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Arctic summer could be ice-free by 2040


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#1    heathyr

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Posted 13 December 2006 - 08:23 PM

arctic2.jpg    If you're looking to photograph a polar bear hopping sea ice floes on your next summer cruise, you better hurry because in 30 years, the Arctic Sea could be free of ice.

Simulating the climate with computer models, researchers analyzed how global warming could affect sea ice in the future. The results, published in the Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, indicate that if greenhouse gases continue being released at their current rate, most of the Arctic basin will be ice free in September by 2040.

Additionally, winter ice, now about 12 feet thick, will become less than 3 feet thick. One previous study predicted that the region will have no summer ice by 2060, another study forecasts that the Arctic will be icy up until 2105.

The rapid meltdown, result of a warming globe, will itself accelerate the heating of the oceans, according to the latest study.

"As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice," said study lead author, Marika Holland, a scientists from NCAR. "This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region."

Additionally, ocean circulations—affected by global warming—are driving warm ocean currents into the Arctic.

"We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far," Holland said. "These changes are surprisingly rapid."

However, the future of the Arctic doesn't have to be so grim: running simulations with less greenhouse gases, the researchers found that the summer sea ice melted at a much slower rate.

"Our research indicates that society can still minimize the impacts on Arctic ice," Holland said.


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#2    ~Doppleganger~

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Posted 15 December 2006 - 04:26 AM

Outchy...

In my city (Quebec, Canada) the first permanent snow has fell at the end of November... We dont have an inch of snow in the street and, when I was young, at this time of the year, the street was full of snow and the pile of snow were everywhere... Thats a sign of the problem with the weather that is going more and more hot every year...

English is not my native language, so my posts can seem a little bit blurry, sometimes. :)

#3    Princess Serenity

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Posted 15 December 2006 - 06:12 PM

I don't think the artic will be 'water.' Because I just dismiss everything about it. Of course that my opinion.

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#4    avs76

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Posted 16 December 2006 - 03:29 AM

Quote

I don't think the artic will be 'water.' Because I just dismiss everything about it. Of course that my opinion.

I don't understand what you are saying. Are you dismissing it even in the face of scientific evidence? They are suggesting there will be no ice in the sea. Probably still some snow or ice on the islands. Please elaborate.


#5    positron

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Posted 16 December 2006 - 04:01 AM

Quote

arctic2.jpg    If you're looking to photograph a polar bear hopping sea ice floes on your next summer cruise, you better hurry because in 30 years, the Arctic Sea could be free of ice.

Simulating the climate with computer models, researchers analyzed how global warming could affect sea ice in the future. The results, published in the Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, indicate that if greenhouse gases continue being released at their current rate, most of the Arctic basin will be ice free in September by 2040.

Additionally, winter ice, now about 12 feet thick, will become less than 3 feet thick. One previous study predicted that the region will have no summer ice by 2060, another study forecasts that the Arctic will be icy up until 2105.

The rapid meltdown, result of a warming globe, will itself accelerate the heating of the oceans, according to the latest study.

"As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice," said study lead author, Marika Holland, a scientists from NCAR. "This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region."

Additionally, ocean circulations—affected by global warming—are driving warm ocean currents into the Arctic.

"We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far," Holland said. "These changes are surprisingly rapid."

However, the future of the Arctic doesn't have to be so grim: running simulations with less greenhouse gases, the researchers found that the summer sea ice melted at a much slower rate.

"Our research indicates that society can still minimize the impacts on Arctic ice," Holland said.

If people don't start responding to this,then it will be the end of the world as we know it. Sad but oh so true!


#6    jesspy

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Posted 16 December 2006 - 04:20 AM

^respond i think its to late we have left it too long its over pack your bags build a raft and say goodbye to the world as we know it. If all this could have happened in about 50 years i hate to see the world 50 years from now. we could plant all the trees we want or switch off all the appliances and factories in the world it doesnt change the fact that the polution is still in the sky and is still causing problems
A show on tv about global warming said that right now we are feeling the effects of polution created in the 1970s bascically it takes a while for pollution and stuff to get into the air and cause chemical reactions that destroy the air and ozone. Well the show said that this process is speeding up and we will feel the effects of the pollution we make now within ten years of its creation. In other worrds ten years from now it will be warmer the n ever before and the ice caps will melt faster.

Also you have to look at this from the point of view of the natural warmers who belive that the ice caps are melting cause thats what they do they melt then freeze melt then freeze etc and its just a natural process.

Mind tricks don't work on me, only money.

#7    positron

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Posted 16 December 2006 - 04:50 AM

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^respond i think its to late we have left it too long its over pack your bags build a raft and say goodbye to the world as we know it. If all this could have happened in about 50 years i hate to see the world 50 years from now. we could plant all the trees we want or switch off all the appliances and factories in the world it doesnt change the fact that the polution is still in the sky and is still causing problems
A show on tv about global warming said that right now we are feeling the effects of polution created in the 1970s bascically it takes a while for pollution and stuff to get into the air and cause chemical reactions that destroy the air and ozone. Well the show said that this process is speeding up and we will feel the effects of the pollution we make now within ten years of its creation. In other worrds ten years from now it will be warmer the n ever before and the ice caps will melt faster.

Also you have to look at this from the point of view of the natural warmers who belive that the ice caps are melting cause thats what they do they melt then freeze melt then freeze etc and its just a natural process.

Only some of us but be hopeful


#8    girty1600

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Posted 16 December 2006 - 05:13 AM

Ice is evil and it makes me cold so good riddance to it.  Just kidding, I like ice in my drinks.

Climate shifts have happened in the past and the only factor that makes our present situation different is that humans have a chance to slow the effects by minimizing the cause. It will only take about 200 years but if everyone rides a bike to work, recycles and stops wearing fur then we can all help to make this world a better place.

Or at least it would make some of us feel better.

Edited by girty1600, 16 December 2006 - 05:14 AM.


#9    frogfish

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Posted 16 December 2006 - 05:20 AM

Global Climates are always changing, but the problem is humans are accelerating these changes...or even causing climate changes to take an unexpected turn.

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#10    avs76

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Posted 16 December 2006 - 11:12 PM

Quote

arctic2.jpg    If you're looking to photograph a polar bear hopping sea ice floes on your next summer cruise, you better hurry because in 30 years, the Arctic Sea could be free of ice.

Simulating the climate with computer models, researchers analyzed how global warming could affect sea ice in the future. The results, published in the Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, indicate that if greenhouse gases continue being released at their current rate, most of the Arctic basin will be ice free in September by 2040.

cont'd...

Some scientitsts believe that the changes we are seeing are naturally occurring, and are all part of a natural cycle.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/...10615071248.htm

I am reminded of past ice ages, and of the flood (deluge) myths. Surely these extremes in climate change weren't the result of pollution. Just throwing it out there. unsure.gif

Edited by avs76, 16 December 2006 - 11:21 PM.


#11    jesspy

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Posted 17 December 2006 - 12:12 AM

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Ice is evil and it makes me cold so good riddance to it.  Just kidding, I like ice in my drinks.

Climate shifts have happened in the past and the only factor that makes our present situation different is that humans have a chance to slow the effects by minimizing the cause. It will only take about 200 years but if everyone rides a bike to work, recycles and stops wearing fur then we can all help to make this world a better place.

Or at least it would make some of us feel better.



true do all that and we need population control one child per couple or if we have to steralization. Its not only pollution causing the problem its over population as well there is just not enough space. If the polar caps do melt nearly all of indias population will need to find a new place to live close to 1 billion people will be looking for land the world just wont have.

Mind tricks don't work on me, only money.




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