QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

It seems to me that, once again, turbonium makes a incorrect association between the term "risk" and the term "danger". The two are related but not the same.
No, I'm well aware of what they mean, and their relationship. Read on for details...
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

I would bet that Turbonium has never taken part in risk assesment.
You'd lose the bet.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

It is something I did a fair bit of in my previous job. To make a risk assessment it is necessary to determine what hazard exists, what the worst case scenario of that hazard is and what the likelihood of that worst case scenario is. Turbo takes the first and second second step but fails totally to take the third.
Again, that's wrong. As you'll see....
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

Their is no attempt to qualify the risk. If Turbo lives his life the way he expects the astronauts to behave on the moon then he will never get out of bed and he will certainly have never crossed a road.
We only know a small fraction about the lunar surface (and the Moon in general). That means the risks - speciically, all
potential risks - cannot be quantified or qualified to any significant degree.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

In order to quantify the risk to the astronauts in kneeling onto the moon we have to know the following things:
Again, "kneeling" implies less danger than a
knee-drop, which is what the astronaut actually did in the video clip. But moving along...
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

How likely is it that sharp rocks will puncture an Apollo space suit?
MID, for one, agrees with me that it's possible.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

How likely is it that an astronaut will kneel on such a rock?
A
knee-drop, you mean? We know there are many rocks hidden, either fully or partially, on the lunar surface. The sizes and numbers of rocks vary from area to area, but we still have very little data on quantity, dispersal pattern, type, size, and subsurface depth of these rocks.
So we know that it's possible, but we can't say what the
likelihood is with any certainty. It would vary with the area, but that doesn't tell how likely or unlikely it is in quantifiable terms.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

What is the benefit of the astronaut kneeling?
Minor, in regard to the knee-drop done in the video clip. He did it to help his crewman pick up a dropped sample bag. There were other, safer methods they could have used to pick up the bag.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

Is the risk of the action too great when compared to the benefit?
Yes!! Without doubt.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

The last question can only be quantified by calculating the first two. Turbonium has made no effort to quantify the first two and has leaped straight to the last, hence this is faulty risk assessment.
Again, we can only go on what we already know, and don't know. We know that sharp, jagged rocks are common on the Moon, as the samples show. We also know that many rocks are hidden below the dust - subsurface. But we don't know much in terms of quantity, dispersal pattern, type, size, and subsurface depth of these rocks.
We know that the dangers do exist, but we don't know much more than that. I think that a knee-drop, just to pick up a sample bag, is a completely foolish to do under the known conditions.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

I should point out that an acceptable risk is not no risk at all, as Turbo seems to believe. It will depend on the benefits. For example actions with chemicals which would be deemed too risky for me may very well be considered acceptable for a fire fighter.
I agree. But as I've explained, this is not an example of an acceptable risk to take. Not in any way whatsoever.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

What I have described above is a formal risk assessment, my colleagues and I carried out dozens in my old lab, some times with surprising (and counter intuitive results) but we all make a similar, mental calculation every time we carry out any action (even if it is a subconscious, "if I do this will it hurt?") Sometimes we get it wrong (as with Turbos knee), but John Young will have gone through this process himself. He was in a better position to calculate the risk then anyone else, including those at mission control. There were only two human being that could clearly see if there were sharp rocks there, Young and Charlie Duke.
The terrain was (and is) largely unknown, and someone walking around for an hour or two on it does not make them an instant expert. But again, the most important point to understand is that
there is no way to know if sharp rocks are hidden below the dust. Not even if you're just a few feet away from them.
QUOTE(Waspie_Dwarf @ Sep 25 2007, 04:20 PM)

Even if Turbo is correct and this action carried unacceptable risks it does not qualify as evidence that Apollo was fake, only that astronauts were human.
I agree it does not prove Apollo was fake. In itself, it cannot prove that.
But it does raise serious questions about the authenticity of Apollo. The astronaut doing the knee-drop should have been immediately told by ground control that his actions were dangerous, or at very least, unwarranted risk-taking. And they should have made sure he understood how critical it is for him to move around much more slowly and carefully, etc. and to never repeat such a reckless activity. Why weren't they the least bit concerned about it?
That was the type of thing that should have been said - during the actual mission. Furthermore, since that time, nothing has ever been said about it being dangerous, etc. by NASA. Apparently, we can only conclude that those antics are still not considered by NASA to have been dangerous, or unnecessarily risky.
And that doesn't jibe with the known facts.
The dangers were unknown, and NASA surely realized that. But if there were no dangers, it's because it was being staged. And because NASA knew that there were no dangers, they weren't concerned about the antics of the astronauts. So they didn't warn the astronauts at the time, and have never said it was dangerous since then.