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2007 to be 'Warmest on Record'


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#1    Lottie

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 02:38 PM

The world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007, the UK's Met Office says.
An extended warming period, resulting from an El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, will probably push up global temperatures, experts forecast.
They say there is a 60% chance that the average surface temperature will match or exceed the current record from 1998.
The scientists also revealed that 2006 saw the highest average temperature in the UK since records began in 1914.

The global surface temperature is projected to be 0.54C (0.97F) above the long-term average of 14C (57F), beating the current record of 0.52C (0.94F), which was set in 1998.
The annual projection was compiled by the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia.

El Nino effect.

Chris Folland, head of the Hadley Centre's climate variability research, said the forecast was primarily based on two factors.
The first was greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, he said.
"This is a statistical method; it is a number that represents the heating of the atmosphere.
"Greenhouse gases cause heating, while aerosols cause cooling," Professor Folland told BBC News.
"The other factor which allows us to make a forecast that whether one year is significantly different from the next is the effect of the El Nino."

El Nino events are marked by the arrival of unusually warm waters off the north-western coast of South America, and are described as the largest influence on the year-to-year variability of the Earth's climate.
This year's potential to be a record breaker is linked to a moderate strength El Nino already established in the Pacific Ocean.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that it was expected to continue into the first quarter of this year, which would have a knock-on effect.

"There is a big lag between the El Nino and the warming of global temperatures - it takes about four months or perhaps a bit longer," Professor Folland explained.
"We have two methods of forecasting the effect of the El Nino. One is a statistical method based on two patterns of sea surface temperatures in the El Nino region, and the other is a complex mathematical model."
He said that the forecast was then fine-tuned by looking back over data from the previous 50 years.
"We have actually run this forecast three times, updating it every month... and it is completely stable."
The 60% probability that 2007 would set a new record meant that it "was more likely than not", he concluded.

The Hadley Centre has been issuing the annual forecast for the past seven years and says it has just a 0.06C margin of error.
In December, the WMO released provisional data on the global average surface temperature for 2006. It estimated that last year was 0.42C (0.75F) above the 1961-1990 average, making it the sixth warmest on record.
However, the UK experienced the warmest year on record in 2006, according to Met Office figures released alongside the global forecast.
The meteorologists said the mean temperature for the year was 9.7C (49.5F), 1.1C (2F) above the long-term average, based on the period between 1971-2000.

Source BBC News.

Quote

However, the UK experienced the warmest year on record in 2006, according to Met Office figures released alongside the global forecast.


That doesn't suprise me, it was hot hot hot last summer. Interesting article.




#2    Mr Black

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 02:40 PM

Get out the flip flops, barbies and Frisbies.............its gonna be a belter! (My fav pastime)

This thread has made me a happy camper! Thanks

Edited by ledley, 04 January 2007 - 02:41 PM.

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#3    Aztec Warrior

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 02:43 PM

Well, it wasn't hot here in Mexico. But, yes El Nino is the biggest influencer on weather patterns next to La Nina.  And I also think the article stated the warmest since 1914, when records began. That's not a long time in comparison to the history of the planet.

But I'm sure we can all agree, that before humans kept records, the planet underwent cycles of heating and cooling.

Edited by Aztec Warrior, 04 January 2007 - 02:44 PM.

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#4    frogfish

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 02:55 PM

I hope the temp is "just right" here in the states.

Edited by frogfish, 04 January 2007 - 02:55 PM.

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#5    The Silver Thong

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 03:05 PM

Quote

Get out the flip flops, barbies and Frisbies.............its gonna be a belter! (My fav pastime)

This thread has made me a happy camper! Thanks



Ha I have no idea what a belter is but I'm guessing it's fun in the sun.  I know where I live we have winters now that barely get below freezing,( we get chinooks all the time)   we get very little snow, actually right now all we have is brown grass showing, I think the trees are getting tricked into thinking it's spring lol. Tommorow we are going to have a high of plus 8 C.  I can look out my window and see the rocky mountains and man they are getting tons of snow wet and heavy stuff, the highway between calgary and vancouver was closed for the last 2 days because the military was blasting avalanche area's and the highways were covered. I like the short term effects because to tell you the truth I hate the cold and was thinking of becoming an illegal immigrant in Mexico lol. The long term though paints a pretty bad picture, this will be a problem that our children and our childrens children will have to live with and try to fix,because we are doing pretty much jack squat about it now. But in the mean time break out the sun tan lotion and enjoy wink2.gif

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#6    Mr Black

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 03:09 PM

Belter = Great, awesome, wicked........etc etc

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#7    Raptor

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 03:11 PM

I wonder what the ecological effects will be?

I can't wait for the summer though, hopefully it'll be hotter than last year. yes.gif


#8    frogfish

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 03:25 PM

heat doesn't bother me...After moving from India, everywhere in the States seem cold. Either because of the higher latitude or lack of humidity. But heat DOES bother the fishing ohmy.gif Hopefully it won't be "too hot".

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#9    Purplos

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 04:21 PM

Oh gosh.... must move north... must move north.....

Embrace the impossible.

#10    Cinders

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 04:24 PM

Thank you Lottie for the article..
It does not surprise me - and it's sad how people still don't take this seriously.
I posted a few links and vids on page one and on page two here:
http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum...showtopic=85038

The earth has a very delicate balance.. Not too hot, not too cold.
Have you seen this? It's pretty interesting called:
Goldilocks and the Greenhouse The Science of Global Warming
(QuickTime or Flash Required)
http://www.livescience.com/php/video/playe...GoldilocksGreen

At the rate we're going, we'll look like Venus one day.. Hopefully before we do, we will have a way to flee off planet earth and head to Mars.

Still happy about hotter days ahead and flip flops?

Edited by Cinders, 04 January 2007 - 04:24 PM.

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#11    eckogangsta

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 04:49 PM

Quote

Still happy about hotter days ahead and flip flops?


yes.


#12    Mattshark

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 06:09 PM

The negative effects are high though, lower crop yeilds meaning more expensive food. Not that there is much natural land left in the UK but it will not fair well, polar movement of species and increased depleation of fish stocks, further melting of the polar ice caps and more movement of the gulf stream meaning the UK will get much much colder.

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#13    Bella-Angelique

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Posted 04 January 2007 - 06:28 PM

There is that big ice shelf that broke off Canada that could go drifting out into shipping lines. I ahve no idea how long it would take it to melt, but someone somewhere may think it is another great excuse to raise prices on some things.

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#14    AtlantisRises

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Posted 05 January 2007 - 12:17 AM

It is terrible in my little corner of Australia at the moment. It is like being in a blast furnace at times.

We have had the worst drought years of a long time recentally and it seems to be just getting much worse.

If the temperature stays in the 35+ Range for to long I think I will end up living in my pool and by winter will be as wrinkled as a prune.

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#15    War Eagle

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Posted 05 January 2007 - 01:22 AM

You ain't kidding AR!





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