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I've seen a couple of specials about this on Discovery Channel & The Science Channel. The Yellowstone Mega-volcano or Caldera volcano covers most of the area inside what is designated as Yellowstone park. Over the past several years, siesmological and sattelite data have shown that the overall land mass over the caldera has raised roughly 5 inches, showing that pressure is building up under the caldera. However, we have never seen a volcano of this type erupt in recorded history...
Actually we have: Thera!
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...so there is no way to predict when it will.
Again, we do! Look at Thera!
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The current estimates put the eruption at any time within the next 10,000 years, meaning it could be 10,000 years from now, it could be tomorrow...
Don't scare me!
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...it could be going on right now.
A bit dramatic.
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The estimates also show that the area surrounding the caldera will be covered w/ pyroclastic flow, making them uninhabitable & deadly within moments. Magma, gas, ash, and dust will be thrown from 20km to 50km into the air. All of the US east of the Mississippi will be covered in 6-12 inches of ash. East of the Mississippi to the Appalachains will get 3-9 inches of ash, and East of the Appalachians will get 1-3 inches. There are also likely to be longer term global environmental issues as gas and dust spread out and slowly disspiate and fall.
The only record we have of the impact of this type of eruption is the fossil record of the Toba eruption in Indonesia. Using geological records along w/ mitocondrial DNA testing, we have been able to determine that the worldwide human population at the time of the eruption went from a few hundred thousand to less than 10,000. However, this took place early in our prehistory, so there is no written record, and, thus, it is arguable as to wether the eruption itself was responsible.