

Regards, PA

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My blog is now taking a new direction.  Dedicated to my father who was a great inspiration in my life, I wish to honour his memory (RIP, dad) by sharing with the world what he had always kept to himself.  More details, http://www.unexplain...showentry=27811

#42    :rollseyes:

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 03:14 PM

Quote


no.  if hypothetically something is of a very low probability then by def it is still undetermined.  if it does happen it confirms the hypothesis, the more often it happens, the confirmation for the hypothesis.

it is never a miracle.


come on, you must be more inteligent than that. So, if I would say that a decapitated person would enter your room in the next five minutes, cast a fireball and steal your underwear and it happened you would steal say it was some low probability quantum disorder that caused it, a probability so low that there wouldn't be enough space in the universe to write the number of '0's between the '0,' and '1'.  blink.gif That's not skepticism, thats blind belief.

Edited by :rollseyes:, 24 December 2005 - 03:15 PM.


#43    hyperactive

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 03:15 PM

but you are making the assumption that science "has all the answers", that science is absolute.

science is a process.  it is only scientifically true until it is scientifically falsified.

edit: rolls,

when headless zombies walk into my room and steal my underwear i will assess how somebody slipped halucinogenics into my food.  My first process would be blood analysis for said drugs.

Edited by hyperactive, 24 December 2005 - 03:18 PM.


"He who knows not and knows not he knows not, he is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows he knows not, he is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - awaken him.
He who knows and knows that he knows, he is wise - follow him. "
Arabia


#44    :rollseyes:

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 03:32 PM

Quote


but you are making the assumption that science "has all the answers", that science is absolute.

science is a process.  it is only scientifically true until it is scientifically falsified.

edit: rolls,

when headless zombies walk into my room and steal my underwear i will assess how somebody slipped halucinogenics into my food.  My first process would be blood analysis for said drugs.


lol, you have a point there

but what if, let's say, that zombie would die (again), and his corpse could be analysed, and if they didn't found any drugs on you and what if it was caught on cameras?

(I hope everyone managed to realise that I don't believe in headless zombies who cast fireballs and steal clothes, it was just a bad exagerated example, ok? blink.gif)

Edited by :rollseyes:, 24 December 2005 - 03:39 PM.


#45    hyperactive

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Posted 24 December 2005 - 03:46 PM

well, then we would have to proceed in attempting to determine what re-animated the dead.

(why do i feel like we are engaging in dialoge from a "living dead" movie?)


"He who knows not and knows not he knows not, he is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not and knows he knows not, he is simple - teach him.
He who knows and knows not he knows, he is asleep - awaken him.
He who knows and knows that he knows, he is wise - follow him. "
Arabia





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