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Global warming: Some inconvenient glaciers


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#1    __Kratos__

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 12:02 AM

Al Gore says the world's glaciers are melting because humanity has emitted too much CO2.

However, a new peer-reviewed study shows that in South America's Andes Mountains the glaciers' advances and retreats have not been governed by CO2, but by small variations in the sun's intensity.

The study, led by P.J. Polissar of the University of Massachusetts, found that Andean glaciers expanded only four times during the 600 years of the Little Ice Age, which lasted from 1250 AD to 1850. Each of those glacier advances occurred during a solar minimum, when the sun's lowered activity apparently dropped the mountain-top temperatures by 2–4 degrees C and increased precipitation by about 20 percent.

The Polissar team's report, "Solar Modulation of Little Ice Age Climate in the Tropical Andes," was recently published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The team studied the glaciers' moraines -- piles of rocks, soil, tree trunks and other glacial debris left behind when the glaciers retreated. Then they matched the glacial debris with the sediment layers in nearby mountain lakes. The pronounced seasonality in the Andes precipitation allows the researchers to count years in the sediments and precisely date the glacial advances.

The Andes glacier study not only links glacial advances and retreats with the sun, but emphasizes that the earth's glaciers have often retreated -- and even disappeared -- during past centuries, long before humans built cars and smokestacks.

Most of the Andes glaciers must have disappeared during the Holocene Warming that ended just 5,000 years ago. Temperatures then were as much as 2 degrees C warmer than today's. So far, the Modern Warming has produced about only 0.8 degrees C of total temperature rise in its 150 years.

The sun has been linked to earth's climate changes for the past 400 years -- by sunspot records. Early astronomers noted that the two coldest periods of the Little Ice Age occurred when there were virtually no sunspots on the sun. The Sporer Minimum lasted from 1420 to 1570, and the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1710.

The solar-earth linkage came to the fore again in the 1980s, when researchers brought up the first long ice cores from Greenland and the Antarctic. The 400,000 years of temperature history contained in the ice cores clearly showed a moderate, natural cycle that raised temperatures at the latitude of New York and Paris by about 2 degrees C, and then lowered them by a similar amount. The cycles averaged about 1500 years in length. Carbon 14 and beryllium 10 isotopes in the ice clearly linked this temperature cycle to the sun.

The question for Al Gore is not whether our temperatures are rising; the key question is why they're rising. Antarctic ice cores tell us that temperatures and CO2 in the atmosphere have tracked closely together through recent Ice Ages, but the CO2 changes have lagged behind the temperature changes by about 800 years.

Higher temperatures have produced more atmospheric CO2, rather than CO2 producing higher temperatures! That's because most of the planet's CO2 is stored in the oceans, and as the seawater warms, it can't hold as much CO2.

If CO2 is the driving climate force, why did the earth begin warming in 1850, while human CO2 emissions didn't start to really expand until about 1940? Mr. Gore doesn't tell us the answer.

Why did the earth's temperatures decline from 1940 to 1975, even as CO2 emissions were soaring? Mr. Gore doesn't say.

How warm will New York get in the Modern Warming? Apparently Mr. Gore can't tell us, but a total of 2 degrees C seems likely -- based on the history in the ice cores.
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Good to see that laid out to understand a bit more.

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#2    A+Certified

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 01:59 AM

it seems like its attacking al gore more than global warming, lol


#3    __Kratos__

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 02:45 AM

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it seems like its attacking al gore more than global warming, lol


It is from a politcal site. grin2.gif But I've seen global warming threads up in here and science so only fair the other side gets a little bit heard.

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#4    Sherapy

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 03:18 AM

Kratos and what is the other side????I just saw the movie AN Inconvient Truth, the so called other side is propaganda with the sole intent to create doubt...Which was also done with tobacco....

the propaganda was to take scientific  fact and turn it into a theory.. .. It took real well in Middle America they call it a myth( every other country  including  California, Oregon and some of the upper eat coast states are doing something) the political power isn't concerned nor is   Australia ( I don't know why) this is from the movie..... grin2.gif  Al Gore got every study ever written on global warning looking for such  claims,  928 different articles written on it and out of those do you know how many said there is nothing to be concerned with???? ZERO......I have been on those threads Kratos and have said to infer there that global warning is a myth is propaganda........Go see the movie kratos, Its an education in itself.... if you walk out of there and still feel your goggle articles are more valid well........

Edited by Sheri berri, 18 June 2006 - 03:20 AM.




#5    Avinash_Tyagi

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 03:41 AM

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It is from a politcal site. grin2.gif But I've seen global warming threads up in here and science so only fair the other side gets a little bit heard.



Fair enough, but you can't tell me that lowering our emmissions output would be a bad thing.

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#6    Avinash_Tyagi

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 03:42 AM

Sorry double post

Edited by Avinash_Tyagi, 18 June 2006 - 03:44 AM.

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#7    frogfish

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 04:25 AM

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I have been on those threads Kratos and have said to infer there that global warning is a myth is propaganda........Go see the movie kratos, Its an education in itself.... if you walk out of there and still feel your goggle articles are more valid well........

A movie wouldn't hold much truth either.

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#8    __Kratos__

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 04:34 AM

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Kratos and what is the other side????I just saw the movie AN Inconvient Truth, the so called other side is propaganda with the sole intent to create doubt...Which was also done with tobacco....

the propaganda was to take scientific  fact and turn it into a theory.. .. It took real well in Middle America they call it a myth( every other country  including  California, Oregon and some of the upper eat coast states are doing something) the political power isn't concerned nor is   Australia ( I don't know why) this is from the movie..... grin2.gif  Al Gore got every study ever written on global warning looking for such  claims,  928 different articles written on it and out of those do you know how many said there is nothing to be concerned with???? ZERO......I have been on those threads Kratos and have said to infer there that global warning is a myth is propaganda........Go see the movie kratos, Its an education in itself.... if you walk out of there and still feel your goggle articles are more valid well........


Mmhmm...I'm sure it is the truth that you're reading.  rolleyes.gif

I'd rather eat off my left arm then see that movie that was made by Gore. When you are that far on the other side of the opinion scale you can't be unbias.

Did you even read the article above? I notice you're not fighting against that but rather using other threads and other unrelated products.

Quote


Fair enough, but you can't tell me that lowering our emmissions output would be a bad thing.


And the US isn't lowering their emmissions output?

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#9    frogfish

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 04:37 AM

Also the fact that there has only been a change of .6 degrees, which is NOT a lot!

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#10    Sherapy

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 09:23 PM

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Also the fact that there has only been a change of .6 degrees, which is NOT a lot!

Frog see the movie or read the book then decide, To argue something you haven't seen, to say .6 degree isn't much is absurd....Did you read what i said, al Gore is quite educated regardless of what you feel about him personally and has been speaking out on this for a long time....the movie is a documentary based on fact and where it isn't its said.....

kratos forming a informed opinion would require you too know Gores position, why not see the movie then decide????? he tells you his position.....

Yes i read your report on glaciers it is in error, again who has the biggest reason to create doubt????Why are you opposed to growth ????Are you buying into the "jobs will be lost arguement????????  let me tell you this the very industry we are trying to protect the automobile industry is failing all on its own..The companys growing and thriving ( toyota and honda)are the very ones we are so afraid are gonna come is a steal our market already has and the reason is we refuse to make the changes that are needed even in states that want too i have a toyota its a better car hands down MY Dad is A GM man he said too as far as quality and economy the chinese have us beat....No Kratos the Us is doing little compared to all other countrys to acknowledge the crisis the planet is in. Actually the US contributes the most to the problems....Do you know the importance of glaciers???if so you woulds see the absurdity of the article.....I've been around long enough america (with the exception of a few states California, Oregon, and the upper east coast states are standing indeepndently  as states to effect change ) isn't real interested in doing anything differnet and so often happens it will have to be drug kicking and screaming to change...but change it will...There is no question, the most recent issue was the hole in the ozone layer the same fighting and stuff happened and the same with the tobacco industry, yet The clean air act has stopped the ozone layer getting worse we have done remarkable things and still can.... The earth is our home we have no where else to go, money or planet HMMMMM which one is more important...whats your answer kratos?????




#11    frogfish

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 09:35 PM

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Frog see the movie or read the book then decide, To argue something you haven't seen, to say .6 degree isn't much is absurd....Did you read what i said, al Gore is quite educated regardless of what you feel about him personally and has been speaking out on this for a long time....the movie is a documentary based on fact and where it isn't its said.....

No doubt the climate is changing, but it has ALWAYS been changing. Natural fluctuations in temperature have always been going on. This is where the .6 degrees come in.

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#12    GreenmansGod

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Posted 18 June 2006 - 11:44 PM

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I'd rather eat off my left arm then see that movie that was made by Gore.


Not very open minded of you,  Kratos.  Who will you believe?  

New Scientific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly  

Much larger changes are projected, affecting global climate
http://www.acia.uaf.edu
WASHNGTON November 8 2004—IThe Arctic is warming much more rapidly than previously known, at nearly twice the rate of the rest of the globe, and increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are projected to make it warmer still, according to an unprecedented four-year scientific study of the region conducted by an international team of 300 scientists.
At least half of the summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to melt by the end of this century, along with a significant portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as the region is projected to warm an additional 7 to 13°F (4-7°C) by 2100. These changes will have major global impacts, such as contributing to global sea-level rise and intensifying global warming, according to the final report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA).
The assessment was commissioned by the Arctic Council (a ministerial intergovernmental forum comprised of eight nations, including the United States, and six Indigenous Peoples organizations) and the International Arctic Science Committee (an international scientific organization appointed by 18 national academies of science).
The assessment’s findings and projections are being released today and will be presented in detail at a scientific symposium in Reykjavik, Iceland, November 9-12, 2004.
The assessment’s projections are based on a moderate estimate of future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and incorporate results from five major global climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“The impacts of global warming are affecting people now in the Arctic,” says Robert Corell, chair of the ACIA. “The Arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. The impacts of climate change on the region and the globe are projected to increase substantially in the years to come.”
Highlighted Findings
• In Alaska, Western Canada, and Eastern Russia average winter temperatures have increased as much as 4 to 7°F (3-4°C) in the past 50 years, and are projected to rise 7-13°F (4-7°C) over the next 100 years.
• Arctic sea ice during the summer is projected to decline by at least 50 percent by the end of this century with some models showing near-complete disappearance of summer sea ice. This is very likely to have devastating consequences for some arctic animal species such as ice-living seals and for local people for whom these animals are a primary food source. At the same time, reduced sea ice extent is likely to increase marine access to some of the region’s resources.
• Warming over Greenland will lead to substantial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, contributing to global sea-level rise at increasing rates. Over the long term, Greenland contains enough melt water to eventually raise sea level by about 23 feet (about 7 meters).
• In the United States, low-lying coastal states like Florida and Louisiana are particularly susceptible to rising sea levels.
• Should the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, it is likely that polar bears and some seal species would be driven toward extinction.
• Arctic climate changes present serious challenges to the health and food security of some Indigenous Peoples, challenging the survival of some cultures.
• Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, and the Assessment has documented that many of these changes have already begun.
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment was formally initiated in 2000 at the Ministerial Meeting of the Arctic Council at Point Barrow, Alaska as a joint project between the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee. As specified in the Barrow Declaration, the goal of the ACIA is to “evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability and change and increased ultraviolet radiation, and support policy-making processes and the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” The Arctic Council directed ACIA to address “environmental, human health, social, cultural, and economic impacts and consequences, including policy recommendations.”

http://www.solcomhouse.com/arctic.htm

Same thing is going on in Antarctica.

http://www.solcomhouse.com/Pig.htm



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#13    Sherapy

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Posted 19 June 2006 - 01:29 AM

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No doubt the climate is changing, but it has ALWAYS been changing. Natural fluctuations in temperature have always been going on. This is where the .6 degrees come in.



Just see the movie that is not where the .6 degrees comes in and Dark just posted alot of info......





#14    Avinash_Tyagi

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Posted 19 June 2006 - 06:54 AM

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And the US isn't lowering their emmissions output?


Didn't say they weren't, however i've talked to some who seem to regard any change in our output as the end of the American way of life, when I first read your post I thought you were in that camp, my apologies if I was mistaken.

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#15    frogfish

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Posted 19 June 2006 - 06:52 PM

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Just see the movie that is not where the .6 degrees comes in and Dark just posted alot of info......

What to trust...a scientific journal or a movie made by a politician...

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